Week 30 - ITF ($60K) - Granby, Canada Hard

hoots · Intermediate Club Player

Week 30 - ITF ($60K) - Granby, Canada Hard

blob · All-time great

Katy was net -5 aces to DF in set 2; Bovina net -1.
Gross net, -4.
Katy lost 4 more points in the set.

hoots · Intermediate Club Player

1-6 third set. Shambolic.

blob · All-time great

I don't know about shambolic, I didn't see the match.
It's another loss for a Brit from a set up (or even better).
There's just this 350-200 ranking band that even our players graduating from decent, or good, junior careers are having extreme difficulty traversing at all, and broadly, much more slowly than their Junior peers from other countries. It's hard to fathom.
Hopefully, they'll all turn out to have JoKo's career trajectory in the similarly long term.

Disappointing evening, but at least the 'ie Katie managed to win her match, though I'm less chipper about her chances of a significant week.
What to do?

Strongbow · All-time great

KB's next opponent also in a 3 setter.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Looks like Katy's serve fell apart in sets 2 & 3. Lots of DF's.
That match was very winnable.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, Katy D in particularly has essentially been in the 250 to 350 range for about 3 years. She was WR 303 in November 2014 aged 19, has a CH 265 from February this year and is currently WR 277. She threatens at times to break out higher without it yet being sustained.

Katie B in the year and a half since she got back from her year out has got up to a CH 235 last month and is currently WR 255. Would certainly hope to see her push on and make Aussie Open qualifying ( she is #220 in this year's race ). Actually US Open qualifying is possible this week but we can return to that if rather pleasantly in a round or two it starts getting interesting.

Slam qualifying should be well in the targets of quite a few of our girls. But yes needs that push towards top 200 and beyond.

Peter too · Tennis legend

R1: BOULTER, Katie (GBR) 7 255 def REIX, Sherazad (FRA) 293 7-5 5-7 7-5
R1: DUNNE, Katy (GBR) 277 lost to BOVINA, Elena (RUS) LL 962 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 1-6

R2: BOULTER, Katie (GBR) 7 255 v GUARACHI MATHISON, Alexa (CHI) Q 491 CH=347 2/11/15

Strongbow · All-time great

R2: BOULTER, Katie (GBR) 7 255 v GUARACHI, Alexa (CHI) 491 Q CH=347 (02/11/2015) JCH=81 (10/03/2008)

Snap smile

-- Edited by Strongbow on Wednesday 26th of July 2017 10:14:16 PM

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Frustrating but not terminal, I feel it's very positive that we have such a decent crop of girls pushing up and beyond 250, but I think one has to reflect on their junior careers and the likelihood of rapid progression.

As juniors this cohort didn't have the consistent weaponary to take apart juniors as 15-16 year olds, they may have briefly flirted with the top 10 as a Junior CH but they form part of a much much larger international cohort with a similar skill level all trying to push on. Drawing parallels with Jo Konta as a junior is that a fair comparison? Obviously she should be an inspiration to them particularly from a work ethic and drive to succeed perspective but how many of this cohort are elite athletes close to 6 ft with the potential to evolve a set of weapons consistent with Jo's skill set.

A number of players slightly younger or older than this cohort had very good junior careers. Katie S is still a junior although transitioning and often considered part of this group but her British contemporaries have all yet to start College. Preceeding this cohort Laura R had weapons and dominated juniors early and progressed at the expected rate until her injury. Hev also had a very strong junior career based more on athleticism and good all round technique strong defence but no nuclear weaponry and is putting together a sustained WTA career. Naomi has a weapon, has learnt how to use it and sits on the cusp of the top 100.

The early access our players get to Wimbledon via WC's does heighten expectation and although providing exposure and experience is a double edged sword. This cohort needs time. I feel Katy B, Gaby T and Freya all have elements of their game that may allow them with time to step up to GS qualies outside Wimbledon and beyond, the reality is it is a very competitive business, success is dependant on incremental growth in all facets of the game and it isn't easy but I really do think one or two of this cohort will manage to dig out a decent career from what is a very attritional process. I wish them all well. It is fascinating that the rest of Katie S's cohort who have made top 10 JCH in the way some of these girls did are going to college.

-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Thursday 27th of July 2017 03:40:21 AM

blob · All-time great

All reasonable points. But this sort of thing should apply to all nations. I'm sure they do. Other nations must have juniors that have not matched hopes and expectations.
But, they also hove those that have over-achieved, and outperformed.
That is the piece of the puzzle that we are missing. None of our players seem to race past expectations. Before Tara (JCH 73) & Naomi Broady (JCH 251), was Georgie Gent the last Brit to make top 200 after an average junior career (JCH 234) ?

