Brexit

SuperT · Futures qualifying

RE: Brexit

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Me too, SuperT

"I am not a great proponent of voting for politicians, as it only encourages them."

Classic - real LOL - rather Lewis Carrol in fact - just brilliant, christ - made my day

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

I see the M20 has been turned into a parking lot again. Huge tailbacks and delays running into days rather than hours.

Now, this is not ALL Brexit related. I get that. It is the Easter busy period and several of the ferries are out of action due to the P&O situation. All of which has exacerbated the situation. But one of the causes is that the Customs Software has crashed. It has been down since the end of March and is unlikely to be back up until next Monday.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/07/customs-it-meltdown-adds-to-long-delays-at-port-of-dover

I also accept it could be argued that it is not Brexit itself (as a principle) that is the problem, but rather the government's incompetent implementation. Either way, it is a problem.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

And, in similar vein, Brexit, government policies in how to implement Brexit, and exacerbated by covid:

committees.parliament.uk/publications/9580/documents/162177/default/

Environment Select Committee (a cross-party committee - no political affiliation) have just issued their report into acute labour shortages in agriculture, due to Brexit and Covid. 500,000 vacancies causing

-crops to go unharvested, left to rot in fields.
-healthy pigs culled.
-disruption to food supply.

They found that there is "no doubt that labour shortages, caused by Brexit and accentuated by the pandemic, have badly affected businesses across the food and farming sector"

"Summary

The food and farming sector has been suffering from acute labour shortages due principally to Brexit and the covid-19 pandemic. In August 2021, the number of vacancies was estimated to be 500,000 out of 4.1 million roles in the sector. We found clear evidence that labour shortages have badly affected the food and farming industry - threatening food security, the welfare of animals and the mental health of those working in the sector. Businesses have been badly hit, with the pig sector being particularly
affected....

We found that labour shortages across the sector were causing crops to go unharvested and left to rot in fields, healthy pigs to be culled, and disruption to the food supply chains just-in-time delivery model"

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Being reported in The Times today that since Freedom of Movement with the EU was replaced by a points based system, UK immigration has gone UP by 25% when compared with 2019 - i.e. pre-pandemic.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-rise-in-non-eu-migrants-to-britain-037qpx3x0

Behind a firewall unfortunately but the stats are in the 1st two paragraphs which can be seen anyway.

steven · Tennis legend

Macron today, encouraging those, e.g. Mélenchon voters, who can't be bothered to vote to get to the polls (approximate translation): "Imagine if you were British in 2016 and thought you wouldn't bother voting because the repugnant outcome was inconceivable and then you woke up the next day to find out that you had let it happen."

An even more apt 2016 comparison under the circumstances (given that Mélenchon is pretty much the French Bernie Sanders) would have been not voting for Hillary because "I don't like her and Trump won't win anyway", but still.

Does this count as something Brexit is good for?

Edit: I just saw a bit more of the interview - it turns out that he did use the US 2016 election as another warning from the past as well.

-- Edited by steven on Monday 18th of April 2022 11:43:21 PM

Shhh · Challenger level

steven wrote:
Macron today, encouraging those, e.g. Mélenchon voters, who can't be bothered to vote to get to the polls (approximate translation): "Imagine if you were British in 2016 and thought you wouldn't bother voting because the repugnant outcome was inconceivable and then you woke up the next day to find out that you had let it happen."

An even more apt 2016 comparison under the circumstances (given that Mélenchon is pretty much the French Bernie Sanders) would have been not voting for Hillary because "I don't like her and Trump won't win anyway", but still.

Does this count as something Brexit is good for?
Edit: I just saw a bit more of the interview - it turns out that he did use the US 2016 election as another warning from the past as well.

-- Edited by steven on Monday 18th of April 2022 11:43:21 PM

No matter how strong we feel on the subject I like to think we have tried to continue a debate on here without resorting to sarcasm or being facetious Steven....respecting other peoples views etc.

