Katy lost 6-3 6-4 to Kobori in qualies of Gifu. Hopefully that was more due to having to play more than one match in a day than her opponent being too tough for her...
IMO Katy D has a game which is a little one dimensional based on flat deep groundstrokes. If you can deal with them (or get your eye in during the match or are ready for them after a previous match), she's not likely to come up with anything else which is going to surprise you or cause you a problem. I guess it's a criticism which could be levelled at lots of players but I feel it is what has caused her to plateau in the rankings.
IMO Katy D has a game which is a little one dimensional based on flat deep groundstrokes. If you can deal with them (or get your eye in during the match or are ready for them after a previous match), she's not likely to come up with anything else which is going to surprise you or cause you a problem. I guess it's a criticism which could be levelled at lots of players but I feel it is what has caused her to plateau in the rankings.
Yes. And she doesn't really have the size or weight for those shots to be sufficient in themselves. I love Katy as a person, and as a fighter, and think she should certainly make the top-200 at some point, if she carries on and no injuries. But she's never really been a 'pick'.
Katy threatening at least to soon be a top 200 doubles player and quite a bit beyond given how concentrated her points are from May this year on.
Re, for her no doubt, the much more important singles, like CD I so admire Katy as a fighter trying to be all she can be. Whether she will ever make the top 200 I am not so sure. Hope so.
QF: Dunne/Zhao (GBR/CAN) [3] 502 lost to Morisaki/Yonehara (JPN/JPN) 1304 6-3 6-4
(PS Indy, my feeling about the top 200 is very much statistical. Assuming she carries on with no major injuries, she should 'peak' at about age 26 (average). So as she's 22 now and WR 280 or so, I would think she's got to be on track for the top 200 at some point in the next few years).
The idea that somehow our Top 10 juniors are expected to get to Top 200 as a pro still astonishes me.
This simply is not the case in other nations, the expectation is much higher. Top 100 minimum, and then, can they push into 70, 50, 30 or more.
There is a disconnect between British Juniors and the rest.
We seem to somehow be gaming the scheduling or doubles weighting in the Junior rankings, or otherwise just producing players that can play junior tennis successfully to the detriment of the development of a long term game that will flourish in seniors. Players hit a brick wall, and almost have to re-learn parts of their games and tactics.
There are some generalisations in the above, but out of necessity, to save writing 3000 words.
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Data I post, opinions I offer, 'facts' I assert, are almost certainly all stupidly wrong.
Blob, I wasn't saying that getting to be top 200 is great, or the aim of the whole thing, or something amazing, or whatever. We were simply talking about our predictions for Katy Dunne.
Oh, no. That was understood. It was not a comment about contributors personal projections or assessments of Katy, or any other player.
My point was general, with Katy and our other recent top juniors from the start of their professional careers.
Given the rankings that they achieved, we should have similarly ambitious expectations, as other nations do - not hopes. History generally bears this out: top juniors (~10-15 and under) mostly make top 50 at worst.
But we looked at ours and thought they might make top 200. That was not British pessimism, reservedness, or an unwillingness to over-promote ones own chances, but a more realistic assessment of what our players had *actually* learned and developed as juniors, and the gap that would then exist to the transition to the professional game.
Which is why, above, I postulate: "We seem to somehow be gaming the scheduling or doubles weighting in the Junior rankings, or otherwise just producing players that can play junior tennis successfully to the detriment of the development of a long term game that will flourish in seniors."
Developing good junior players, that can be successful in the junior system, the way that tennis is played there, and tailored towards that to the detriment of a career or sound fundamentals.
This is somewhat analogous to the British junior football coaches of local teams, where they teach you to chase after the ball, not formations and tactics; or to 'get stuck in' and put your foot through the ball (or an opponent!), rather than sound technique. That only get you so far.
Is that what is happening in tennis, a short-term mentality, for whatever reason, perhaps the need to finally, after a long time without, produce successful juniors, and a focus on just achieving that target by any means, without consideration that doing so could easily be a cul-de-sac; developmentally speaking. And, more importantly, in terms of professional success, as that is where the most publicity and ability to spread the game is generated.
In sales environments, people will focus only on achieving the targets set them, the wider implications (mostly) are irrelevant, the bonus comes from meeting the target, so people take the shortest route there possible. Similarly, if the LTA or UK Sport, or some other body, linked a section of funding, or performance bonuses, to a formula dictating that there must be 'x' juniors at a certain level, then that target would be met by whatever methods available.
Or. is it even worse, so desperate have we (the LTA) become to counter the criticism that their is no production line or structure for development, that they have produced successful juniors to counter that claim, bu that was the limit of their ambition. They have not implemented a long term improvement, just created the quickest stop to one particular argument.
Either way, or else, there is something disconnected between us and other nations in this respect.
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Data I post, opinions I offer, 'facts' I assert, are almost certainly all stupidly wrong.
Blob, I wasn't saying that getting to be top 200 is great, or the aim of the whole thing, or something amazing, or whatever. We were simply talking about our predictions for Katy Dunne.
As you say CD this was purely our different thoughts on the top 200 potential of one individual, our differing predictions for that.
My own thoughts are also to an extent statistical. Katie reached WR 313 on 01/09/14, aged 19 and very nearly three years ago. Then I would most certainly have predicted top 200 and beyond. In ranking terms though she had spent the last 3 years essentially bobbing either side of the 300 mark. That very marked lengthy stalling is one reason I have such doubts, that and she seems fairly mature and pretty much gives her all. Yes she may at some stage time enough results close enough together to slip into the top 200 but on balance I think probably not.
May Katie make that one big bad prediction in the years to come !
Ah got you, blob. Our latest posts crossed. Our mere mention of the top 200 more just set you off - on some very interesting thoughts may I add, much of which I agree with.