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Post Info TOPIC: Week 5 - ITF ($25K) - Glasgow, Great Britain, Hard Indoor


All-time great

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RE: Week 5 - ITF ($25K) - Glasgow, Great Britain, Hard Indoor


blob wrote:

Very well done again Ms. Lumsden
Looking at the pictures Scottish Tennis have posted, Maia really seems to have done some hard extra conditioning work over the winter.

Another come-from-behind win. Maia now has two on her own, and so too do each of Tara and Johanna.

Through the end of this week (week 5) in 2017, we had just two wins after our player lost the first set (which was 2-97 2.02% of such matches by that date in 2017)
In 2018, we already have 11 total wins coming from behind. (11-32 25.58%)

In 2017, it took us until week 8 to reach 11 such wins - that acceleration was due mostly to a lot of GB events in that period wins in QR1 of those.

On the filpside, our opposition continue to outpace us in this regard. They win 26.32% of matches where the GB player wins the first set in 2018 matches: GB are 28-10 in such instances.
This is considerably worse than at the same point in 2017, where the figures were GB 86-10 (Opponents won 10.42% of matches where GB won the first set)


Your last line here has an error blob... the figure can't be 86-10 to the same point in 2017, especially if it took us to week 8 to reach 11 come from behind wins.

And really regretting not putting Maia in my top 10 this year, thought hard about it! wink Lovely to see her performance so far this week though and hope she can keep going one more match.  



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Strong Club Player

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E: Week 5 - ITF ($25K) - Glasgow, Great Britain, Hard Indoor


unfortunately Maia doesn't play often enough to sustain a decent ranking - if only Glasgow held a tourney every week like Sharm or Antalya



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KK


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RE: Week 5 - ITF ($25K) - Glasgow, Great Britain, Hard Indoor


Is she at university or playing on the tour full time now?



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Michael D wrote:
blob wrote:

Very well done again Ms. Lumsden
Looking at the pictures Scottish Tennis have posted, Maia really seems to have done some hard extra conditioning work over the winter.

Another come-from-behind win. Maia now has two on her own, and so too do each of Tara and Johanna.

Through the end of this week (week 5) in 2017, we had just two wins after our player lost the first set (which was 2-97 2.02% of such matches by that date in 2017)
In 2018, we already have 11 total wins coming from behind. (11-32 25.58%)

In 2017, it took us until week 8 to reach 11 such wins - that acceleration was due mostly to a lot of GB events in that period wins in QR1 of those.

On the filpside, our opposition continue to outpace us in this regard. They win 26.32% of matches where the GB player wins the first set in 2018 matches: GB are 28-10 in such instances.
This is considerably worse than at the same point in 2017, where the figures were GB 86-10 (Opponents won 10.42% of matches where GB won the first set)


Your last line here has an error blob... the figure can't be 86-10 to the same point in 2017, especially if it took us to week 8 to reach 11 come from behind wins.

And really regretting not putting Maia in my top 10 this year, thought hard about it! wink Lovely to see her performance so far this week though and hope she can keep going one more match.  


Two different things: Matches where we won the first set, matches where we lost the first set. These are not subsets of each other, and there is no intersection between them.

In 2017, by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 86-10 - Opponents made the comeback rate was 10.42%
When GB lost first set: 2-97 - GB comeback rate was 2.02%

In 2018 by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 28-10 - Opponents comeback rate is 26.32%
When GB lost first set: 11-32 - GB comeback rate is 25.58%

I have no explanation as to why all players are throwing away leads/making comebacks at such a drastically higher rate this year compared to last, but that is what the data shows.

The number 86 is so much higher than the equivalent 2017 number, 28, in part due to the Glasgow event last year being a $15K in 2017, which meant a large qualifying full of GB players, and more in the MD, meaning lots and lots of matches. We played 31 matches in Glasgow in 2017, we will only play 17 in 2018. The other factor is that there are just a lot more straight sets matches involving GB players this year compared to last year. We've played fewer matches too.



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To my surprise, Maia actually has 24 counting tournaments played in the last 12 months; which should be enough. She's also involved in Stirling Uni events, has played British Tour and other matches at Wimbledon WC playoffs, so she is playing a lot.

She does seem to travel badly, with her results within the UK (and with a Northern bias) much better than her performances further afield.

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Brilliant week for Maia. So pleased for her. The one thing that sticks out when she plays is that she seems to really enjoy her tennis. Her previous Dutch coaches were really good too, in that regard, so calm and positive.
Brilliant for tennis Scotland, also, to have a representative in the final and to inspire the kids.

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blob wrote:
Michael D wrote:

Two different things: Matches where we won the first set, matches where we lost the first set. These are not subsets of each other, and there is no intersection between them.

In 2017, by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 86-10 - Opponents made the comeback rate was 10.42%
When GB lost first set: 2-97 - GB comeback rate was 2.02%

In 2018 by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 28-10 - Opponents comeback rate is 26.32%
When GB lost first set: 11-32 - GB comeback rate is 25.58%

I have no explanation as to why all players are throwing away leads/making comebacks at such a drastically higher rate this year compared to last, but that is what the data shows.

