Although as CD indicates Mirabelle doesn't seem to have really moved on this year she has been much better at converting QFs into SFs. From 6 QFs this year she has now made the SF 4 times. Last year it was 2 from 16.
All 16 of these at least QFs were from June onwards, great consistency and then I recall draws just never really seemed to open up for her, actually quite often getting the #1 seed in the QF. If that bad luck has evened itself out a bit this year that's good.
So in spite of everything these SFs have helped her to be a win away from getting back into the top 600 and taking out her CH 599. It would be her first final.
Hopefully at least these wins will help boost her confidence towards pushing on again with I do see 16 points from 8 QFs still to be defended this year.
SF: (4) Mirabelle Njoze WR 638 vs (6) Ana Bianca Mihaila (ROU) WR 611 (=CH) aged 19 ( she won the Sharm title last week and reached the final the previous week, and put out the #1 seed and Suzy Larkin's R1 conquerer, Perez Rojas, in the QF ).
At the end of 2014, I had Mirabelle spot on for last year (one of my only ones!) at a prediction of 600-650 for end-2015.
Last year I said that I thought she'd finish 2016 at 500-550.
She isn't really quite on target for that yet, it looks like being optimistic, but hopefully not too much so.
But, yes, I couldn't see her as a top-500 player for 2016 - she has a full counter list (and tons of extra tournaments to spare!), relatively easy tournaments at that, a very consistent result sheet but with no breakthrough results that show the way forward....
I expected her to consolidate where she was and push on a little - move more into the semis, make a final or three, nothing amazing, but steady and thus moving up 100 places or so.
It hasn't quite happened. Hopefully, it just a delay...
-- Edited by Coup Droit on Saturday 24th of September 2016 09:29:48 AM
No, as you say, the results are what the results are, hence the points, hence the ranking. No one can disagree with that.
I think what paulisi and I were saying is that we didn't expect her to be top 500 yet either. She made the huge move up last year, but that was from playing a full quota of relatively easy tournaments, and wasn't even making quarters on a regular basis (and never had a really exciting result).
So a solid base was there but it was difficult to see where the breakthrough jump up (as needed to get under 500) would come from. As said, I'd expected some progress this year, but nothing really major - it was difficult to see what would yield those extra 20-30 points, so I was expecting a more gradual linear move. (Which still might happen this year, cross fingers, but doesn't look very likely).
SF: (4) Mirabelle Njoze WR 638 vs (6) Ana Bianca Mihaila (ROU) WR 611 (=CH) aged 19 ( she won the Sharm title last week and reached the final the previous week, and put out the #1 seed and Suzy Larkin's R1 conquerer, Perez Rojas, in the QF ).
Not completely surprisingly given Indy's summary above, but Mirabelle lost 6-1 6-2