Above Coup quoted reports of how much the labour shortage caused by Brexit is affecting us and yet it is followed by Bob quoting how much immigration has gone up since Brexit. I didn't jump on the apparent contradiction as this isn't "Twitter", we are all friends here. Can you not adopt the same attitude?

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Just on the immigration numbers, Shhh, Bob's summary is rather misleading, I think.

The Times points out that work-related visas have gone up 25% since 2019

BUT in 2019 the UK didn't give work-related visas to EU citizens - they didn't need them

So the large number of EU workers arriving in 2019 aren't counted in that number

So it's saying the number of non-EU work visas has gone up 25% or, more precisely,

2019: non-EU work visas (EU people not counted) = A

2022: All work visas = B

And B is 25% higher than A

But it's not comparing like with like and misses a very large number

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

On a separate point, and I note your criticisim of steven's post, Shhh, I do think that the 2016 referendum has been very useful for scholarly and policy-driven research into referendums as a political tool in general.

One of my major gripes with Cameron is that he refused to pay any attention to academic research, and the corresponding practical examples in South Africa, Cyprus, Colombia and many other countries, both successful and unsuccessful, as to how questions should be phrased, the importance of using it as a deliberative tool, the mandate design of a referendum ....

It was downright stupid of him, in my opinion, and unnecessary. With a better design, the vote could have been broadly the same but we would have (largely) avoided the last 7 years of bitterness and in-fighting.

And, in that way, yes, the GB referendum will be added to the annals and is a useful learning experience (for everyone else going forward).

emmsie69 · ATP level

I think it's incredibly naive to think that phrasing the question differently would change people's attitude. Life is becoming more polarised thanks to SM and particularly Twitter. Look at the reaction to JKR and her GC views. There is no space for nuance. Christ's post in the general election thread is exactly how I feel about Politics. I'm also sick and tired of the negativity, politicians should stop banging on about how awful the alternative is and start focussing on why people should vote for them

steven · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
steven wrote:
Macron today, encouraging those, e.g. Mélenchon voters, who can't be bothered to vote to get to the polls (approximate translation): "Imagine if you were British in 2016 and thought you wouldn't bother voting because the repugnant outcome was inconceivable and then you woke up the next day to find out that you had let it happen."

An even more apt 2016 comparison under the circumstances (given that Mélenchon is pretty much the French Bernie Sanders) would have been not voting for Hillary because "I don't like her and Trump won't win anyway", but still.

Does this count as something Brexit is good for?
Edit: I just saw a bit more of the interview - it turns out that he did use the US 2016 election as another warning from the past as well.

-- Edited by steven on Monday 18th of April 2022 11:43:21 PM
No matter how strong we feel on the subject I like to think we have tried to continue a debate on here without resorting to sarcasm or being facetious Steven....respecting other peoples views etc.

Above Coup quoted reports of how much the labour shortage caused by Brexit is affecting us and yet it is followed by Bob quoting how much immigration has gone up since Brexit. I didn't jump on the apparent contradiction as this isn't "Twitter", we are all friends here. Can you not adopt the same attitude?

I do respect the views of other people on here and I don't quite see what you're objecting to in my post. I was reporting Macron's comments, and even they weren't aimed at Brexit voters, they were aimed at those who really didn't want Brexit/Trump to win but didn't vote because they didn't think the EU/Hillary were perfect either and thought the outcome was a foregone conclusion so they didn't need to vote and, by extension, at those who really don't don't want an extremist to triumph in France but don't much like Macron and think they can safely stay at home because he has got the election in the bag.

Indeed, there are quite a few instances in history where the pursuit of some mythical ideological perfection, e.g. by those on the left, has resulted in the rise of the far right and Macron went on to make a very good case about that and the philosophy behind the French two-round system, though him doing so probably won't have endeared him to the Mélenchon voters he was trying to convince.