The number 86 is so much higher than the equivalent 2017 number, 28, in part due to the Glasgow event last year being a $15K in 2017, which meant a large qualifying full of GB players, and more in the MD, meaning lots and lots of matches. We played 31 matches in Glasgow in 2017, we will only play 17 in 2018. The other factor is that there are just a lot more straight sets matches involving GB players this year compared to last year. We've played fewer matches too.


Ok I get it now, thanks for the full explanation! And yes, I was also puzzled as to why our women had played so many more matches in the first 5 weeks of 2018 too. It shows what a difference shifting from a 15k to 25k makes. Only person who won't mind is Maia. Let's hope she gets a WC into Loughborough next week too after the bureaucratic mishap with her next week entries.  



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KK wrote:

Is she at university or playing on the tour full time now?


pretty much full time now 



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paulisi wrote:
KK wrote:

Is she at university or playing on the tour full time now?


pretty much full time now 


 I'm pretty sure she's still at Uni...

https://twitter.com/maialumsden?lang=en

...and might remain so for another 2 1/2 years (in Scotland, courses always used to be 4 years). There's a fair bit on her twitter feed about Uni tennis - helping Stirling beat Bath 12-0 in some UK competition final, beating USA in an international competition final that the USA  ALWAYS wins. So there's a lot of very successful tennis which doesn't show up on her ITF playing record.



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She's clearly been skiving a heck of a lot in the last 12 months then ! 

Though I would imagine Stirling Uni would be pretty flexible in allowing sports people to have time out, put back part of courses and change or extend courses.

And any ongoing successes could of course radically change her plans.



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Grand Slam Champion

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Peter too wrote:

SF: LUMSDEN, Maia (GBR) WC 524 def PAQUET, Chloe (FRA) 259 3-6 6-3 6-4

F: LUMSDEN, Maia (GBR) WC 524 v BADOSA GIBERT, Paula (ESP) 248 CH=193 28/9/15


Great stuff; well done Maia biggrin

GL in the final



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Two different things: Matches where we won the first set, matches where we lost the first set. These are not subsets of each other, and there is no intersection between them.
Blob Wrote

In 2017, by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 86-10 - Opponents made the comeback rate was 10.42%
When GB lost first set: 2-97 - GB comeback rate was 2.02%

In 2018 by end of week 5:
When GB won first set: 28-10 - Opponents comeback rate is 26.32%
When GB lost first set: 11-32 - GB comeback rate is 25.58%

I have no explanation as to why all players are throwing away leads/making comebacks at such a drastically higher rate this year compared to last, but that is what the data shows.

The number 86 is so much higher than the equivalent 2017 number, 28, in part due to the Glasgow event last year being a $15K in 2017, which meant a large qualifying full of GB players, and more in the MD, meaning lots and lots of matches. We played 31 matches in Glasgow in 2017, we will only play 17 in 2018. The other factor is that there are just a lot more straight sets matches involving GB players this year compared to last year. We've played fewer matches too.

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I know the larger data sets are heterogenous ie mixing in 15K 25K etc all of which have different dynamics that impact the nationality of those likely to enter (particularly qualifying) and the level at which they play which impacts the probability of mismatches and straight sets wins. The total number of three set games would imply closer match ups (which is also counfounded by age and rate of progression ... the capacity to play (college players)...... a concept we often refer to as under ranked). Split up the data sets and the numbers are too small to interpret useful over such a short time period even big differences are prone to type I errors. Linking it to nationality would be even more challenging statistically.

There must be a constant relationships between difference in ranking and the likelihood of a 2 or 3 set match, indeed I am sure the analysts at Betfair could quote it, similarly there must be a relationship between junior rank when players are good enough to transition , age and the same outcomes which is a better predictor of outcome than senior rank. You could apply the same principle to players in college and playing in the No 1 slot using age again and college rank.

What would be really interesting would be a comparison between 2015, 2016 and 2017 of the progression of players from different countries but splitting the players into three groups .. players representing countries in which meldonium is a prescription drug, players originating from countries where meldonium is a prescription drug and players from countries where it has never been legally obtainable.


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Not really. Will reply later in my silly charts thread to avoid cluttering up here as Maia goes for her win.
Quick preview: For 2017 matches there is a correlation between matches that include an UNR player and the number of sets, but not a terribly significant one in terms of the differential generally (<20% confidence)

Edit: to clarify - this is for matches involving GBR players in 2017 only, that is the only data I have.



-- Edited by blob on Sunday 4th of February 2018 11:58:14 AM

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Anyone know what's happening here? Live scores seem to have frozen in the middle of the mens final.



-- Edited by SuperT on Sunday 4th of February 2018 02:26:48 PM

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Same here, but I know a man who knows ..........

Steven @GBtennis

Steven Retweeted Tennis Scotland

Glasgow 25K Final: Another 3rd set for Maia but this time, it's her opponent who has come from behind ...

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