Week 20 - ITF ($60K) - Kurume, Japan - Hard

Babfive · Satellite level

Week 20 - ITF ($60K) - Kurume, Japan - Hard

RedSquirrel · Satellite level

That's a shame about Katie. It now means only 1 Brit can progress past the QF with all the others being in the same quarter of the draw. Katy and Tara play each other in the next round to decide who (hopefully) faces Naomi in the QF.

Michael D · All-time great

Yes pity about Katie B. I was surprised to see her start this week if she is due to play Roland Garros qualifiers next week. Now I wonder if that participation is in doubt. Hope her withdrawal today is just precautionary, but she now has barely a week... cry

The wonderful news is Tara though, since with her win she finally takes out that GB#10 position and moves up to 419 in the live rankings. Quite possibly only temporarily however, as Maia also goes past Sam Murray in the live rankings with her 9 pts from last week going on. Maia is up to 430, and with her 'win' today will gain another net 4 week after and be up to 86 pts against Tara's 87 pts. smile smile

Laura however is falling towards them, down 88 places this week to live rank 330. cry So we still need more upward movement from at least two people...

Live Ranks

GB #9 Laura Robson 330 (down 88) 136 pts

GB#10 Tara Moore 419 (up 15 places) 87 pts

GB#11 Maia Lumsden 430 (up 31) 82 pts (week after 86 pts, contingent on further results this week)

GB#12 Sam Murray 437 (down 6) 80 pts

the addict · Tennis legend

R16: Katy Dunne/ Abigail Tere-Apisah (GBR/PNG) 444 (181+263) def Michika Ozeki/ Yukina Saigo (JPN/JPN) 742 6-1 4-6 10-6

QF: Katy Dunne/ Abigail Tere-Apisah (GBR/PNG) 444 (181+263) v Fujiwara, Rika/ Lykina, Ksenia (JPN/RUS) 2 312 (142+170)

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I've been a Laura fan since she came on the scene, but I must admit I've just about given up on her. I hoped that she would be inspired by the up and coming group who are nearer her age, but they are now overtaking her. I feel that this year's grass season will be her final chance at giving it a real go.

Peter too · Tennis legend

R1: BROADY, Naomi (GBR) 1 126 def HANATANI, Nagi (JPN) 506 6-4 6-2
R1: MOORE, Tara (GBR) 434 def KAJITANI, Robu (JPN) WC UNR 6-4 6-1
R1: DUNNE, Katy (GBR) 5 219 def KUWATA, Hiroko (JPN) 337 6-3 1-6 6-1
R1: BOULTER, Katie (GBR) 3 152 lost to PATERSON, Tammi (AUS) 342 6-3 4-6 Ret.

R2: BROADY, Naomi (GBR) 1 126 v OSHINO, Suzuho (JPN) WC 992 CH=938 3/4/17
R2: MOORE, Tara (GBR) 434 v DUNNE, Katy (GBR) 5 219
H2H 1-0 Glasgow 2014 Moore 6-2 4-6 6-3

SuperT · Futures level

I don't really understand why Katie B was playing here this week. After her brilliant win last week I assumed she would withdraw and come home to prepare on clay for RG. I'm not sure how these wasted 3 days in Japan will help with that. Surely she should be getting better advice about her program?

Strongbow · All-time great

Hopefully the retirement is precautionary. KB has 48 points coming off this week and a further 36 by the end of Wimbledon. Assuming she is fit, she won't play anything weaker than a strong 100k in that time where she'd do well to win a R1 match. "Easy" points in a weak 60k must have been very alluring.

Priesty · Challenger level

Helen40 wrote:
I've been a Laura fan since she came on the scene, but I must admit I've just about given up on her. I hoped that she would be inspired by the up and coming group who are nearer her age, but they are now overtaking her. I feel that this year's grass season will be her final chance at giving it a real go.

I posted in last week's Fukuoka thread that Laura seems to me to be happy enough with where she is in life at the moment and wonder if this is partly why she hasn't moved on. I also wonder if she has perhaps enjoyed being among a larger group of her fellow Brits than would be the case were she still competing at WTA level and possibly even playing an unofficial mentor/senior figure role. But as you say she's falling behind now.

Just speculation, all of this....

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Great win for Katy and that's now a huge match now against Tara which could go a long way in determining QWC and MDWC Wimbledon picks. Tara was a heavy favourite vs her WC opponent but a second successive L16 place in a 60k event for someone ranked in the 400s is good going. She's had some notable wins this past week and another here and she should get a QWC imo.

For Katy, another QF will do her main draw hopes no harm, but as she may well be the most vulnerable of the 6 in contention, a bad loss to Tara won't look great.

