Realistically 12 with Azarenka not playing again for sometime...

It's been striking in the Women's draw how the top 16 or so seeds have almost all progressed through together for once. This means that the players Johanna is trying to catch and overtake have maintained their leads.
There is a gap though of over 470 points - roughly equivalent to winning a Premier title - after Jo & Bacsinszky, to Vinci & Kvitova in 15th & 16th, and over 700 points (about a GS SF's worth) to Vesnina in 19th. That's a big insurance policy. Even if Jo loses in R16, only one or two people can pass her here even if they make SF or better, and almost all those around her have more points to defend to seasons end. She's done a really good job of scoring regularly and topping up her account.
If Jo does win in R16, she'll go over 3,000 points. In the latest Serena era, 2012+, that has typically been the entry point to the top 10. It wouldn't be quite enough at the moment though. Serena is playing so few tournaments now, that she is no longer hoovering all of the points from all of the top events, meaning that there is all that surplus that she has been hoarding that is now available to be more freely dispersed amongst the rest of the field. As they have picked up those large totals, and with no one dominating in Serena fashion, points totals have gone up across the board in the Top ~20.
So, in that environment, Jo's prospective total, which would have been sufficient for much of the last 4 years, will fall just short of the Top 10.
The equation is still as simple as ever though, keep winning, you'll get there.

I have tried to calculate Jo's Singapore chances, and it's too unknowable.
However, I'm pretty sure that Jo has, at worst, qualified for the Zhuhai 'Elite Trophy' year end tournament, that was inaugurated last year, for 9-20 in the year end rankings. It's a $2M event and carries very large points rewards for very little tennis. Venus picked up 700 points last year for 4 matches (better per match than a GS).
As, by my calculation, Jo can't finish below 20th now, that would be a very nice potential fillip even if she doesn't quite squeak in to the Singapore field.

Well, I'd say the best guide to Jo's Singapore chances, especially so deep in the season is the 'Road to Singapore' rankings, ie the 'race' as to what has been accumulated to date.

Here in running she lies 10th although yes the 3 above her ( in current order Keys, Suarez Navarro and Ka Pliskova ) also remain in the US Open.

But she is so in touch that she could be into the top 8 as soon as after her next match, ie if she wins her L16 match ( if Suarez Navarro loses her L32 match and also Ka Pliskova loses either her L32 or L16 match ). Then beating Keys in a potential QF match would see to her for now, as well as taking her past Cibulkova, and possibly have her top 6 ( would certainly then be top 8 ).

Of course still plenty scope after the US Open to make up positions or hold position.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 3rd of September 2016 01:06:38 PM

Well, Naomi certainly gave Aga a whole world more trouble than Caro G just did.

It's a measure of how well the women's draw has held up that Jo's is the only R4 match without a top 8 seed (Jo can make up for this by playing like a top 8 seed as she did in the last round). 11 of the top 16 are still involved too.

Maybe just a coincidence, or maybe showing the difference in class between the top 16 and the next 16, not a single one of the 17-32 seeds remains in the draw. At 13, Jo is the second lowest remaining seed.

If Jo had drawn Sevastova in the first round, it wouldn't have been considered especially tough, so it's a nice 4th round draw. On the other hand, Sevastova has got to round 4 without dropping a set so must be playing very well. Scheduled to be first on Arthur Ashe stadium, which means both players have to deal with the strange atmosphere of an almost deserted 25,000 seater stadium at the start that might be quite full by the time they finish.

Eek not a good start from Johanna.

1-3*
Recovered from *0-40 in the last service game to hold.
Jo started all at sea, not much working at all; already more UE than the entire match against Bencic.
Sevastova clever, varied & patient.
Has very much the feel of the Kucova match in Montreal.