Week 8 - WTA Premier ($2.5M) - Doha, Qatar - Hard

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

RE: Week 8 - WTA Premier ($2.5M) - Doha, Qatar - Hard

Long time reader · Lower Club Player

Just to add to Kundalini's stats I watched Naomi's match with Kichenok in Maui and there was 1 break each in the first set. She got broken early and broke back a few games later.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

The other perks

Very pretty:

www.instagram.com/p/BCD9f8Iv7oJ/

indiana · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
The other perks

Very pretty:

www.instagram.com/p/BCD9f8Iv7oJ/

Fitzy : "Is that it?"

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I stumbled across a site that seems to have the required info. www.tennisbetsite.com/tournaments/wta/2016/01/25/maui.html

Midland: Jaksic match additional stats that were missing - Naomi BPs saved 1/3 - return Naomi total return points won 30/72 42% BPs taken 4/6

Maui: McHale - Naomi serve 48 - 74/44 8 aces 5 dfs BPs saved 6/12 - return Naomi total return points won 41/99 41% BPs taken 6/13

Cako - Naomi serve 57 - 77/36 17 aces 8 dfs BPs saved 3/6 - return Naomi total return points won 37/82 45% BPs taken 5/7

Linette - Naomi serve 56 - 76/48 5 aces 8 dfs BPs saved 6/8 - return Naomi total return points won 39/103 38% BPs taken 3/14

Kichenok - Naomi serve 50 84/61 15 aces 7 dfs BPs saved 1/2 - return Naomi total return points won 27/71 38% BPs taken 2/6

--

Pretty clear that even in such a good start to the season, first serve percentage, 2nd serve points won and dfs are all somewhat problematic, though also an indication that Naomi can be competitive with decent players despite not performing at her very peak.

The comprehensive nature of her defeat against Vesnina seems to me to be down to the vulnerable aspects of Naomi's game, all under-performing at the same time. No impact on return after Vesnina's opening service game and a poor serving performance. Having said that, Vesnina has just beaten Caroline Garcia, who reached the semi in Dubai, in straight sets so perhaps she is performing way above her level of the last 12 months.

-- Edited by kundalini on Monday 22nd of February 2016 02:32:27 PM

brendan · Strong Club Player

just saw that Vesnina beat Garcia in straight sets - maybe for Naomi it was just an unfortunate case like Dan last week of meeting a player who was in form at just the right time

indiana · Tennis legend

brendan wrote:
just saw that Vesnina beat Garcia in straight sets - maybe for Naomi it was just an unfortunate case like Dan last week of meeting a player who was in form at just the right time

Well, it seems pretty clear thar Naomi was below par too as indicated in above posts.

But yes it always looked a simple 'tennis' defeat with a possibly fairly on song Vesnina meeting a fairly off song Naomi.

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 22nd of February 2016 03:03:06 PM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

brendan wrote:
just saw that Vesnina beat Garcia in straight sets - maybe for Naomi it was just an unfortunate case like Dan last week of meeting a player who was in form at just the right time

I didn't follow this match. But you may well be right. I think what sometimes is forgotten is that the stats can be a REFLECTION of the opponent.

i.e. if Naomi's(or anyone's) first serve stats were dreadful, does that mean she was below par, having an off-day etc? Not necessarily really. It might be that the opponent attacks the serve beautifully for the first game, and this rattles Naomi, who then thinks has to go for a bit too much, and starts missing by inches, and isn't really serving any worse in and of itself, but is just being forced to play slightly outside of her comfort zone. It's not the same as someone having a mare on their serve, just as one of those days, or being hampered by a niggle.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

OK, before I go any further, could someone just test that they can see this, as Tableau have changed the way the shared server works, so I need to know others can see the current version.
Just, can you see this: https://public.tableau.com/profile/insomniacfolder#!/vizhome/NaomiBroadyYTD2016/NaomiBroady2016YTD

You should be able to hover over any bar to see the tool tips.
If someone could please confirm that they can see it, I'll go ahead and finish up the rest of the presentation.
Thanks.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I can see it.

