Nice lead to sleep on though nicer still if Jay was already in the final.
I was looking into some British 18 / 19 yo stats.
Jay is the 5th British man / boy to reach the top 500 as an 18 yo since Andy reached it as a 17 yo, the other 4 in chronological order being Dan Evans, Dan Cox, Oli Golding and Kyle Edmund.
Some mixed following years for these. Though for the two who have then reached the top 400 before their 19th birthday what has followed to date ( in differing routes ) has been rather good. The two being Evo ( reached WR 316 before 19, now top 50 ) and Kyle ( reached WR 307 before 19, now top 50 ). Andy reached WR 41, now top 1 !
Jay will reach 19 on 27th July, and if he at least reaches the final tomorrow he should certainly be moving into the top 450 ( and to GB #11 ) on Monday week.
Of course, so much remains uncertain and so much down to the individual ( just the mention of Oli is a reminder of that ) but I think interesting nevertheless
The mention of Oli in Indi's list of 4 making the top 500 as 18 year olds to me is pretty reassuring in that Jay has had show significant resilience to get to the point he has, where as Oli's journey got tougher once he had made the top 500 and when resilience was required he quit. So assuming resilience and being in the top 500 as an 18 year are prerequisites perhaps we could look at Dan, Dan and Kyle as historical correlates (that's 2 out of 3 making the top 50 at this point).
I am a firm believer in top 200 as a teenager as a marker of top 50 potential, in Kyles cohort and those immediately before very few teenagers were ticking that box 2-3 a year, presently there are 11! This generally reflects progression into QF's or better at challenger level.
The lag in the 92, 93 and 94 corhorts is perhaps a product of the new world order of professionalism as good players initially extended their careers blocking influx from below, the entire cohort of 20 players older than 33 are all in the top 100, inevitably they cannot all play on into their late 30's at this level resisting the pressure from below and adjustment is imminent.
-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Sunday 12th of March 2017 08:23:26 AM