Katie is the slight favourite to beat Lara A which I'd agree with. Lara is more accomplished on clay and while she is higher ranked and did have a good win over Dolehide in QR1, she has had some heavy defeats on hard courts these past few weeks - 1 and 0 last week to King in Wuhan quals, 0 and 1 vs Strycova at the US Open, 1 and 2 vs Petkovic in Connecticut etc. Katy D even managed to beat her 2 and 2 a few months ago, although that was on grass so not as relatable.
I'd make Diyas 50/50 for Hev, but if she can beat Kenin then that will put her in good stead.
Main draw is out, and as usual Jo has a tough starter - Julia Georges seeded 10. And Naomi Osaka is in her section as well, if she makes it to the thrd round.
Even with a MD first round win, Katie won't quite break the top 100, regardless of what other players do - it would take her to 611 points, still 7 short of Kr Plskova who is 100 on live rankings. Edging closer though !
Ah yes, I hadn't seen the MD yet and hadn't realised/ remembered she would only get another 10 points for the round 1 win, because it is a R64 draw. It seems strange that she gets 20 points for a QR1 win, but will only get another 20 points added for two more wins, including in the MD!
A Premier Mandatory 64 player draw R1 win earns 65 points ( 10 points is for initial MD competitors losing in R1 ).
Katie's current 16th counter is 5 points so she has so far added 15 net points for a 586 total. Qualification plus a MD R1 win would put her on :