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indiana


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Weeks 35 & 36: US Open, New York (hard)
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I think the Australian Open being first and the US Open last largely is a large factor in their difference retirement rates.

The Australian Open comes soon after a refreshing and / or healing break. By the time of the US Open body and soul may indeed just about be hanging together, but perhaps in many cases more a season long cumulative effect rather than just the American hard court tournaments leading into the US Open ( and many players will still have been playing on clay quite soon beforehand, which could bring in the separate transition to a different surface issue ). This year is excessive with injuries forcing pull outs at the US Open or players not being at their best, but just looking at the various issues a lot of them ( most of the top name ones ) predate the latest American hard court season as could prevailing injuries which force a retement

If there is a large cumulative through the year element one could suggest that the above stats would really then have a pointer against clay having such a rate in May.

It seems in general most pundits and players overall think hard in general toughest on the body ( though some players will have particular concerns with clay and grass based on such as previous injuries or having to adapt their style ) but how much is very difficult to guage with as CD says other factors to take into account.

Always a danger in stats is other factors, which can be difficult to disentangle even if being recognised in the first place. Often A is not worse than B because value x is greater than value y but largely because A has a disproportionate amount of z to deal with.

The Slams are such a small sample in themselves with just one clay and grass Slam at fixed annual venues with say the climatic consideration that brings into play. One could clearly construct a much bigger sample following best of 3 clay and hard court tournaments through the year to compare them for retirements ( would also give an indication if retirements generally increase through the year ) though best of five are a bit different.

Apologies for the ultimate length of the above, but I kept thinking of possible other factors, which is pretty much the point.



-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 2nd of September 2017 08:27:44 AM

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JonH


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I think in the case of this season, the problem that we have now has been brewing for a while.andy, nishikori, raonic, Novak have all had issues all season and maybe longer. Stan and marin developed issues at Wimbledon. Fed on and off, Nadal last season. I think it's an attritional thing. The game is so demanding, no real off season as they all train so hard, travel all year round, last season the summer was silly with the Olympics in rio halfway through the hard season. The top guys have dominated for so long and played maybe 70 to 80 tough matches a year,exacerbated by the style they all play. It takes it toll and I personally think it's no surprise it's all come together. Their bodies and in novaks case their minds are shot. I don't think it's one surface, it's a cumulation



-- Edited by JonH on Saturday 2nd of September 2017 12:17:08 PM

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JonH
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Following flamingowings post, I hadn't realised that Marin Cilic had a serious adductor problem and had only started playing again three weeks ago.

Another top player on the injury list....cry



-- Edited by Coup Droit on Saturday 2nd of September 2017 12:59:14 PM

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flamingowings


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JonH wrote:

I think in the case of this season, the problem that we have now has been brewing for a while.andy, nishikori, raonic, Novak have all had issues all season and maybe longer. Stan and marin developed issues at Wimbledon. Fed on and off, Nadal last season. I think it's an attritional thing. The game is so demanding, no real off season as they all train so hard, travel all year round, last season the summer was silly with the Olympics in rio halfway through the hard season. The top guys have dominated for so long and played maybe 70 to 80 tough matches a year,exacerbated by the style they all play. It takes it toll and I personally think it's no surprise it's all come together. Their bodies and in novaks case their minds are shot. I don't think it's one surface, it's a cumulation



-- Edited by JonH on Saturday 2nd of September 2017 12:17:08 PM

 I think Stan was injured at the French and that was partly why he got such a beatdown from Rafa.



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indiana


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Darn, Del Porto beats Bautista Agut so my 'Vandenburg Appreciation Final' of Bautista Agut vs Carreno Busta' has gone for a burton. Seriously, good to see JMDP going so well.

Thiem through so Vandy's couple of bold prediction winners of Thiem and a non European still going strong



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Spectator


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So Del Potro will play Thiem in the 4th round. In a draw generally somewhat bereft of star power, that feels a bit of a travesty.

Edit: Snap. And yes, if it's not going to be Kevin Anderson taking the title, I'd be happy with JMDP. Or indeed (though with less sense of affection) Thiem. 



-- Edited by Spectator on Saturday 2nd of September 2017 07:29:57 PM

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indiana


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Yes the Fed / Del Potro / Thiem plus for now Lopez and Kohlschreiber ( now waits for one of them to come through ! ) quarter does look rather more like a proper Slam quarter.

And a Del Potro vs Anderson final to emerge from it all would suit me fine.



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Bob in Spain


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Add Monfils to the list of retirees. Goffin progress as Monfils pulls out late in the 2nd set.

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Jaggy1876


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indiana wrote:

Darn, Del Porto beats Bautista Agut so my 'Vandenburg Appreciation Final' of Bautista Agut vs Carreno Busta' has gone for a burton. Seriously, good to see JMDP going so well.

Thiem through so Vandy's couple of bold prediction winners of Thiem and a non European still going strong

 What about my prediction (sort of) of a challenger player in the final?



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indiana


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Read above for my fascinating analysis that there are no challenger players remaining in the bottom half at least

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Bob in Spain


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Nadal loses the 1st set to Leonardo Mayer.

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indiana


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If Mayer WR 59 wins, even with Fed still to play, the men's or women's half with the best cumulative ranking total at the L16 stage will be the much maligned men's bottom half on 261.

With such outliers as Sharapova and Kanepi the women's halves don't come close and the men's top half would have moved up to 263 with Federer vs Lopez winner still to add.

OK, bit of lies, damned lies and statistics re Sharapova and Kanepi's current rankings, but just saying ...



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Bob in Spain


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Rafa survives in 4 sets.



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Bob in Spain


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On another note, Rublev's passage to the L16 has seen him move above Kyle in the Live Rankings. Kyle now stands at WR 46, but the plethora of "challenger" players picking up big points means he is also under threat from two more players now.

One more win for Dolgopolov and Shapovalov (I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere) and each of them would move above Kyle. Dolgopolov will have to take out Nadal to achieve that, whilst Shapovalov will have to beat Carreņo Busta.

In truth though, I am much more worried about Kyle's injury than a couple of places in the rankings. Once the US Open is over, he is scheduled to play St Petersburg (250), Chengdu (250) and Beijing (500) over the following 4 weeks and then no doubt, he will play Shanghai (1000) straight after that, ranking permitting. With a heavy schedule like that, I just hope he is able to compete at full fitness. He still has a substantial points haul to defend this year, (270 points to be precise) but with the form he has been showing, there is no reason a fit Kyle can't do that - and more.



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 3rd of September 2017 12:58:10 AM

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indiana


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Bob in Spain wrote:

Rafa survives in 4 sets.

Nice of him to relatively speed through the last two sets and get the Ashe day session concluded before 9 pm local after these earlier women were far too competitive.

Time women's singles matches had MTBs at one set all so as not to clog things up so  

Been there, done it with hanging around outside for an Ashe night session to begin but not till after 9 pm. They still have to get everyone out, tidy up a bit and get the next crowd in.



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