So did you object to the "Does this count as something Brexit is good for?" If it makes other European countries think twice (there's some evidence from the polls that it has but given that far right politicians are still making inroads in some countries, the jury is still out on that), then that is a benefit, even if not for us. As far as it was sarcastic, that was aimed not at people here but at certain politicians who are desperately scratching around for some benefits to tout (e.g. Truss: all those new trade deals - never mind that they don't come anywhere close to making up for what we've lost; Patel: oh look, we can deport asylum seekers to Rwanda now; Boris/JRM/etc: touting things as benefits of Brexit when they're either not benefits or we would already have been able to do them from within the EU; etc) yet haven't come up with any genuine benefits yet (unless I've missed something), let alone enough to make up for all the disadvantages.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

emmsie69 wrote:
I think it's incredibly naive to think that phrasing the question differently would change people's attitude. Life is becoming more polarised thanks to SM and particularly Twitter. Look at the reaction to JKR and her GC views. There is no space for nuance. Christ's post in the general election thread is exactly how I feel about Politics. I'm also sick and tired of the negativity, politicians should stop banging on about how awful the alternative is and start focussing on why people should vote for them

So you are dismissing decades of research of universities and government policy bureaux?

I'm sorry, emmsie, but I don't think you're in a very good position to do so

It's not a question of phrasing the question differently.

And the success and failures in all the countries that have used peace referendums, for instance, and the different approach that was taken is good data

I'm not saying everyone has to agree with the research or interpret the countries' experiences in the same ways - that's the whole point - but to dismiss it out of hand as 'incredibly naive' without (I believe) having read it, is - IMO - part of the whole problem.

steven · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Just on the immigration numbers, Shhh, Bob's summary is rather misleading, I think.

The Times points out that work-related visas have gone up 25% since 2019

BUT in 2019 the UK didn't give work-related visas to EU citizens - they didn't need them

So the large number of EU workers arriving in 2019 aren't counted in that number

So it's saying the number of non-EU work visas has gone up 25% or, more precisely,

2019: non-EU work visas (EU people not counted) = A

2022: All work visas = B

And B is 25% higher than A

But it's not comparing like with like and misses a very large number

This is true, though I don't think Bob was claiming that it was a like-for-like comparison. Of course, it's a good thing if the visa process has become less restrictive for talented people from outside the EU, though Brexit wasn't a necessary condition for this to happen, Brexit has just forced the government to do this at last to make up for the talent drain back to the EU. I've always thought Brexit wouldn't make much difference to immigration overall apart from changing the mix of countries immigrants come from. Was that worth giving up all the rights Brits had in the EU for? (I don't think so, though I can respect the fact that others might have different views on that)

emmsie69 · ATP level

Links to the decades of research into the impact of Twitter and SM in general on the polarisation of the electorate please.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Just on the immigration numbers, Shhh, Bob's summary is rather misleading, I think.

The Times points out that work-related visas have gone up 25% since 2019

BUT in 2019 the UK didn't give work-related visas to EU citizens - they didn't need them

So the large number of EU workers arriving in 2019 aren't counted in that number

So it's saying the number of non-EU work visas has gone up 25% or, more precisely,

2019: non-EU work visas (EU people not counted) = A

2022: All work visas = B

And B is 25% higher than A

But it's not comparing like with like and misses a very large number

This is true, though I don't think Bob was claiming that it was a like-for-like comparison. Of course, it's a good thing if the visa process has become less restrictive for talented people from outside the EU, though Brexit wasn't a necessary condition for this to happen, Brexit has just forced the government to do this at last to make up for the talent drain back to the EU. I've always thought Brexit wouldn't make much difference to immigration overall apart from changing the mix of countries immigrants come from. Was that worth giving up all the rights Brits had in the EU for? (I don't think so, though I can respect the fact that others might have different views on that)

Yes, sorry, I didn't mean Bob's own summary, I meant The Times (although they sort of overlapped)

But, as you say, they're not like-for-like and that is misleading (hence Shhh's reasonable point that it appears inconsistent with other statements before. But, in fact, it isn't)