These are a random selection of good or decent juniors, analagous to our players, from around the world, across their contemporary years, with height, as that was mentioned.
All of whom have transitioned with better results than any of our similar players.
I've ignored the likes of Ostapenko, Bencic, Kasatkina, Kenin etc etc, as, clearly, these were the oustanding juniors of their group: there often being a marked difference between JWR 1-5 and the rest.
This isn't a full list, by any means, just a sample to illustrate the point.

Caroline Dolehide (USA) [5'7"], 19yo, JCH 16, WR 212, CH 212
Lizette Cabrera (AUS) [5'6"], 19yo, JCH 64, WR 161, CH 155
Viktoria Kuzmova (SVK) [5'11"], 19yo, JCH 24, WR 148, CH 148
Xinyu Gao (CHN) [5'9"], 19yo, JCH 130, WR 187, CH 187
Tamara Zidansek (SLO) [5'10"], 19yo, JCH 16, WR 200, CH 138
Ayano Shimizu (JPN) [5'8"], 19yo, JCH 246, WR 238, CH 234
Oceane Dodin (FRA) [5'10"], 20yo, JCH 180, WR 54, CH 46
Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP) [5'9"], 20yo, JCH 33, WR 86, CH 79
Jana Fett (CRO) [6'0"], 20 yo, JCH 12, WR 138, CH 137
Rebecca Sramkova (SVK) [5'9"], 20 yo, JCH 200, WR 155, CH 111
Valentini Grammatikopolou (GRE) [5'9"], 20 yo, JCH 190, WR 181, CH 159
Nadia Podoroska (ARG) [5'5"], 20 yo, JCH 169, WR 195, CH 158
Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) [5'8"], 20 yo, JCH 22, WR 196, CH 174
Barbara Haas (AUT) [5'6"], 20 yo, JCH 22, WR 157, CH 134
etc. etc.

And that's just a fraction of 19 and 20 year olds. Nothing of 21-22 year olds, to take us up to Katy Dunne's peers.

Yes, some of these may have lower JCH becasue they chose to stop playing, or play very sparingly in Juniors. That would not give them enough tournaments to fully represent the ranking they would have reached had they played a full schedule. That does not apply to everyone though, for most, the figures will be a fair representation of their full efforts expended.

At some point, you can't just make exceptions for all these, and any others too, by suggesting there was always some special factor that excludes them from the set. Such as, 'big weapons'.
At some point, we have to wonder why, even with our juniors reaching good rankings, they are then left trailing upon exposure to professional game. Why are we always seemingly the exceptions, and not amongst the set that makes up the rule??
The comparison to Johanna, was of someone who had a decent junior career (JCH 11), and struggled for years to break through, but came good (great!) in the long run. Jo is 5'10", not 6'. In height terms, if that alone is a detrminant factor, that is only top half of the top ~250, borderline upper quartile, but not exceptional.

Do we now see a good junior career as predominantly a ticket to a good, subsidised education?

The Optimist · ATP qualifying

TBH, most of our good women were at some point or other under the direct control of the LTA (except perhaps Gabi T), where they were taught not to lose (coaches and managers judged by their players' results). Even Jo had that mentality until training at the NTC was shelved. They are all moving on from that now in their new training bases (Harriet being a prime example) but I think it has held them back overall. Even those not based at the NTC would have been given targets and tournament schedules from on high.

Not sure what to make of Freya's sudden slump though. I believe she is based at JTC in west London now - maybe she misses being near her family in Nottingham? My own feeling is that she has some kind of long term injury issue, although I have no specific knowledge to back this up.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Good points, as always, by The O. I feel that a big part of the problem is that our youngsters are 'maxed' out in terms of their junior rankings - compared to many other European countries, they (under the guidance of the LTA) focus entirely on their junior ranking and are judged entirely by it - they play very little adult tennis, team tennis, national championships etc etc . So their junior rankings are absolutely tip- top for their level and therfore often rather misleading. (Hence, looked at the other way, players like Jay and Ryan were not really part of the A team group, because their ranking at 16 - 17 wasn't high enough, despite being very clearly two very promising players).
And

blob · All-time great

Start of the days play was delayed by the weather, but Katie's match is finally on court, 4-0*
Hoping to avoid yesterday's fluctuations, no doubt.

indiana · Tennis legend

Katie strides to the first set 6-0, how boring

Actually 31-18 on points shows it's not really destruction but still very good to see.