Your first serve percentages are wrong for WTA tour events. I think one of the sites you use, doesn't include dfs thus pushing the first serve percentage higher than it should be. For instance, in Doha, Naomi's first serve percentage was 47% in her first match and 51% against Vesnina. The only WTA match in which your stats match mine is Ana Ivanovic, in which Naomi had 0 dfs.

-- Edited by kundalini on Monday 22nd of February 2016 03:55:58 PM

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

Great, thanks, I'll carry on then.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I suspect you need to take a closer look at the dfs in the WTA matches (Aus Open and ITFs are fine), as they are having a negative impact on your otherwise impressive work. Looks to me as though 2nd serve percentage won is of 2nd serves landed, rather than total attempted (including dfs). Similarly, first serve percentage isn't including dfs in the total.

For example Ostapenko match. Naomi first serve percentage was 57% she won 71/38 with 21 aces 8 dfs. You've got 61% and her winning 71/45

-- Edited by kundalini on Monday 22nd of February 2016 04:12:57 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

Coup Droit wrote:
brendan wrote:
just saw that Vesnina beat Garcia in straight sets - maybe for Naomi it was just an unfortunate case like Dan last week of meeting a player who was in form at just the right time

I didn't follow this match. But you may well be right. I think what sometimes is forgotten is that the stats can be a REFLECTION of the opponent.
i.e. if Naomi's(or anyone's) first serve stats were dreadful, does that mean she was below par, having an off-day etc? Not necessarily really. It might be that the opponent attacks the serve beautifully for the first game, and this rattles Naomi, who then thinks has to go for a bit too much, and starts missing by inches, and isn't really serving any worse in and of itself, but is just being forced to play slightly outside of her comfort zone. It's not the same as someone having a mare on their serve, just as one of those days, or being hampered by a niggle.

I think that often gets forgotten, that serving stats are heavily influenced by how well the opponent is returning. I noticed that when I was in Eilat and you guys were trying to interpret a match just by analysing the stats. It was particularly obvious in Katies match with Bonaventure when Bonaventure couldn't return for her life in set 2, but was very very good in set 3, when to all intents and purposes Katie served just as well in set 3 than she did in set 2. It's a match between 2 people, and the stats don't as yet analyse how well the 1st and 2nd serves were returned.

indiana · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
brendan wrote:
just saw that Vesnina beat Garcia in straight sets - maybe for Naomi it was just an unfortunate case like Dan last week of meeting a player who was in form at just the right time

I didn't follow this match. But you may well be right. I think what sometimes is forgotten is that the stats can be a REFLECTION of the opponent.
i.e. if Naomi's(or anyone's) first serve stats were dreadful, does that mean she was below par, having an off-day etc? Not necessarily really. It might be that the opponent attacks the serve beautifully for the first game, and this rattles Naomi, who then thinks has to go for a bit too much, and starts missing by inches, and isn't really serving any worse in and of itself, but is just being forced to play slightly outside of her comfort zone. It's not the same as someone having a mare on their serve, just as one of those days, or being hampered by a niggle.

I do rather have difficulty with the concept of Naomi first serving as normal and Vesnina actually attacking it and thus Naomi going for "more" .

Naomi's first serve, on song, doesn't get attacked by Vesnina or most players and they can be fairly thankful to get it back No, every indication that there was much more than Vesnina involved in Naomi's serve stats.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I know what you mean and I'm not arguing the other side in this match 100% but a couple of the matches I saw on the streams recently (of non-Brits) had exactly that sort of profile. i.e. no one can attack Naomi's serve when it's full on, but if she serves a poorish first game (quite possible), and the opponent attacks those serves really really well, it can then destabilise the server so now she starts serving worse although it's due to the opponent, really, and not her.