Week 40 - ITF ($25K) - Redding CA, USA - Hard

Julia Carrot · All-time great

RE: Week 40 - ITF ($25K) - Redding CA, USA - Hard

steven · Tennis legend

Laura lost the 1st set 6-2

but she's an early break up in the 2nd *3-1

Julia Carrot · All-time great

philwrig wrote:
Laura's opponent did win the Eddie Herr last year, so clearly has talent, but still Laura should be winning this match comfortably.

Phil, she heard you !

Oakland2002 · All-time great

As to the specific Katie vs Michaela there is more here than simply that the result "merely confirms world number 402 beat the world number 759". Katie has a full set of 16 counters, albeit still within a year of her return from a year out so I see still see plenty upside. Michaela has just 10 counters, indeed 13 tournaments in total within the last year, so no doubt with a full compliment she would be ranked rather higher and like most juniors of such age and ability is also on a fairly upward curve. In truth I was prepared for Michaela having played less senior tournaments than she has and there are undoubtably much better examples of drastically underranked junior or college players. Their UTR ratings, being well within 1 point of each other, indicated a likely competitive match and I was not oversurprised that it had Michaela ahead. Anyway, I doubt UTRs are going anywhere, and as I mentioned the LTA are now apparently very much cooperating. While still no doubt more relevant for colleges, where many use them and regard them well. I think more purpose is served by discussion within tennis as to how they might be better collated / used better than turning face against them.

So it wasn't a UTR "shock" (tabaloid) it was a UTR type II error (statistician)

Similarly wakefield's misrepresentation of his research findings suggesting MMR lead to autism resulted in failure of uptake of the MMR vaccine and a drop in heard immunity and the re-emergence of meseales as a child killing disease. I am not suggesting that uptake of UTR will have a similar catastrophic outcome, indeed in the longer term Michaela may progress to be a better player than Katie just that given the players involved and the enormous amount contextual data (as described) a toss of a coin would have been more accurate .., or would it .... probably ... but for the definitive answer you would have to ask Schrödinger's cat!

paulisi · Tennis legend

Harriet has just won in straight sets.

Jan · Hall of fame

Laura's match is so close.
*5-6 in the 3rd.

edit - into the TB and as luck would have it I have to go out in 5mins!

-- Edited by Jan on Wednesday 5th of October 2016 06:48:06 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

Laura broke for 5*4, but two DF in the next game allowed Kylie back in. Into the tiebreak ....

theemptyvessel · Club Coach

Oh dear lost the tb 7-2

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Oh dear, another L for Laura

the addict · Tennis legend

Not a good tie-break - just the one point for this week, which isn't a lot of help in the rankings.
Hope this is just another off-day, and the form will reappear next week

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

There's no getting away from that being a pretty poor loss for Laura. As with last week she got well on top in set 2 but couldn't maintain the momentum, but even if struggling for form she should have closed it out once getting up 5-4 in the deciding set. It seems like she has lost a lot of form after getting injured in the match against Oudin.

the addict · Tennis legend

Katie B's turn on court now - up a break at *3-1

philwrig · Hall of fame

I thought Laura played well enough last week, but this week it was back to mid summer form, without seeing it, it's tough to judge, but so much of Laura's game is physchological, unless she's prepared to run every ball down at this level, losses like this will keep coming. The doubles scoreline was not encouraging from yesterday, and Freya's form is way more consistent, so clearly Laura's level is down this week for whatever reason. I hope noone was tempted to take the 1/10 odds, but Harriet who was similar odds did at least win.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Julia Carrot wrote:
philwrig wrote:
Laura's opponent did win the Eddie Herr last year, so clearly has talent, but still Laura should be winning this match comfortably.
Phil, she heard you !

I'm not sure what happened in that 2nd set, very strange ;)

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

Laura doesn't have any events to play next week which might be a good thing. It feels like she hasn't had any sort of break from tournaments since March (apart from a 7 hour holiday), and after 18 months of no tennis and then 9 months of only sporadic play the full time schedule might be catching up with her now.