Week 8 - WTA Premier ($2.5M) - Doha, Qatar - Hard

DF · Tennis legend

RE: Week 8 - WTA Premier ($2.5M) - Doha, Qatar - Hard

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

Dangnabbit! To illustrate this I'm gonna have to do another chart now!
Data collecting mode - ENGAGE!

wimdledont · Challenger level

As well as Naomi's serve being sub-prime, her return stats make it look like Vesnina was consistently brilliant. I doubt it was a just bad day at the office.

Anyway, I have several voodoo dolls to attend to...

DavidC · Tennis legend

I've watched Vesnina a few times over the years, and she has always struck me as a streaky player who likes pace and shortish points, so it is easy to imagine that this match-up would have suited her, if she was having a good day.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

insomniacfolder wrote:
Dangnabbit! To illustrate this I'm gonna have to do another chart now!
Data collecting mode - ENGAGE!

Hmm, unfortunately, the ITF live scores app doesn't retain the data for stats after a few days.
You can still see the scores in the past, but all that detail for the various matches and stats reverts to zeroes.
This is a great shame, and seems strange; I can't think of a reason not to keep that data archived after it has been generated.

Neither of my usual sites:

https://matchstat.com/tennis/
http://www.tennisabstract.com/

Have the data for these matches.

If anyone knows a site that harvests the ITF stats at all, I'd be very pleased to hear about it

Therefore, I can't find the stats for Naomi's matches in Maui or Midland, and this skews the results too much. It only represents Auckland, AO & Doha - it's only 8 out of the 18 matches she's played this calendar year.

And it was all looking so promising

cwej · Lower Club Player

I agree that it's silly to label her loss as her probably having a 'niggle'. Why can't it just be that another player played better than her on the day? I play the same opponent every week - he's better than me but I've beaten him on occasions and on other occasions like this weekend he beat me 6-2 6-0. Did I have a niggle? Not at all! My brain went into STOP PLAYING BADLY territory and capitulated. I think Broady is the sort of player more likely to break down mentally than most as well.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

What stats are you after ?

I have some on sheets of paper which I tend to throw out after a while. And there are some I could calculate from my point by point analysis of those matches I watched. For instance, return and break point stats. Not found Maui so I suspect I got rid of those. Do have Midland.

Naomi Midland first serve percentage - first serve won %/ second serve won %

55 - 84/71 (first round)
49 - 90/42 (Jaksic)
55 - 84/49 18 aces/55 first serves landed 3 dfs (Madison Brengle)
56 - 79/50
61 - 74/51 15 aces 6 dfs (final against Robin Anderson)

Off the top of my head, Naomi's serving figures in 2015 haven't seemed that good, with the exception of Ana Ivanovic match and I think the first round of qualifying in Auckland. Double faults seem higher than you might expect given she only rarely goes for her 2nd serve.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:25:09 PM

vohor · Grand Slam Champion

Re: cwej's last remark

I prefer to think of Naomi as mercurial smile
She does seem to get over her bad spells more quickly now; but the higher she goes up the rankings the less forgiving the outcomes are likely to be if she goes walkabout for a while.

The way she outplayed Brengle at Midland tells us Naomi won't be out of her depth in these bigger tournaments

-- Edited by vohor on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:20:25 PM

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

kundalini wrote:
What stats are you after ?

I have some on sheets of paper which I tend to throw out after a while.

Naomi Midland first serve percentage - first serve won/ second serve won

55 - 84/71 (first round)
49 - 90/42 (Jaksic)
55 - 84/49 18 aces/55 first serves landed 3 dfs (Madison Brengle)
56 - 79/50
61 - 74/51 15 aces 6 dfs (final against Robin Anderson)
Off the top of my head, Naomi's serving figures in 2015 haven't seemed that good, with the exception of Ana Ivanovic match and I think the first round of qualifying in Auckland. Double faults seem higher than you might expect given she only rarely goes for her 2nd serve.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:12:03 PM

Thanks for this
For the WTA & GS matches, I built a model using:

Event
Tour
Level
Round
Surface
Opponent
Opp Country
NB Rank
Opp Rank
Score
Win/Loss
1st In %
Aces
DF
1st Won %
2nd Won %
BP
BP Won
BP Won %
Return won %
BP against
BP saved
Save %

Which anecdotally shows that, contrary to expectation, it's actually the quality of Naomi's return game, that better correlates to success, even on poor serving days.
But, I'd need similar data from all the 2016 ITF matches to make it a useful conclusion or a representative tool. Was very surprised and disappointed that such is not stored.
I think I'll start taking screen dumps of GB players matches shortly after completion.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Do you want aces and dfs as totals ? Or divided by number of first serves, number of 2nd serves ?

Wait a few mins and I'll calculate what I've got from my raw analysis. Almost certainly some stats will be missing; seem to recall that the Jaksic match wasn't screened so all I have is serve figures already mentioned.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:29:31 PM

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

kundalini wrote:
Do you want aces and dfs as totals ? Or divided by number of first serves, number of 2nd serves ?
Wait a few mins and I'll calculate what I've got from my raw analysis. Almost certainly some stats will be missing; seem to recall that the Jaksic match wasn't screened so all I have is serve figures already mentioned.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:29:31 PM

For Aces & DF, just a raw number, please.
I see them as a supplemental slice, an additional indicator that only really play a role in excessive quantity - such as the 14 Aces and 0 DF against Ivanovic in Auckland, that's a factor!

indiana · Tennis legend

insomniacfolder wrote:
kundalini wrote:
Do you want aces and dfs as totals ? Or divided by number of first serves, number of 2nd serves ?
Wait a few mins and I'll calculate what I've got from my raw analysis. Almost certainly some stats will be missing; seem to recall that the Jaksic match wasn't screened so all I have is serve figures already mentioned.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 03:29:31 PM
For Aces & DF, just a raw number, please.
I see them as a supplemental slice, an additional indicator that only really play a role in excessive quantity - such as the 14 Aces and 0 DF against Ivanovic in Auckland, that's a factor!

I suspect that Auckland match was really down to Ivanovic having a niggle

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Gibbs - Naomi serve 55 - 84/71 18 aces 4 dfs BPs saved 2/2 100% - Naomi return 33%/27% total return won 22/72 31% BPs taken 1/1 100%

Jaksic - Naomi serve stats 49 - 90/42 9 aces 7 dfs broken twice overall

Brengle - Naomi serve 55 - 84/49 18 aces 3 dfs BPs saved 7/9 - Naomi return total points won 48/118 41% BPS taken 4/12 33% ( a degree of uncertainty here as stream failed for a few points between 30-0 and 40-A in one game)

Rogers - Naomi serve 56 - 79/50 9 aces 4 dfs BPs saved 0/2 0% - Naomi return total points won 31/67 46% BPs taken 4/6 67%

Anderson - Naomi serve 61 - 74/51 15 aces 6 dfs BPs saved 5/6 - Naomi return total points won 50/106 47% BPs taken 6/14

(apologies for any errors)

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 05:28:32 PM

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

Thanks very much, kundalini, this is great!

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

My previous post has now been updated to include all the relevant stats I have. I must have thrown out the pieces of paper with analysis of Linette, Cako and McHale matches from Maui. I did watch those matches and the 2nd set of Naomi's first match.

The thread on here has a few stats from Maui. Kichenok match 14 aces 7 dfs. 2nd set Naomi took 1/2 bps. Didn't face any bps in that set. Not sure if there were any breaks in the opening set which she took on a tiebreak. Linette match opening set Naomi's first serve percentage was 41% and she had 5 dfs in that set.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 21st of February 2016 06:10:10 PM