What a thoroughly excellent second half of the year this has been for Lloyd. Ever since graduating he has upset seedings and really claimed some great victories. Imagine what he might do with an entire year of tournament action under his belt in 2016?
Although Lloyd and Evan have done really well, you have to remember that a lot of successes came in the latter end of the season in some of the weaker tournaments. I'm not knocking them as a I'm delighted their success, but the next level to break into the top 350 and stay there will be tricky. Several top players such as Marcus Willis, Alex Ward are struggling to get passed that level.
I'm a big fan of both (although have only seen Lloyd play on livestream).
But there's a big difference in the maths of their predicted rankings (although it may prove to be immaterial, of course).
Lloyd's ranking is quite clearly false.
He played zero counting tournaments in the first half of the year; his first event was in July.
Now, the first six months might be slightly harder in level, as paulisi says, but it's a small difference.
So his ranking points so far are only based on 5 1/2 months of events.
Thus, you have to pro-rata them up to get a reflection of what his true ranking is.
(Now, it won't be a one-for-one correlation - leaving aside unpredicatabilities such as injuries, it might be that he now tries higher events and it's harder, or that he can't keep up the momentum on a full-year basis. Of course, it could be the other way too, in that he's learning the 'trade' of the ITF tour and therefore getting better and better, on a relative basis.).
But anyone who is using a 12-month ranking based on 6-month of results is obviously under-ranked. Nothing to do with 'getting better', 'making progress', or 'being on an upward trend' - it's just wrong.
However, Evan has played a full year. And, yes, he may have had some leftover injury problems. Or whatever. But that's normal. And he's clearly hit a lovely run of form, and long may it continue.
But his ranking is a 12-month one, and therefore a true one, and any improvements in it will be due to him having to play better (or keep playing as well as he is now, and not return to how he was playing 6 months ago). Unlike Lloyd.