Davis Cup 2016 World Group Semi Final - GB v Argentina - 16th to 18th September

indiana · Tennis legend

Davis Cup 2016 World Group Semi Final - GB v Argentina - 16th to 18th September

Smudge226 · Strong Club Player

All good points, the dilemma for the Argies is that their 'banker rubber', doesn't come until rubber 5, Delpo v GB#2. They will be worried that they could have been beaten before rubber 5.

I think Delbonis is clearly best Argentina have other than Delpo and I think Argentina still have a good chance against our #2, it will be very tight in both opening day rubbers, really it could be 2nil either way..

I think Argentina will be forced to play Delpo all 3days, similar to Andy for GB and with both top players exhausted on day3, these final rubbers become more open.

I'm guessing Kyle gets the nod on day1.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

skibbarriz wrote:
I have to feel that how Dan and Kyle match up when playing each other isn't the most relevant thing when determining who is the best candidate for a tie. Considering Kyle did so well in the last tie and got rave reviews, I can't see the case to drop him. Because while the challenge for a place from Evo is strong, it's not clearly stronger.

But the bigger picture is it's fantastic we can have such conversations around British Davis Cup selection and the positivity the progression of these players gives to British tennis. These are heady times, unlike anything that's been seen for decades.

Yes. How Kyle and Dan play against each other isn't a key issue, in my view.

Post US-Open minor injuries/niggles will, however, be an important factor, and one that we won't know about (unless anyone's on the inside).

JonH · All-time great

As an aside, I was interested in home advantage in Davis cup
On a positive note, over past 4 years, in 60 world group ties, 41 have been won by the home team, so 67 percent.

Strangely this season, 4 out of 12 have been won at home, 33 percent. Taking past 5 seasons together 45 of 72 have been won at home, so 60 percent.

I guess we should expect that but maybe it gives hope that there is typically a home team advantage in place through choice of surface, crowd support etc. Not sure if those stats reflected over a longer period?

RJA · Hall of fame

Coup Droit wrote:
skibbarriz wrote:
I have to feel that how Dan and Kyle match up when playing each other isn't the most relevant thing when determining who is the best candidate for a tie. Considering Kyle did so well in the last tie and got rave reviews, I can't see the case to drop him. Because while the challenge for a place from Evo is strong, it's not clearly stronger.

But the bigger picture is it's fantastic we can have such conversations around British Davis Cup selection and the positivity the progression of these players gives to British tennis. These are heady times, unlike anything that's been seen for decades.

Yes. How Kyle and Dan play against each other isn't a key issue, in my view.
Post US-Open minor injuries/niggles will, however, be an important factor, and one that we won't know about (unless anyone's on the inside).

Perhaps even more important is that having been with them this week Leon might feel that one of them isn't quite over the US Open, not back to full mental sharpness and not quite as raring to go as would be ideal. I think he will put far more weight on factors like that than head to head , who has the highest ranking, who played the last tie or who went furthest at the US Open.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes. That's what I meant really by post-US niggles, not just physical things, but you expressed it much better.

Five-set big-event tennis takes it out of players, both physically and mentally. And now to just switch it on again, so soon .... it's not easy.

Topemp · Strong Club Player

Smudge226 wrote:
All good points, the dilemma for the Argies is that their 'banker rubber', doesn't come until rubber 5, Delpo v GB#2. They will be worried that they could have been beaten before rubber 5.

I think Delbonis is clearly best Argentina have other than Delpo and I think Argentina still have a good chance against our #2, it will be very tight in both opening day rubbers, really it could be 2nil either way..

I think Argentina will be forced to play Delpo all 3days, similar to Andy for GB and with both top players exhausted on day3, these final rubbers become more open.

I'm guessing Kyle gets the nod on day1.

If Argentina picked Del Potro and Mayer on first day, That way their 'banker' is on 1st day same as ours, DelPo v GB #2 and Andy v Mayer and they might think they'd end the 1st day at 1-1. then its best of 3. Andy v Delpo and bring Delbonis in to play GB#2 on Sunday

-- Edited by Topemp on Wednesday 14th of September 2016 11:40:41 AM

Rustie · Junior player

Don't forget Delbonis beat Murray on hard court this year.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes indeed, with that that the biggest factor of all could be just how they appear to shape up this week. Didn't Dan have an apparently minor foot issue at the US Open? So how's that been? Just how are both looking physically, mentally as well as having retained their form?

indiana · Tennis legend

Rustie wrote:
Don't forget Delbonis beat Murray on hard court this year.

