Lordy Lordy something to look forward to nothing to loose everything to gain.
Our team is only going to get stronger over the next few years.
I swear that's Nigel Farage's hat
I was rather hoping to have more chance of gaining, not that I dismiss our task as impossible.
While it is good to think that our team will get stronger that is not a given. So I'd like to have seen the draw appear to give us more chance of progressing here and now, in 2017, and at least not be back in that ruddy regional group again next year !!!
Come over to the dark side, things are not always positive.
-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 14th of February 2017 06:46:03 PM
This will be Romania's 7th Fed Cup tie since emerging from the regional group (and beating us along the way), and 6th home tie. The previous 5 have been 3 on Hard and 2 on Clay, with 2 being in Bucharest, 2 in Cluj-Napoca and 1 in Galati. Having made it all the way to WG1, Romania have since lost the last three ties.
Despite my complaints about the draw, IF Halep doesn't play and IF it's on a Hard court (both unlikely I expect) then I think the draw if fair enough as we would be facing the same challenge that Belgium overcame to relegate Romania to the playoffs in the first place.
Jo should win 2, leaving us 3 chances to seal the win in the remaining rubbers.
Has Konta v 2.0 done much on clay? As we saw with Kyle, surface can change someone's competencies dramatically. I'm gonna assume it will be clay, given that Konta has excelled on hardcourt.
Ok, lets say Jo wins 2 matches. I'm writing off Heather beating Halep. So Hev has got to beat their number two or we need to win in the doubles. Who's feeling confident about either of those things happening?
Halep hasn't been on form for some months, there's a chance that she won't regain it by April. Niculescu is one of the biggest dangers in my opinion. I saw her defeat Kvitova in Luxembourg, or maybe I should rephrase that to: destroy Kvitova's game in Luxembourg. Her unorthodox style seems to throw so many; if she has a good run she'd be my big worry.
Konta v2.0 is still ~30% weaker on clay than any other surface - that though is based on the one clay season of v2.0.
That's also a measure of how high her play was in that period on grass, and, especially, hard courts.
Last 52 weeks:
Hard: 45-13 (78%)
Clay: 2-4 (33%)
Grass: 6-4 (60%)
The big threat on clay, and someone we'll probably under-estimate, is Begu, who is best on clay by some distance (13-6, 68% - which is ~+25% than other surfaces), and a very good player generally.
Her form in 2017 is bad, but it almost always is at the start of the year, and the clay gets her going.
Last year she played 5 tournaments on clay, and lost to some pretty good players:
QF in Charleston (lost to Kerber)
QF in Madrid (lost to Halep)
SF in Rome (lost to Serena)
R16 at Roland Garros (lost to Rogers - was injured)
R32 in Rabat lost to LL Hogenkamp ? not sure what was going on there!
Also lost in Fed Cup to Angie.
Thanks Phil. I've only just got round to reading your last couple of reports. I understand now what happened, I just couldn't understand Jo losing before reading them