QR2:  (q3) Daniel Nguyen (USA) WR 330 defeated Luke Bambridge WR 617 by 7-6(5) 7-5

I don't know about poor conversion rates, when compared to football academies it isn't at all bad. There is no real capacity to constantly trial and burn players in the way football academies do, the technical skill set is so much more sophisticated that it neutralises athleticism until there is parity (or close to). Late transition to tennis at 12+ isn't feasible where as an athlete could still move to football. The most successful football academies out of every cohort of juniors cut more than half at 18, perhaps offering professional contracts to 4 or 5 boys and then of those 1 or 2 of those are around the first team U23's.

Take a look at Arsenals academy set up, there is an interesting but now quite old Daily Mail article looking at the best of their best (recruited from around the world) "Arsenals League cup kids where are they now?" and although there are some very recognisable names in there; Fabregas for example, many peaked on that day, often still playing but at the likes of Spalding and Corby. Very few ever reached the top 150 in the world and at least one of those who did was Spanish!

-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Tuesday 24th of January 2017 06:35:40 AM

RJA wrote:

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paulisi wrote:

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Joe and Luke presumably aiming for doubles success - I assume together... singles just a bonus

Both will end up as doubles specialists.

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While I guess you are right about Luke I do feel that this another case of a good youngster slipping through the net. There is so much about his singles game that has always looked good and by almost all accounts he is a hard working guy with a good attitude but for whatever reason his singles career just hasn't developed in the way that I, and many others, thought it would.

If you look back at the 93-95 born players we had George, Kyle, Liam, Luke and Oli who all had pretty good junior careers but so far only Kyle has gone on to a good singles level as an adult. It is a very disappointing "conversion" rate. 

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 IMO all this group, and Evo as well to an extent, suffered from the LTA's absolute focus on international junior competition during their mid to late teens.  They were largely treated like little superstars, flown around the world, every need met but nothing done to help them with the upcoming transition to seniors.  I guess Billy X and Suzy Y winning a G1 junior event made better headlines than them losing in the QF of a 10K!  Consequently many of them lost their way after an abrupt move to the adult circuit with games that were in many cases still honed for junior rather than adult competition, playing in grotty low key venues rather than with the glitz and razzamatazz of junior G1s, GAs and grand slams.  Kyle is the exception, but I suspect those around him kept his feet firmly on the ground and his eyes on a solid long term plan.  I agree, the others highlight the LTA's propensity for wasting both money and talent...

I feel to the credit of the current administration, good juniors are now encouraged to start transitioning as early as possible which hopefully should help matters for the current crop.

The Optimist wrote:

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RJA wrote:

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paulisi wrote:

---

Joe and Luke presumably aiming for doubles success - I assume together... singles just a bonus

Both will end up as doubles specialists.

---

While I guess you are right about Luke I do feel that this another case of a good youngster slipping through the net. There is so much about his singles game that has always looked good and by almost all accounts he is a hard working guy with a good attitude but for whatever reason his singles career just hasn't developed in the way that I, and many others, thought it would.

If you look back at the 93-95 born players we had George, Kyle, Liam, Luke and Oli who all had pretty good junior careers but so far only Kyle has gone on to a good singles level as an adult. It is a very disappointing "conversion" rate. 

---

 IMO all this group, and Evo as well to an extent, suffered from the LTA's absolute focus on international junior competition during their mid to late teens.  They were largely treated like little superstars, flown around the world, every need met but nothing done to help them with the upcoming transition to seniors.  I guess Billy X and Suzy Y winning a G1 junior event made better headlines than them losing in the QF of a 10K!  Consequently many of them lost their way after an abrupt move to the adult circuit with games that were in many cases still honed for junior rather than adult competition, playing in grotty low key venues rather than with the glitz and razzamatazz of junior G1s, GAs and grand slams.  Kyle is the exception, but I suspect those around him kept his feet firmly on the ground and his eyes on a solid long term plan.  I agree, the others highlight the LTA's propensity for wasting both money and talent...

I feel to the credit of the current administration, good juniors are now encouraged to start transitioning as early as possible which hopefully should help matters for the current crop.

---

 Agree with this post 100%

What strikes me about kyle is how level headed he is and how nice he comes across, he is never tweeting every hour about things etc, no sense of 'me' all about me etc. The way some of these people tweet, (a few of the names mentioned) you'd think they have a fan base the size of lady ga ga.  You have to put a hard hard grind in at futures level going to awful places if you are going to make it, and I think after the showbiz of junior wimbledon and **** like that, they cannot be arsed. 

I thought that the general impression of Oli was that he was immature and while he had outward brovado I have heard said that underneath he seemed a decent lad. Anyway, perhaps all the more reason to handle with care.

One wonders whether part of the insistence on juniors was also about being able to point to numbers ranked in the top whatever.

I'm no expert and rely almost wholly on live stream, but I did think Oli Golding had a lot of potential. Then again, Julien Hoferlin thought so ... and he did know whereof he spoke. I wouldn't venture to comment on personality, never having met him. But to an external eye, there was a lot going on around him in terms of other people's expectations and wishes ... and that's not easy for anyone to handle, let alone a teenager who's very visible. Kyle Edmund clearly has a superb character, work ethic and team around him. But that's a high standard - and while it's good that it's been set, other people with different circumstances may find it hard to live up to.

kundalini wrote:

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The Optimist wrote:

---

RJA wrote:

---

paulisi wrote:

---

Joe and Luke presumably aiming for doubles success - I assume together... singles just a bonus

Both will end up as doubles specialists.

---

While I guess you are right about Luke I do feel that this another case of a good youngster slipping through the net. There is so much about his singles game that has always looked good and by almost all accounts he is a hard working guy with a good attitude but for whatever reason his singles career just hasn't developed in the way that I, and many others, thought it would.

If you look back at the 93-95 born players we had George, Kyle, Liam, Luke and Oli who all had pretty good junior careers but so far only Kyle has gone on to a good singles level as an adult. It is a very disappointing "conversion" rate. 

---

 IMO all this group, and Evo as well to an extent, suffered from the LTA's absolute focus on international junior competition during their mid to late teens.  They were largely treated like little superstars, flown around the world, every need met but nothing done to help them with the upcoming transition to seniors.  I guess Billy X and Suzy Y winning a G1 junior event made better headlines than them losing in the QF of a 10K!  Consequently many of them lost their way after an abrupt move to the adult circuit with games that were in many cases still honed for junior rather than adult competition, playing in grotty low key venues rather than with the glitz and razzamatazz of junior G1s, GAs and grand slams.  Kyle is the exception, but I suspect those around him kept his feet firmly on the ground and his eyes on a solid long term plan.  I agree, the others highlight the LTA's propensity for wasting both money and talent...

I feel to the credit of the current administration, good juniors are now encouraged to start transitioning as early as possible which hopefully should help matters for the current crop.

---

 Naomi Cavaday has written at length about the downside of games developed to win at junior level, rather than to be competitive at the professional level. Even when Liam Broady was at his career high, his game made little sense to me, desperately short of weapons capable of hurting decent opponents. 

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  Interesting point, I was rather confused recently, when  Liam got to 150 ish the world, he did everything ok, but nothing amazing, not many weapons, bit like Jamie Baker in that respect.  Liam is a fighter though, and probably should have a decent challenger career at the minimum, not quite sure he is top 100 material ever though.