Ah, Andy loses his place in the Earth team to Delbonis then

Though yes, I certainly do think Delbonis is their best singles player for this tie other than Del Potro. He does have more hard court pedigree in general than Pella and clearly much more form than Mayer.

I expect him to be named #1 Argentinian for Friday with Del Potro #2 playing Andy - ie no 'games' from either side since I think it very questionable that any of these are clearly beneficial. Would mean two big matches on the first day.

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 14th of September 2016 12:23:34 PM

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Now we have chewed the fat, this is what I see happening. 4 possible outcomes, in order of likelihood.

Andy plays all three, Kyle on Friday, Jamie doubles, Dan on Sunday if the need arises.

Personally I think if we are going to win it the most likely outcome is through wins by Andy in his singles games and with Jamie in the doubles. Game 5 is a dead rubber we win 3-1

There is a chance Kyle will win on Friday and it's done and dusted by Saturday night. 3-0

Argentina win 3-1 game 5 dead rubber.

Possibility no4. I can see both Kyle and Dan having a role, neither has played much five set tennis, and should the battle of the number 2's (what unfortunate terminology!) be the significant game, having a fresh player on court for the final rubber (Dan) confers an advantage and we win.

Never in my life did I think that a game of tennis would induce more anxiety than Villa v Brentford

My god I feel slightly sick with nerves at the mere thought of the tie going to game 5, loosing game 5 is not something I can consider contemplating. The tension is almost unbelievable must be exactly how Jimmy Crankie used to feel on muttering those immortal words "I could crush a graape"

Jimmy09 · Intermediate Club Player

Im going to stick my neck out and say Evo, I think the court will suit him. In my opinion although Kyle did fantastically well in the last tie, that was on clay so not 100% relevant to this tie.

wolf · Tennis legend

I've attached a poll!

philwrig · Hall of fame

It's such a close call between Evo and Kyle that who looks best in practice would be my pick. Which player has bounced back best from their US open exploits ? And I certainly wouldn't lose sleep if I picked one ahead of the other, as both will rise to the occasion. Kyle has the most recent DC form, so might edge it, but only just. Not sure Kyle would match up well with Delpo, given that they have similar games, but at this stage Delpo has that little bit more. I think Evo may give him more problems with his slightly unorthodox all court game. But I would certainly pick both of them in my 4.

-- Edited by philwrig on Wednesday 14th of September 2016 02:44:13 PM

Smudge226 · Strong Club Player

Topemp wrote:
Smudge226 wrote:
All good points, the dilemma for the Argies is that their 'banker rubber', doesn't come until rubber 5, Delpo v GB#2. They could have been beaten before rubber 5.

I think Delbonis is clearly best Argentina have other than Delpo and I think Argentina still have a good chance against our #2, it will be very tight in these opening day rubbers, really it could be 2nil either way..

I think Argentina will be forced to play Delpo all 3days, similar to Aplayed nilB and with both top players exhausted on day3, these final rubbers become more open.

I'm guessing Kyle gets the nod on day1.

If Argentina picked Del Potro and Mayer on first day, That way their 'banker' is on 1st day same as ours, DelPo v GB #2 and Andy v Mayer and they might think they'd end the 1st day at 1-1. then its best of 3. Andy v Delpo and bring Delbonis in to play GB#2 on Sunday

-- Edited by Topemp on Wednesday 14th of September 2016 11:40:41 AM

Yes, I see good logic in this strategy for Argentina, you may have something here. They get out of day1 with a more than likely one-all scoreline. They might expect to lose to the Murray's and so not play Delpo in the dubs either. Better to rest him for the crunch 4th rubber. Let Pella and Mayer play dubs to rest their singles. Then all in on the final day as you say rather than doing this on day1 with Delpo as #2. Delpo would be fresh with say only having played potentially 3sets on day1 and Andy could have played 6-10sets on days1&2.

Delbonis is a cleaver player and he did manage to beat Andy but this was at Indian Wells I think, which is a notoriously slow hard court. From what I have seen the Glasgow court looks quicker than the USO. We do start favourites at home with a more favoured surface so they could choose to have Delpo dodge Andy on day1 and not risk losing the tie on the first day. They certainly have a Southpaw strategy option as you suggest.