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Post Info TOPIC: Brexit
Brexit Voting [54 vote(s)]

Voted Leave - Would Still Vote Leave
18.5%
Voted Leave - Would Now Vote Remain
1.9%
Voted Remain - Would Still Vote Remain
68.5%
Voted Remain - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Leave
0.0%
Didn't Vote - Would Now Vote Remain
7.4%
Other
3.7%


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Brexit


I think that it is naive to think that all of the non-voters would vote for "your team" as M Macron does: I have always assumed that non-voters would largely split along the same lines as voters, therefore if more people vote the proportion of the result likely remains the same. This is like confirmation bias: assuming if more people vote, your team will win - it is due to ascribing likely reasons for non-voting based on one's own world view.

I think for every voter that didn't vote against†Brexit because they couldn't be bothered (or that thought the answer was obvious) there is likely a similar voter that didn't vote for Brexit. Not everyone that sat at home was convinced that Hilary Clinton would win because Mr Trump wouldn't, a lot probably thought that Mr Trump would win without their vote.

There is, however, a difference between those that don't vote through indifference and those that don't vote because they have been discouraged/ barred/ disenfranchised: when poor/ black/ female/ labour voters are discouraged from voting for example. But this is a different situation, and not the one M Macron is apparently addressing.



-- Edited by christ on Tuesday 19th of April 2022 04:47:55 PM

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Coup Droit wrote:
emmsie69 wrote:

I think it's incredibly naive to think that phrasing the question differently would change people's attitude. Life is becoming more polarised thanks to SM and particularly Twitter. Look at the reaction to JKR and her GC views. There is no space for nuance. Christ's post in the general election thread is exactly how I feel about Politics. I'm also sick and tired of the negativity, politicians should stop banging on about how awful the alternative is and start focussing on why people should vote for them


†So you are dismissing decades of research of universities and government policy bureaux? ††


†I think it is a little unfair for picking on emmsie for doing this, when the Prime Minister of the country at the time apparently did the same.

... and it is not a foregone conclusion that he did so through laziness. Despite my poor view of politicians (including Mr Cameron) I believe that he will have listened to a lot of advice before settling on the phraseology of the question: just because you (or other folk that wanted Brexit to fail) think a better phraseology could have been chosen doesn't necessarily make it the case.

I believe that it is possible (although not likely) that one day the Remainers may actually concede that the country actually wanted what they voted for, and that it wasn't actually a colossal mistake that came about through stupidity/ laziness/ ineptitude/ racism/ xenophobia. Similarly it may actually be that the majority of Americans actually wanted what Mr Trump promised, and a majority of Brits (although the election process is a bit more removed) actually like what Mr Johnson brings to the table.

I remain completely unconvinced in the ability of politicians to run a bath, but also consider that it really doesn't make much difference what they do: and social media represents the views of a tiny, tiny, minority magnified beyond all reason by the positive feedback loop that it generates.



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christ wrote:

I think that it is naive to think that all of the non-voters would vote for "your team" as M Macron does: I have always assumed that non-voters would largely split along the same lines as voters, therefore if more people vote the proportion of the result likely remains the same. This is like confirmation bias: assuming if more people vote, your team will win - it is due to ascribing likely reasons for non-voting based on one's own world view.

I think for every voter that didn't vote against†Brexit because they couldn't be bothered (or that thought the answer was obvious) there is likely a similar voter that didn't vote for Brexit. Not everyone that sat at home was convinced that Hilary Clinton would win because Mr Trump wouldn't, a lot probably thought that Mr Trump would win without their vote.

There is, however, a difference between those that don't vote through indifference and those that don't vote because they have been discouraged/ barred/ disenfranchised: when poor/ black/ female/ labour voters are discouraged from voting for example. But this is a different situation, and not the one M Macron is apparently addressing.


†Completely agree.

I know you'd hate it - and I could see why†smile†- but I actually think voting should be compulsory. Like paying taxes.†

To avoid exactly the problems you indicate (and other ones).†



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Coup Droit wrote:
christ wrote:

I think that it is naive to think that all of the non-voters would vote for "your team" as M Macron does: I have always assumed that non-voters would largely split along the same lines as voters, therefore if more people vote the proportion of the result likely remains the same. This is like confirmation bias: assuming if more people vote, your team will win - it is due to ascribing likely reasons for non-voting based on one's own world view.