Interestingly, Tara is actually the bookies favourite here despite being 200 places behind Katy in the rankings. Naomi is like 1/20 to win her 2nd round match and if she does, we're guaranteed a semi finalist. I hope the Tara / Katy winner makes the semi finals personally, unless there's an unlikely chance that the title would see Naomi qualify automatically for Wimbledon.

Michael D · All-time great

Ace Ventura wrote:
Great win for Katy and that's now a huge match now against Tara which could go a long way in determining QWC and MDWC Wimbledon picks. Tara was a heavy favourite vs her WC opponent but a second successive L16 place in a 60k event for someone ranked in the 400s is good going. She's had some notable wins this past week and another here and she should get a QWC imo.

For Katy, another QF will do her main draw hopes no harm, but as she may well be the most vulnerable of the 6 in contention, a bad loss to Tara won't look great.

Interestingly, Tara is actually the bookies favourite here despite being 200 places behind Katy in the rankings. Naomi is like 1/20 to win her 2nd round match and if she does, we're guaranteed a semi finalist. I hope the Tara / Katy winner makes the semi finals personally, unless there's an unlikely chance that the title would see Naomi qualify automatically for Wimbledon.

Win here would get Naomi 80 pts, but net only 65. And she needs about another 130 to reach WR105. Yes, she might get into Wimbledon MD lower ranked than this, but this would be safe. So she would in fact need two more such tournament wins, not just one.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Michael D wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
Great win for Katy and that's now a huge match now against Tara which could go a long way in determining QWC and MDWC Wimbledon picks. Tara was a heavy favourite vs her WC opponent but a second successive L16 place in a 60k event for someone ranked in the 400s is good going. She's had some notable wins this past week and another here and she should get a QWC imo.

For Katy, another QF will do her main draw hopes no harm, but as she may well be the most vulnerable of the 6 in contention, a bad loss to Tara won't look great.

Interestingly, Tara is actually the bookies favourite here despite being 200 places behind Katy in the rankings. Naomi is like 1/20 to win her 2nd round match and if she does, we're guaranteed a semi finalist. I hope the Tara / Katy winner makes the semi finals personally, unless there's an unlikely chance that the title would see Naomi qualify automatically for Wimbledon.
Win here would get Naomi 80 pts, but net only 65. And she needs about another 130 to reach WR105. Yes, she might get into Wimbledon MD lower ranked than this, but this would be safe. So she would in fact need two more such tournament wins, not just one.

I believe the Wimbledon main draw cut off is Monday, so if that's the case, in this instance, I think a QF final win for either Tara or Katy would be more beneficial, so I'd be rooting for them I think.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, Wimbledon MD rankings cut-off is next Monday, 21/05.

Agree a good run here could really help Katy. Looking at points now guaranteed by 18/06, the rankings that the WCs will probably be picked after, it is now looking very close with her, Harriet and Katie S. And yes I think Katy D may be the most vulnerable of that 3 and perhaps Katie S the least so on say age. Though clearly that's very speculative.

Latest guaranteed 18/06 points ( current live 21/05 points less future net points due to come off ) :

Katie B : 352 - 12 = 340
Gabi : 301 - 28 = 273

Harriet : 274 - 52 = 222
Katy D : 252 - 32 = 220
Katie S : 221 - 3 = 218

220 points is currently equivalent to WR 240. Hopefully the girls will be replacing many if not all these points due to come off with their early grass season results.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

But the AELTC don't have to use the rankings of the official cut-off date, do they? I mean, they choose their wildcards a lot later and usually seem to use those later rankings. Which makes some sense as there are grass court points included.
But, net net, I agree that my guess would be that Katy Dunne won't get a MD wildcard (unless she has a very good run in the next couple of weeks). And Katies B, S, and Gabi will. And Harriet is the unknown and might....

indiana · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
But the AELTC don't have to use the rankings of the official cut-off date, do they? I mean, they choose their wildcards a lot later and usually seem to use those later rankings. Which makes some sense as there are grass court points included.
But, net net, I agree that my guess would be that Katy Dunne won't get a MD wildcard (unless she has a very good run in the next couple of weeks). And Katies B, S, and Gabi will. And Harriet is the unknown and might....

Sorry, the reference to the MD rankings cut-off date, 21/05, was purely regarding Naomi's ( non ) chances of getting into the MD on ranking.

I am then looking at prospective points at a later date for the WCs, ie 18/06, 2 weeks before the start of the Championships, at the start of the week of the qualifying WC play-offs, and including the initial grass court events. 18/06 should be the relevant date as the last ranking info the LTA / AELTC will have before WCs are announced. So we agree on that