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Post Info TOPIC: Week 10 - WTA Premier Mandatory ($7M) - Indian Wells, CA, USA - Hard
indiana


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Week 10 - WTA Premier Mandatory ($7M) - Indian Wells, CA, USA - Hard
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Oakland2002 wrote:

Kayla's win is a subjective upset but objectively a highly predictable event. You could not possibly get a more predictable upset as the present rankings sit!!

Particularly when you look at the boxes she and her opponents sit in statistically when considering rank by age. You could consider her the lowest rank of what is a negatively skewed statistical box of players not yet 18 likely to become a full time WTA touring pro. Cici Bellis would be a negative outlier from a rankings perspective.

Kayla's precocity sticks her in a separate box ie high likelihood of being a top 10 WTA touring pro. I say that as along with Cici she sits outside the general pattern of the best players featuring by rank in the top 20 cohort more than a year above their age, a cohort that doesn't really exist until you look at those not yet turned 21! 

Subjectively she has the luxury of sitting in the shadow of Cici who is so precocious a win against a higher ranked opponent is considered an inevitable consequence of an emerging superstar so not an upset. Where as the precocity of Kayla is unrecognised by the less objective tennis fan and subjectively labelled an upset when statistically it is not much different from a Cici win.

Now looking at the other extreme of rank by age, this a cohort of players arguably most vulnerable to an (subjective) upset. In that respect her opponent could be considered to have a rank placing her in the tail of a skewed distribution compounded by the chronicity cohort she sits in. She features in the best rank by age cohort of players older than 28 and in the cohort at least 33 where the drop off in rank behind her is ferocious ie a win against the next best ranked player at least 33 subjectively would not be considered an upset! A bit like the Cici situation but in reverse!

So objectively when considered statistically Kayla's is a highly predictable event given the match up. So objectively not an upset at all!



-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Saturday 11th of March 2017 06:35:28 AM



-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Saturday 11th of March 2017 06:36:21 AM



-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Saturday 11th of March 2017 06:40:57 AM

 

All that noted and just about deciphered, if not entirely agreed with, most particularly the main conclusion, I would say in the here and now, based on recent months, good as Kayla undoubtably is, while I originally really meant a ranking / vs seed upset, in truth I would say this was certainly both a subjective and objective upset. What it is not is a "highly predictable event".

Hardly the biggest ever upset and on an off Lucic-Baroni day and an err on Day day one could see it happening, and what is predictable is that that some upsets will happen. But still this was an upset in any sense.



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Oakland2002


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Thanks for pointing out the match had happened and the history around both players.

"Upset" noun: an unexpected change or result.

My point is that statistically this was about as predictable an upset that you could get in that both players are at the extremes of elite careers punching well above their weight and statistically one the player with the lowest rank (underanked as still has a high junior rank consistent with playing two tours junior and senior) most likely to show rapid development and the player most likely to show most rapid decline, (or quit) she sits in a precipitous position at 30 with the next ranked Schiavona at a rank of 157! The men just do not do that, all the best players at least 33 on the end side are in the top 100, the 20th ranked women is ranked 879!

One can ignore evidence, and indeed the likes of Jim Inhofe and Steven Bannon make a fabulous living out of doing that but when one looks close at definitions and evidence.

Was this result unexpected given the evidence, not really.



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indiana


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Or one can look at the evidence and decide that far from being a highly predictable event it was an upset

Look at the evidence of what the individual, Lucic-Baroni has been achieving even, indeed particularly, lately against what Day has been achieving. That is the main evidence, not the ranking of her next peer ( Kimiko Date-Krumm for much of the later part of her career might as well not have turned up given how far she must have been ranked above her next peer, so clearly her form was just about to fall of the cliff ) or how Day compares vs her peers and what she may become. And anyway, what's with the comparison with the supposedly next ranked of such an age, Schiavone? Both Williams sisters are older than Mirjana !!

While quite clearly players are often on the up or down and at significantly different rates what matters most as to favourites / upsets is the recent results and performances and expected ongoing desire ( much reason for Lucic-Baroni to want to continue to enjoy her renewed place in the sun ).

Again, upsets often happen and this was hardly the greatest shock ever, but I continue to disagree with your conclusions. I'm really trying to avoid giving a list of respective scorelines and opponents and their rankings given it is public record. And beyond that there is really not much more to say on a simple remark that is for some reason being so challenged - which in itself is fair enough ( you don't get away with too much on this forum   ), but for me the evidence against is flawed and / or unconvincing.

Upset !  



-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 11th of March 2017 03:00:18 PM

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AliBlahBlah


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Don't remember the US clocks changing before ours too often, but they have, and so Jo's match (and Dan's) is under way aleady, 2-1*
Not expecting much from Jo today, for no particularly well constructed reason.

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AliBlahBlah


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First set done, just the one BP in it, which Jo took. Serving low-ish %, but effectively, 6-3

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paulisi


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Comfortable from Jo - Garcia struggling to return serve effectively

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Coup Droit


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Just got a bit more tricky as Caro breaks JoKo and leads 4-2



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indiana


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Ah yes, I believe the US clocks ( and I guess North America as a whole ) have gone to summer time before us for a while*. It had been on my mind, but then totally forgotten about come the relevant day.

Jo has just been broken in the second set, 6-3 2-4*

 

* - why are we so late ? - seems light early enough now for even the most northern farmers or whoever. But then I'm a never revert to GMT radical for absolutely selfish reasons, I prefer later light  



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Grachka


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Johanna Konta GBR 6-3 3-6 3-2* Caroline Garcia FRA

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indiana


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Jo 5-4*

Win the next game, Jo, and get out of that heat !

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indiana


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A couple of quick games with aces #10 and #11 for Jo and it's 6-5*

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indiana


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And so to a final set TB.

Jo 1/6 BP conversions in the match, Caroline 1/4. Jo 74% service points won against Caroline 70%.

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PaulM


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Jo played like she was carrying the weight of the world on her shoulders.

Disappointing. Better next week please.

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Jan


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Not the Jo we've become accustomed to seeing recently.

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Peter too


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Caroline's service games just got stronger and stronger and the times when Jo did get a break point she couldn't convert.

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