Applying the margins in the locals as best they can fit to the constituencies for a General Election, I came up with this back-of-an-envelope calculation

indiana wrote:

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Big envelopes you've got

The more extreme May+ get on Brexit the better the Tories seem to be looking    ( just do hope they start realistically negotiating post the election, though if they've been given in their eyes a huge mandate ... )

Jaggy can be assured my cross won't be going in their direction. I and I hope many more than the envelope suggests will vote Lib Dem ( slight process of absolute elimination*, but still )

* meaning in my eyes absolute elimination of voting for anyone else as distinct to absolute elimination of the Lib Dems !

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 6th of May 2017 11:51:15 AM

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Good man Indiana, if anybody wants to know what type of person (the gains not the regular minorities/middle classes) is voting Tory in Scotland it's basically orange order unionists and Protestants, or Rangers fans as we call them up here. It's all a bit sad really protest votes against Indyref2. Some of the social media posts from these people tell you all you need to know. And the ignorance of what they are voting for is crazy. Some have even admitted they don't care.

Whats happening in UK politics is mirroring the US in so many way, all negative voting. In England its Brexit or a failing Labour Party, in Scotland its Unionist protection. The Tory policy is hiding in plain view but it doesn't seem to matter. Scary times.

Oakland2002 wrote:

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Education is a primary concern, I see no evidence of any understanding of what is required to educate 80% of the nations children, those that do not get into grammar schools. Teresa May is fixated on replicating the education she had for the small proportion of society who have the resources to facilitate extra tuition so their 10 year old can pass the 11 plus. The Torys will not invest in teachers and smaller class sizes or focus on revising the school curriculum to focus on skills relevant to the current/furure work place. Very few if any have any experience or understanding of how most of society is educated. They for the most part were educated privately.

The 11 plus is something I do not think I would have been capable of passing purely on the grounds that at 10 I was completely clueless about what I was being tested on, and the process of being tested. Personally although educated at a poor school statistically, a comprehensive education served me very well until the age of 16. Large class sizes of 32-35 failed many of my contemporaries who lay outside the top 20% who would have been selected for a grammar school had it existed but would have done well in a private school with a class size of 22.

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In Brazil they have a novel way of keeping class sizes smaller with limited facilities.   Each school does a double shift during the day and parents are given the choice of sending their kids to school in the morning or in afternoon.  The morning shift runs from 7am to midday.  There is then a 1 hour turnaround time and the afternoon shift runs from 1pm to 6pm.  This effectively doubles the physical capacity of the school, or in other words, halves the class sizes.

Would this work in the UK ?  There are clearly downsides to this.  From the teachers point of view, the days are longer. You would need to increase the number of staff to cover for those who only wanted to do mornings or afternoons.  Another downside would be childcare problems for the parents.  And of course, after school sports would take a hit.  But with a bit of imagination, the idea could certainly help to bring down those class sizes.

Coup Droit wrote:

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Bob in Spain wrote:

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Talking about elections, I think that large parts of France (and indeed Europe) will be breathing a massive sigh of relief tonight.

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Yes, indeed. The result was never in question but the majority could have been a lot less.

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I might have to forgive the French for being unbearably smug for having avoided the lurch to nationalism/xenophobia of the anglophone countries (at least in terms of referendum/election outcomes), given that at least the French did the right thing.

There's still plenty of need to be vigilant en France though - Le Pen's total was a massive increase on the FN's previous tallies in presidential elections and pretty close to the %age Adolf Hitler got against Paul von Hindenburg in the 2nd round of the German presidential elections in 1932, a year before he came to power, when PvH was elected mainly by people who'd voted against him for being too right-wing in 1925 reluctantly voting for him to keep Hitler out. Hopefully any such parallels end there (at least the new French President isn't in his 80s and in failing health like PvH was, for a start!) but I hope Macron manages to do a good job, otherwise the FN danger isn't going to go away any time soon.

The other worrying thing about France is that whereas Trump, Brexit and May (whose embrace of the former KIPpers who are likely to give her a huge majority is becoming more nauseating by the day) tend to have a lot of support among the older generations and much less support among the younger generations, the situation in France is the reverse of that. Maybe it's because the older generations in France had first-hand experience of living under fascism (or at least their parents did) in a way those in the UK and US did not, even if they fought against it, but that doesn't augur too well for the future across the Channel.

In many ways it's not funny, but I did have to smile at a suggestion for a name for Marine le Pen's soon-to-be-rebranded party I saw on Twitter - why not, someone asked, call it "I Can't Believe It's Not Vichy" ... 

A big problem we have is Labour party members who gave the Labour Party a leader who was never credibly going to lead them to election victory. They even endorsed their foolishness as if they are not interested in ousting the Tories ( who have big faults and the country at this time needed a credible alternative, the Labour Party does not provide one ).

Jeremy is not going to compromise his views and / or become electable. The members needed to compromise theirs and see the bigger picture if they want a Labour government.