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Post Info TOPIC: Week 27/28 Wimbledon Main Draw - Singles


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Wimbledon Main Draw


I reckon Harriet is on a win-win in that case

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I don't think Laura is favourite, but I don't think she's a 2/1 underdog either. She has hardly beaten any top 100 players recently, but won't get many better chances.

Heather could make 2nd week with her draw if she reproduces her Eastbourne form. Sevastova and Vesnina are the seeds in her section. Azarenka is also she, but she is a bit of an unknown quantity at this stage.



-- Edited by tony_orient on Friday 30th of June 2017 06:17:50 PM

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DF wrote:


Harriet and Katy take on the last British pair Naomi and Harriet


She'll certainly have to do some 'Darting' around from one side of the net to the other in that match! wink

(sorry, couldn't resist the chance for such a terrible pun) 



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deleted as Steven beat me to it!



-- Edited by goldfish on Friday 30th of June 2017 06:15:24 PM

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steven wrote:
tony_orient wrote:

Very nice draw all round, for the first round at least. Jo will obviously be looking for much more than one win, and her draw could be tricky down the line (if it holds up which you can never predict it will with the WTA at the moment).

Bookies are saying the Brits have less chance than I though they might:
Jo 79%
Hev 76%
Naomi 43%
Laura 34%
Katie 17%
Expected wins: 2.5

If you fancy a bet on Laura, then get on now as I'm sure the odds won't be as good by Monday.


I'm now wishing it was possible to put a bet on tennis over here - even at her current level, Laura would have to have a complete nightmare to avoid beating Haddad Maia on grass - the Brazilian is 1-5 on grass in seniors (the win was in 2015) and while she has beaten a British Laura at the All England Club, that was Laura Deigman at junior Wimbledon and even that Laura took a set off her.

The best of a remarkably kind set of GB draws (which doesn't mean I think they should all win but all have a chance), the opposite of what happened with the women's qualifying draw, where Tara, Gabi and Katy all went out to eventual qualifiers, with Tara in QR1 and Katy in QR2 taking more games off those qualifiers than anyone else managed. 


 I looked at skybet a few hours ago and Laura was 7/4 now she's drifted to 2/1 go figure. Yes Haddad has won a couple of matches this year on grass, but has lost tightish matches against solid top 100 players in the same way Laura has. With Laura'a Wimby experience and with the support for her from the crowd against a young player, I don't see the reason for the odds. I rarely have a bet on tennis, but I've been tempted in this time. With LR though stakes should be kept to a minimum lol.



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Bet365 is showing Laura at 7/4 and Haddad at 4/9
10/3 Laura in straight sets !

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I have started a separate thread for the doubles.

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RE: Week 27/28 Wimbledon Main Draw - Singles


steven wrote:
wolf wrote:

As far as I can tell Haddad Maia is 4-6 on grass, not 1-5. This year she has qualified for Mallorca and lost a very, very close match to Barthel in Eastbourne qualifying. I would put her as favourite.


Oops, stupid me - too much going on at the moment - I'm not sure how I missed the Mallorca wins though, unless they've only appeared on ITF in the last few hours (which I doubt)


They were on there earlier - I checked as soon as the draw came out.



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I think the bookies aren't so stupid on their odds on this occasion. Johanna, if fit, will be way too strong for Hsieh, and Heather is on fine form and should come through comfortably against Zanevska. I've a sneaking suspicion that Naomi is going to have a great tournament and her match could be very close, but I do think the bookies have got it right in making Haddad Maia favourite and McHale probably has the experience to prevail over Katie, but with home crowd support, you never know, especially if they schedule Laura and Katie on to one of the smaller, and therefore noisier and more intense outside courts.

Still it was a great draw for us and none of the five matches are unwinnable, I think

I think 3 out of 5 will come through, but I haven't given up on any of our women making it, and I think that Heather and Naomi could have a real run this year. Naomi has so much unfulfilled potential and I just think at some point she is going to show just how good she can be.

I'm already looking forward to the potential Round 2 match up of Naomi taking on Sabine Lisicki, and Heather mixing it with Vesnina in Round 3; if either of them come through those, then they could really go far. Laura of course, would almost certainly face Halep if she gets through Round One.

