I'm not sure whether to be encouraged or discouraged by this. Both, I think is the answer. Naomi has now proved that her physical game matches up with the best , but that her head doesn't . (Where have we heard that before?).
Well onwards and upwards. I heard the commies on R5LSX saying that she should play some indoor tournaments to get her ranking up so that she can play the bigger tournaments. A good idea I think.
It must be pretty daunting for the first time to hold four set points against a top four player on a big stage. Heather got in a similar position against Serena and struggled to maintain her game. When Naomi has been in that position a few more times she should be better able to maintain her composure.
Really great match to watch, with a load of credit to both. I'd imagine that Aga fans tuniing in to see the servebot were very pleasantly surprised by the variety of angles, net approaches, sliding slices, lobs, etc.
This should go down as a very good tournament for Naomi. Her first win, in three attempts, at a Slam as a qualified MD player. She should now start to feel that she fully belongs at this level - and with the extra 70 points from here, she's almost certainly earned a place at the Australian Open, if she doesn't win another ranking point between now and December.
She played very well, notably in open play and when returning. If she's still defensively frail on the BH wing, Aga couldn't spot it.
A proviso; she served badly, especially on the big points and in the big games. She held set points on serve in the first set, and effectively gave Aga the match with repeated DFs at 3-4* in the second. I think she could really do with some time with JoKo's mental coach (couldn't we all?). For me, she's conspicuously bad at putting the last point behind her, ignoring the match score, etc. I am getting very good at calling her DFs before she hits a first serve. If she's got a 'reset button', she doesn't use it, or it's on the blink. If she were more of a servebot, she would have won this match.
Naomi has two big defences coming up, in Quebec (where she is playing) and Alberquerque (where she isn't).
If she can win a couple of rounds in Quebec to soften the drop of around 200 points across those two weeks and keep herself inside the top 100 (the win here is a help), she is set up nicely for the rest of the year. My thought would be to do the two indoor WTAs and then the two indoor French ITFs through October. The third ITF in Nantes has been cancelled, leaving a week's gap, before two big indoor challengers in Japan at the start of November.
That sort of schedule would play to her strengths, and if it goes well really consolidate ahead of the start of 2017 where she has big defences early on.
She's not down for the 100k indoor in Russia the week after Quebec, which I thought might be attractive, but she has played a fair amount of tennis so a solid 2-3 week training block between Quebec and Linz may be the plan, which would seem sensible.
I thought her post-match comments were a good sign, she's right that she's not serving quite as well as earlier in the year, but if she can work on that and play with the same clarity and consistency as she did against Aga, she can continue to really exceed expectations. It's been a wonderful 12 months.
Like you, PaulM, I take my hat off completely to Naomi.
She's most certainly exceeded all my expectations. And some.
And, indeed, most other people's expectations too, looking at Sim's tables (although those are year-end predictions and, as said, she's got some bit numbers to defend).
But, overall, just brilliant.
And I don't think she has any head problem - the way she closed out against Laura was great. Losing, from being up in the first set, against a top 3 player, is hardly unusual. I think one can find far more clear-cut examples of head-case players.
And her serve being just slightly off over the past few months may well be a consequence of working hard on the other aspects of her game (which she certainly has)
No, CD, (replying to a post2 above this...) I don't think she (Naomi) is a head-case choker. But I don't think she's good at putting the preceeding point/incident out of her mind; and I get the distinct impression that she serves worse if she falls behind in any particular service game, and thus feels under more pressure. Loads of occasions, if she wins the first point for 15-love, she holds to love and just looks unbreakable. But for somebody whose serve is such a weapon, Naomi drops serve a lot - because the errors flock together.
JoKo, otoh, seems to me to have developed the ability to focus on each individual point, without reference to either the preceeding point, or the match score.
-- Edited by wimdledont on Friday 2nd of September 2016 06:50:48 PM
Started to look slightly hot, I feared, in that last game.
Generally, this is not a taxing encounter. She's winning most points either on the serve itself, or on her return; from 2-3, I think she might have picked up a further 2 games while only hitting the ball 8 times.