Using the June list as an approximation to map points to positions, I have Beth as being around 450 in the shadow rankings, or around 415 with last weeks 9 points added.
Nuria may have a much lower WTA ranking under the new system than Beth, but she has a much greater chance of being in the main draw than Beth as she would be almost certainly be accepted to one of the main draw places reserved for the Top ITF players. Beth is 18th in the entry list under the current system. If she was 18th by WTA ranking order in the new system, she would have to qualify while Nuria was in the main draw in a reserved place for top ITF ranking entrants.
Oh my, this is going to be such fun getting to grips with it all and the implications
And we're 'just' observing, not players with the implications for them.
In a way it seems to justify the $25K policy of GB Tennis and the LTA
Free 1 pointers from entry in a $25K count a massive premium now.
Also, it hammer countries like Spain, Belgium Romania & the Netherlands, that run lots of $15K for their internal development - much as we ask the LTA to do. SUre, their players have had competition, but their rankings are diminished in the new system.
Whereas the US, that rarely runs $15K, broadly gets the most unneccessary and unwarranted promotion of their players scores for always running $25K and above.
And, as mentioned, resorts like Sharm, Hammamet, Heraklion and Antalya have signalled intent to reduce the availabililty of events at the early levels. So, fewer events, more competitive $15K battle royales, but less people inclined to take up the sport?
Not providing an appropriate entry entry level for so many aspiring home players is still not justified whatever the system and whatever we are moving to!!
So just forget them because 15K points will now 'just' count to the transition tour? Whatever tour, it is this year and no doubt will still be next year ( for these 15Ks the remaining aspiring players can find ) a very important and useful level for so many.
Isn't the new ITF system aimed at dissuading aspiring players though? The players that, 'give it a go to see how far they can get'?
It seems designed to ruthlessly winnow the field to leave only those of a certain level. There is to be no professional equivalent to EFL League 1 or 2 (or, for Indiana, Scottish Legue 1 & 2) and below.
If the professional bodies that run the sport aren't interested in aspiring players except those that demonstrate the greatest potential at a young age, can we blame the LTA for having a system that fits in to the new landscape, however much we may disagree with either, or both?
Nine points (so far) from here less 2 to drop from Dublin will give Beth 81 points, and new CH of around 450 when the points go on. Beth was around 840 this time two years ago
I read something about certain countries now being more willing to host 15ks - because there's no longer the need to run three back to back, and single events are fine. So that might provide a certain balance with the Sharms etc. if they are truly looking to quit.
Although I don't see quite why - the events are the same, same money, gives points, they've just renamed the points (like lower WTA and higher WTA, which is pretty much what there is anyway).
Given, as red squirrel said, there are guaranteed spots in challengers (or high ITF women's events) for the top ITF applicants, then there may well be quite a lot of players still targetting ITF points and it won't be the 'ambitious' ones who have to go to 25ks, as paulisi indicates, it might be the ambitious ones who do ITFs, knowing that will give them more chance of getting in the main draw of a challenger (via the guaranteed ITF spots) than through having a low number of actual ATP/WTA points.
How it balances out will be interesting - it will be a problem if it stagnates completely and doesn't allow any fluidity. But then there are a lot of players who stagnate at 800, or 1000, or wherever, as it stands at the moment.
It's an 'interesting' jump into the void, for sure.
I'm going to try and work out the stagnation 'bands' of all the WTA ranked players since the 1990's. I know more or less where I think they lie.
Why the ITF/WTA are so insistent to eliminate the lower ones, whilst the 150, 250, 500 ish ones remain, I'm not sure. How small a pool is small enough, but not too small?
Certainly the LTA are already having real 'success' in reducing our ranked women.
May be down to 29 by 20th August as Emma Hurst and Olivia Nicholls are due to drop out. And such as they and the others 'at risk' may well be the kind of players they wish to dissuade.
I understand it to some extent and reducing the numbers I guess for there are a heck of a lot of pros, in the widest sense of that term, out there, arguably too many. I just have some concerns that many UK players may in future be dissuaded that might have gone on to untested much greater levels. Particularly in the UK our players don't really need much more dissuation without such continental leagues and money tournaments to fall back on / keep them going until they say reach 25K level. Point taken that CD has made that many could/should be prepared to travel / base themselves more for these with so little changing in the UK environment.