Week 15 - Greece F4 ($10,000) - Heraklion (hard)

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Week 15 - Greece F4 ($10,000) - Heraklion (hard)

Spectator · All-time great

It's not just about rankings, is it. Alex Ward (whom I continue to think/hope will break 200 this year) had no junior ranking, as far as the ITF shows ... because he played almost no junior ITF tournaments. James Ward's career high combined was 1280. It's quite significant that both of them were based in Spain, where I would gather that there's far less emphasis on junior ranks and ITFs.

An interesting point, though, from Oakland - could you do a sort of "value added" for university tennis ... ie look at people of similar rankings who did/didn't take that route and compare their pro careers. Think it would be able to be argued that Ed Corrie may also have found benefits from his time in Texas.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

From a doubles perspective, I would add the Skupskis to that list as well. Didn't big Dom also go the college route ? Not sure on that one. Someone will correct me of course if I am wrong.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

In my view, junior rankings are fun while they last (with a nice clean cut-off date) and not much use after that. It all depends whether the country in question hosts events, funds players to go to events, has a decent alternative etc. etc. Although I sort of agree with kenneth's point, arguably the LTA should put on lots more British Tours and let the juniors play those. That would certainly be pretty much akin to the Spanish system.

On another note, some lovely photos of our silverware collectors in Greece:

www.facebook.com/sototennis/photos/a.186125618085648.44149.119078078123736/1141972572500943/

www.facebook.com/sototennis/photos/a.186125618085648.44149.119078078123736/1142352265796307/

Spectator · All-time great

Good points, BiS! And indeed, yes: Ken Skupski had a junior CH in singles of 133; Dom Inglot (University of Virginia) had a combined junior CH of 104 - would they fit your definition of cusp, Oakland?

On the subject of the impossibility of using junior rankings as a firm predictor of senior success given different people's emphases and stages of development: From a doubles perspective, Colin Fleming had an ITF junior ranking of 725 (singles)/735 (doubles); Neal Skupski doesn't even appear on the ITF juniors database; and Jonny Marray had no ITF ranking at all (only played the Q draw at one ITF tournament). Jamie Murray is the exception: he had a junior combined CH of 40, having won a number of singles tournaments (and some doubles - including some with Keith Meisner ... isn't he the person who's now a musician?) And some fellow called Rafael Nadal had a junior CH of 145 in singles ... well below the cut-off point for funding in many places.

-- Edited by Spectator on Monday 18th of April 2016 12:42:35 PM

Nix · Futures level

Thanks everyone. Really interesting responses. I'm particularly fascinated in how some players reach their potential much later than others and how they decide whether to keep persevering. Interesting points made.

RJA · Hall of fame

Just the other day I was looking back at the end of year rankings from 2011, i.e 4 and a bit years ago, and it was notable that of the top 20 only Dominic Thiem and Jiri Vesely have thus far made a successful transition to the ATP tour and that while a few of the others seem to be decent challenger level players none of them really look like taking the next step any time soon.

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Yes I think there was a bit of a hiatus, few juniors born before 1995 were capable of a rapid transition, this I think represented a couple of issues; increased professionalism across men's tennis with greater attention to detail impacted the age of players in the top 100 with players continuing to improve up to their mid twenties and able to extend their careers. Also it reflected the quality of juniors trying to make that transition, i.e. The present group of teenagers are much stronger and the depth chart deeper

Oakland2002 · All-time great

I accept their are 100 ways to skin a cat, but a sharp knife really helps. Given it is such a technical game, the age at which young players start it is unusual for the junior programme in the UK to miss a major talent (who is going to play tennis) and them not develop a junior rank. If you have an ITF rank less than 15 (for girls achieved at 16 and boys at 17) I would argue you have a very sharp knife, the final year of juniors or couple for the girls should be a pleasant distraction (selected grade 1 and slams) with the ITF pro tour the major focus.

Obviously there is no line in the sand and there are no certainties in life (OG) but things become less certain and support for transition harder to find the further you fall from my arbitrary line and the more attractive a college scholarship becomes. There are lots of opportunities, indeed really good ones for any junior with a junior ITF rank inside 400 at 18. That said there is a handful of very highly ranked players 15-40 going who impact college tennis nationally as Freshman (the on the cusp cohort). This group will undoubtedly have a crack at going pro and as mentioned earlier are already capable of winning futures events while in college and this for example is where Cam sits as does Emily starting 2016.

Looking at the present cohort of players entering or entered college tennis in 2016, realistically 2/16 boys and 3/17 girls are admitted to programmes that given their recent history would give them an opportunity to play consistently strong opposition, practice with high quality team mates and significantly grow their game. i.e. gain added value that may if they can become one of the top 15-20 college players in the US. Then they may have a go full time on the main tour and make decent ITF progress.

Lloyd has done superbly well to progress as he has, I think he may have missed some junior tennis at 16-18 through injury and perhaps entered college tennis a little under ranked with more potential for development than most. That is where I think there is definitely added value and the potential to make a living on tour. I think you still have to have the potential to have been an on the cusp player. In that respect it was such a shame for Evan H that he missed the opportunity because of the NCAA regulations as he may have had even more to gain.

-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Tuesday 19th of April 2016 09:09:25 AM