I think for every voter that didn't vote against†Brexit because they couldn't be bothered (or that thought the answer was obvious) there is likely a similar voter that didn't vote for Brexit. Not everyone that sat at home was convinced that Hilary Clinton would win because Mr Trump wouldn't, a lot probably thought that Mr Trump would win without their vote.

There is, however, a difference between those that don't vote through indifference and those that don't vote because they have been discouraged/ barred/ disenfranchised: when poor/ black/ female/ labour voters are discouraged from voting for example. But this is a different situation, and not the one M Macron is apparently addressing.


†Completely agree.

I know you'd hate it - and I could see why†smile†- but I actually think voting should be compulsory. Like paying taxes.†

To avoid exactly the problems you indicate (and other ones).†


†Yes, that's just what the country needs. ALL of the uninformed and indifferent to play eeny meeny miney mo. What can possibly go wrong?



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emmsie69 wrote:

I think it's incredibly naive to think that phrasing the question differently would change people's attitude. Life is becoming more polarised thanks to SM and particularly Twitter. Look at the reaction to JKR and her GC views. There is no space for nuance. Christ's post in the general election thread is exactly how I feel about Politics. I'm also sick and tired of the negativity, politicians should stop banging on about how awful the alternative is and start focussing on why people should vote for them


I enjoy using Twitter for updates on things such as Tennis and Football but the negativity I picked up from there when I browsed further started to really get me down.† Its a slow trickle at first, but if left unchecked it can really affect your whole perspective on things.

I have always had an interest in the UK manufacture sector and by chance followed a body that constantly put out positive news, I realised by contrast what a positive effect this had on me.† In fact, sometimes the whole ray of sunshine in an otherwise depressing place.† A quick search for positive news/good news type things brought me people who post about the environment, politics, the news and all manner of topics.† Now each day I scroll through and read about 40 new jobs created in one place, a species repopulating a woodland, a life changing project helping in Africa, a factory upgrading and expanding etc etc.† Yes the world has its problems, many of them and big ones too.† But I find it also full of hope and good things happening.† Its important to what you feed your mind......garbage in, garbage out as they say†biggrin



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I know others may interpret things differently but the economic statistics that just came out from the Office of National Statistics are pretty worrying:

Retail sales fell 1.4% in March, far higher than expected

Consumer confidence index from GfK fell by 7 points from -31 to -38 for April

Inflation is practically 7%

It's true that, as Shhh points out, the UK is doing well in manufacturing and was a positive in the numbers. And that's great.

The problem is, though, that manufacturing is only 20% of our economy, with services being the other 80%. And services are being slammed (mainly because they were not covered in the Brexit agreement)

House of Commons Research: "The service industries accounted for 80% of total UK economic output (Gross Value Added) and 82% of employment in April-June 2021."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/

The Services Sector Output numbers are down way more than expected (-4.3 points)

This is not pandemic or Ukraine war related as they are the opposite of many figures from Europe that have just been released where, post pandemic, most are posting strong private sector growth figures (although inflation is high there too), and in the US.







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Thats all concerning stuff Coup.† I do like to feed in lots of positive stuff even if for my own mental health....theres loads of it out there, he're some samples quickly grabbed without checking sources†smile

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: Swiss luxury watchmaker Breitling opens a store in Belfast in Northern Ireland, its first store on the entire island of Ireland.

DONCASTER SHEFFIELD AIRPORT: Mega shed and business hub deals landed by Peel L&P at Doncaster Sheffield Airport development. Panattoni to build 417,570 sq ft logistics site to meet demand in 'one of the UK's hottest distribution locations'

UK LAMB EXPORTS: UK lamb exports recovered to pre-Brexit levels in February. Exports totalled 6,300 tonnes, up 37% year-on-year, HMRC data shows. During JanuaryFebruary 2022, UK exports totalled 10,400 tonnes, up 27% compared with the first two months in 2021, reports FarmingUK.