Anyway I'm up from the South Coast on the 3.50 am train from Brighton on Sunday to join the queue (hope with no delays to arrive at 7 30 am) and to cheer our girls on - hopefully they will not put our British girls on unassigned courts as so often happens - they always hold back a couple of matches for unassigned courts, and it is nearly always the Brits; it makes catching any of them impossible unless you are one of the lucky few with all court passes. Naomi's match will be the highlight for me, but I'd like to catch Heather and Laura too, and I've always had a soft spot for Vesnina, so if I'm really lucky I'll see all 4, but that of course is in the hands of the schedulers.

Love tennis but hate camping, by the way, in case anyone thinks I'm one of those camping nutters or cameras please look at me freaks that you always get at the front of the queue. Wish I lived in London as it would make it so much easier... 

 



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Andy Parker


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Interesting that, when you look at the top 32 seeds, Junior Wimbledon results are absolutely no indication of potential when it comes to adult competition.

From Juki tennis:

Best Junior Wimbledon results for the 32 Ladies' seeds this year.

12 reached QF or better, 12 lost early and 8 never contested.

pbs.twimg.com/media/DDmq45pVwAESm8l.jpg



-- Edited by Coup Droit on Saturday 1st of July 2017 08:06:20 AM

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Coup Droit wrote:

Interesting that, when you look at the top 32 seeds, Junior Wimbledon results are absolutely no indication of potential when it comes to adult competition.


 It all depends on what you mean by potential. If you mean an indicator of winning the Wimbledon title that is true - Amelie Mauresmo and Martina Hingis being the last to win both. However it is an indicator of potential to have a career partly or totally at Tour level. Of the winners in the last 20 years who are post juniors only Noppawan Lertcheewakarn has failed to enter the WTA top 100. The rest vary in terms of impact near the top of the game, but around half have been seeded at grand slams at some point in their career (similar percentage for the junior runners-ups)



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Very interesting link from Coup Droit - it would give all those who don't do anything as juniors great encouragement not to give up.

I guess there are a number of factors - some children don't grow much bigger in physique until late on and so miss out looking great as juniors, others fall by the wayside because of injury and some come from areas of the world or from families that don't put their toddlers into events and so end up coming in to tennis later and having a more normal childhood, and those ones are maybe fresher, more likely to be injury-free, and more self-motivated to succeed in tennis than someone who has been pushed into tennis too early.

I think as well it shows the huge gulf between junior and adult tennis; I have lost count of how many juniors have been touted as the next big thing and then do nothing on the adult stage, and it is great to know that so many of our top players have come through without the fanfare that comes from winning Junior Wimbledon.



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Andy Parker


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David, I wasn't meaning winning Wimbledon (either juniors or adult).

I think I should have used correlation to seeding, not potential. And I guess it might just be this year, and not common.

But the fact that 8 of the seeds never ever played Junior Wimbledon is curious.

And that 12 of the top seeds including Kvitova, Halep, Kerber, Pliskova etc. never even got to the QFs...

It does give pause for thought...

(Of course, Ostapenko may well now go and blow it out of the water ! )

Add: Andy, I agree. I was amazed (and delighted) at some of those names that had never done 'well'. There's also simply a mathematical problem with juniors. Given age, the top 20 juniors change every couple of years, max. They have to. Nearly all the top 20 players are within two years of each other. So, by definition, you get zillions of 'top' juniors. Whereas top 20 adults is far more stable. You can be there for 10 years, even longer if you're lucky. So there's no way that all those top 20 juniors can ever, ever feed into top 20 adults. We have to lose a whole chunk.



-- Edited by Coup Droit on Saturday 1st of July 2017 10:16:29 AM

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Essentially there are two main routes used by players to the top of the game. Over half of the top 32 seeds here were top juniors, winning junior grand slams or at least reaching the top 5, although not necessarily performing well at junior Wimbledon. Most of the rest concentrated on playing Pro circuit from an early age and reached top 300 (often a lot higher) whilst a junior. That just leaves 2 as encouragement for those who haven't achieved those levels by 18. One is Jo Konta (a junior high of 11 and WTA ranking of 360 at the end of juniors) and the other (more promisingly) Kiki Bertens - who only played one junior ITF tournament (Fed Cup), and was a mere 569 WTA at the end of juniors, which at least is the sort of level quite a few of our top juniors reach. So well done Kiki!

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Very interesting. Wondering if junior success at any of the other junior Slams more correlates with this year's 32 Wimbledon seeds.

Grass is not a surface a lot of the juniors will have been very familiar with at all although I am guessing that at least as many top juniors generally choose to give junior Wimbledon a go as the other junior Slams and I imagine certainly moreso than the Aussie Open.

I think there may have been looks at correlations between best junior ranking and senior rankings previously on the forum.

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