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Post Info TOPIC: Weeks 3 & 4 - Australian Open, Melbourne (hard)


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Weeks 3 & 4 - Australian Open, Melbourne (hard)


Lol, can't be arsed either just now, but will certainly give Oakland's latest post consideration, I will return with a further reply.

Re early in Oakland's latest though I have no interest at all in spinning data re Kyle or any other Brit and welcome all open and honest discussions re British performances in matches and / or over periods and find such discussion often interesting and occasionally illuminating. So if you disagree my data or interpretation, indeed feel free to let me know. Apologies to Oakland if you thought I was being unfair re my suggestion of you spinning, essentially to do with your replacing challengers point looking wrong to me and rather that it was a pretty similar tournament spread from 2016 to 2017. Within that there may be significant differences which I will consider,



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As I think Oakland is making a very pertinent point, I'll try and be arsed
So, here is an attempt to display the contrast that Oakland is describing - clear improvement, evidenced in the tightening of the groupings in 2017.
To prevent the axes from becoming confusingly stretched, I have removed 2 outlier wins: one in 2016 against WR1964; one in 2017 against WR869

oZfa4IV.png



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blob wrote:

As I think Oakland is making a very pertinent point, I'll try and be arsed
So, here is an attempt to display the contrast that Oakland is describing - clear improvement, evidenced in the tightening of the groupings in 2017.
To prevent the axes from becoming confusingly stretched, I have removed 2 outlier wins: one in 2016 against WR1964; one in 2017 against WR869

oZfa4IV.png


I've now officially lost the will to live! 



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Anyway re tonight, Kyle vs Seppi will be 4th on Hisense so goodness knows when but men's doubles is best of 3 here and with final set TBs so can't go too long.

Proceedings will be started with a legends doubles involving the McEnroes, Bahrami and Santoro. Presumably they won't hang around too long. Then two men's doubles L16 matches and then Kyle.

See some more info above to keep me amused after the fitba and in the early hours. Thanks, blob 


Now, well whenever, go Kyle !!



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Stircrazy wrote:
blob wrote:
[...]

I've now officially lost the will to live! 


That will certainly teach me to make my once yearly post in the mens section biggrin

Message received I'll stick to messing up the womens section.

Keep up the good work Kyle; I'm always watching, if not commenting.



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blob wrote:
Stircrazy wrote:
blob wrote:
[...]

I've now officially lost the will to live! 


That will certainly teach me to make my once yearly post in the mens section biggrin

Message received I'll stick to messing up the womens section.

Keep up the good work Kyle; I'm always watching, if not commenting.


It wasn't intended as a criticism, merely as a reflection of my inability, as a self-confessed non-stats "anorak", to comprehend even the simplest representation of, not sure how to describe it, statistical improvements/deteriorations (???), so still .

P.S.  In mitigation, if it helps, I'm a modern languages graduate with sod all scientific background... 



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Lies, damned lies, and statistics.



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OK here goes again re the Kyle schedule / rankings / improvement discussion, now that I have read through Oakland and blob's posts. I suspected when I replied I was going to need to say look away now, SC, and maybe others. But there won't really be much in the way of figures here and no graphs. For in truth re Kyle we are not really far apart in what is being said, rather more apart on some interpretations during the comings and goings ( though I still end up waffling on more than I anticipated ).

So to address a couple of points :

1) Schedule 2016 vs 2017 - Oakland first said Kyle last year was defending the points he won on the challenger tour. I looked at his end of year counters in 2016 and 2017 and was making the point not really since he only had 3 counters that were challengers and the rest were ATP 250s or above.
2016 : 4 Slams, 5 ATP 1000s, 2 ATP 500s, 4 ATP 250s, and 3 Challengers.
2017 : 4 Slams, 8 ATP 1000s, 1 ATP 500, 5 ATP 250s and no Challengers.
I said based on that a similar range of tournaments, which it is on the face of it. What I absolutely accept going over Oakland's detail is it was certainly not such a similar level of competition with say many of his ATPs in 2016 at least starting off in qualifying and thus challenger level competition. So yes he was generally factually as I said not really defending challenger points but he was defending and moving on from previous more challenger like competition if actually in ATPs so yes his level of competition significantly up in 2017 and Oakland and blob both illustrate this well.

Stalling in 2017 - I said "after his previous year on year progression up the rankings, last year was a stall essentially because he didn't progress better in a similar range of tournaments, if on average a slight step up. As he said himself he lost too many close matches."

Here I was essentially talking about stalling in the rankings ( which factually Kyle did, in fact went back slightly ) However, as per 1) I do accept that it was not such similar competition to 2016 as I thought and thus said. And while Oakland has previously quite often pointed to Kyle's year on year rise up the rankings I think his point above that "at this rarified level ranking is a relatively poorer statistical surrogate marker over development than at futures or challenger level" seems very reasonable.

So was the rankings stall at all an issue and did Kyle generally improve last year ?

As I say my stalling comment was essentially re ranking, I have in other discussions quite often agreed with comments re improvements and I have certainly acknowledged his close matches with very good players if been concerned in the past that he lost so many. I would stick to actually winning and ranking as still kinda important, winning is ultimately what you're there to do, but as I say points certainly taken re higher level of competition and even previously I never said that he was not improving in his game, that his development had stalled, and that there is not a bigger picture. I have mentioned the annoying losing close matches habit ( clearly rather moreso annoying to Kyle too who was frustrated by it and naturally sought to change it, it was an issue ) and his body language and the maybe link ( once or thrice or maybe more! ) because I genuinely thought these areas of concern. Game improvements are one thing, ultimately results must follow. And early in 2018 they are! It is super that his body language has got significantly better and of course great to have had the good close wins in Brisbane and now here including a CH win against Kevin Anderson.

Thank you blob for all your data. As I say I never disputed improvement and with more understanding now of how much his level of opposition had really improved in spite of quite similar looking counting tournaments, your data is even less surprising to me, but again thanks for showing this graphically.

Divided at times by a common language and maybe misinterpretations of where people are coming from. But through discussion can come more understanding and clarity.

Now let's all just hope that Kyle can play well tonight and get into that QF, which by the way I wouldn't consider a "shot to nothing" but let's not go further down that new road for now, well at least not until hopefully it becomes relevant and I can explain what I mean.

Go Kyle !!!



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Wake up people !

Kyle should be arriving on court about 5 am GMT ( now scheduled as not before then with the previous doubles match having concluded unexpectedly sharpish with victory for Groth & Hewitt over Andujar & Ramos-Vinolas 3-3 retired, Groth & Hewitt into the QF ).



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OK, now not before 5.15 am. They are not to be rushed !

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In other news, Cilic is first into the QF after beating Carreno Busta in 4 sets. He will play Nadal or Schwartzman with Nadal taking the first set 6-3.

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Oh Kyle and Seppi going for buggy rides, wonder where to ...

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And they have appeared in Hisense. Have a good one ...

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Good morning all!

Looks like a tight match so far (another!) with Kyle having just evened things up.  7-6, 5-7.     Are there any streams available?



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I've not seen Kyle serve so consistently well as this. Well on top, making very few errors.

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