WILTSHIRE: British fulfilment company Huboo creates 400 jobs at huge new warehouse in Chippenham. The facility is the biggest the firm has opened in the UK to date.

Indian tariffs of 150% on British whisky make our product prohibitively expensive even for the rapidly growing, increasingly wealthy Indian middle class. The Scotch Whisky Association says that under a UKIndia FTA, exports of whisky to India could rise by £1bn over five years.

The UK will begin signing trade deals with individual US states from next month, with an agreement with Texas set to be inked by October.† Trade minister Penny Mordaunt said the government was in discussions with 20 US states including California and Utah to sign the mini-trade deals



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I like the lamb export one, Shhh - that's good.

Because it's a percentage, a reflection of what was before and what is now, the trend.

I don't really give much credit to the one-off stories - they're good, of course, but there don't really tell you anything i.e Huboo might have opened a new hub but tons of others might have shut so it doesn't tell us the big picture.

However, my favourite is the soon-to-be-off-completely-ratted Indians ! Love the idea they're going to be sloshed on Scotch (Not sure it's for the greater world good but, hey, we all need some relaxation - hopefully a few bottles will slip off the crate and go to the poorer Indians too - spread the cheer )

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I know there is a distinction between Brexit itself, and how Brexit is being implemented ....

But I doubt the scientists concerned really care....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/21/cambridge-university-astrophysicist-loses-esa-project-role-over-brexit-row-nicholas-walton



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Daily Mail now complaining that foreign workers aren't 'turning up' to pick the fruit and veg.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10836933/Britain-faces-summer-shortages-supermarket-shelves-lack-season-crop-pickers.html



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I see as Union Flags start to appear there are some who link the image to Nazi Germany. Why do so many hate our own country so much? I am not pretending it is perfect but some have genuine contempt for everything British (whilst still continuing to live here!)

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Shhh wrote:

I see as Union Flags start to appear there are some who link the image to Nazi Germany. Why do so many hate our own country so much? I am not pretending it is perfect but some have genuine contempt for everything British (whilst still continuing to live here!)


Many of the French are the same about the French flag

Even in the countryside, there is a strong anti feeling to any house that puts up a French flag, even on July 14th (and this is from people who are very proud to be French)

It's simply viewed as a fascist, nationalistic thing

So I don't think it's just GB or necessarily an anti-GB thing



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Coup Droit wrote:
Shhh wrote:

I see as Union Flags start to appear there are some who link the image to Nazi Germany. Why do so many hate our own country so much? I am not pretending it is perfect but some have genuine contempt for everything British (whilst still continuing to live here!)


Many of the French are the same about the French flag

Even in the countryside, there is a strong anti feeling to any house that puts up a French flag, even on July 14th (and this is from people who are very proud to be French)

It's simply viewed as a fascist, nationalistic thing

So I don't think it's just GB or necessarily an anti-GB thing


†and, being honest, it is the way I tend to react. If my neighbours put up a British or English flag, I would recoil. But I love Britain and England.†

Strangely, I wouldn't recoil if I saw that in Scotland, it would make me feel "good for them". Not sure what causes my reaction, but I associate one flag at a house with a xenophobic, slightly aggressive undertone. BUT lots of flags in a general town centre display, that is great and I have no recoil at that.†

Strange and hard to explain, we are react differently... British flags actually less so than English; English flags I just associate with the EDL and their like and recoil immediately, sadly



-- Edited by JonH comes home on Monday 23rd of May 2022 11:19:28 AM

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Thats interesting Jon, and I find very sad. I understand that the flag can be seen as hijacked by far right groups but my small town has been busy putting up flags left, right and centre and I think it looks a great sight. For all its faults (and there are many) I love our Country and I love to see it celebrated.

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Shhh wrote:

Thats interesting Jon, and I find very sad. I understand that the flag can be seen as hijacked by far right groups but my small town has been busy putting up flags left, right and centre and I think it looks a great sight. For all its faults (and there are many) I love our Country and I love to see it celebrated.


†And I love our country, and can't think of anywhere I would rather live or be (apart from a couple of weeks in the sun now and then!).†

But it is the way it makes me react and it is very sad, I agree†



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