I don't have an exact formula, but I always think speed of progression is the best indicator of probable ultimate level of tennis.  Once a player is full time on the tour (regardless of what age they start), if they spend more than 12-18 months at any given level (injuries aside) be it 10k, 25k, 250k, then that is probably their regular ceiling, even if they have the odd good result from a higher event in the mix.  Those who end up with better rankings do tend to whizz through the lowest couple of levels of tournaments.

Regarding Mirabelle it is an extraordinarily steady progression of results.  She's a very focussed and determined young lady and I wish her all the best.  We should also remember that, choosing to follow her own path in tennis, she hasn't had the benefit of the wild cards afforded to Freya, Emily A, Harriet, Anna B, the Katie's, and Izzy (esp those in 25Ks which award a point for turning up) and which have afforded them match experience at a level which Mirabelle is only now sampling due to her earlier efforts in qualies.

paulisi wrote:

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My rule of thumb for the women is that if you can get to the final twice of a 10K or a semi final of a 25K with a back up in a 10K, then you have the potential to break into the top 500.

Emily Arbuthnott is on the verge of achieving this rule if she wins tomorrow.

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Yes, but this doesn't take age into consideration. Or game.

As women peak and achieve their Career Highs (on average) at around age 26 or 27, then Mirabelle - at age 18 and WR 600 - is statistically practically a certainty to be top 500.

Someone age 30 with the same results card would have a different outlook.

Equally, a year ago Freya very clearly had the potential to be top 500. But didn't have the results you're talking about. Jodie is the same (assuming the operation goes well and isn't too serious).

 

However, being top 500 is not much of an achievement and, as posted above, it's the ease and speed of achieving it that gives some (stress 'some') indication of how likely they are to be top 300, and top

100.  As such, Emily Arbuthnott has certainly posted some really encouraging results.

 

Again, as was talked about a lot in summer, one of the key encouraging thing about her results are not the results themselves but the fact that she has achieved them whilst still being in full-time school

until very recently and playing other sports (I can absolutely see Emily as a super little netball player).

The Optimist wrote:

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1.  What's happened to Jodie?

2.  Emily's actually a super little lacrosse player.

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Seemingly she was injured after the Junior Fed Cup outing in Spain and has to have some op (don't know what).

(I know the injury's not their fault as such but, frankly, that whole Fed Cup thing was a bit of a disaster........)

The interview I read from Em talked about her loving netball - but can just see her being a brilliant lacrosse player too - fast, nippy, strong, fit, good ball skills...

Netball too!! She's even more multi-talented than I realised.  Strong academically too, I believe.

Interesting isn't it. Not many women progress on to the top echelons of the professional game via the college route but the opportunities open to Emily if she really is that academic and an elite lacrosse player as a two sport elite athlete at somewhere like Stanford (although Duke would be a better fit if she really is that good at Lacrosse) make going to the right college a very strong option.

Her tennis probably puts her at a level where she would be very well looked after academically and the option to walk on at the very least in a second sport too good to miss and very much encouraged and facilitated at Stanford. Not saying they are ten a penny but to be considered a two sport athlete there takes a bit more than playing a couple of sports for the school more a question of dominating state championships. As an institution the Olympic medal hall of alumni compares favourably with a mid sized European country (2012 Australia or Yorkshire)

Two of their best recent professional athletes were duel sport with Tyler Gaffney being drafted by the Pirates (baseball) coming back to play football and then getting picked up as a running back in the NFL. Toby Gehart was even more impressive playing full baseball seasons forgoing the baseball draft coming second in the Heisman trophy ( best college footballer nationally!) and then getting drafted in the second round to the Minnesota Vikings, he did a difficult degree and was being tutored and examined individually in the days running upto the Heisman presentation a national event with saturated media coverage following the candidates around town in the run up, or Toby's case a bit more limited and a sorry I've got some tests to do.

Thinking on a slightly different level though to have a few very good but academic tennis players who are committed to tennis going to somewhere like Stanford doing a full degree and then potential try the tour would if they were to comeback potentially give them an excellent all round tennis and business education which could bring a new level of professionalism to UKs tennis administration. The most powerful women in the NFL who grew up emersed in football as Mr Jones daughter (Dallas Cowboys) did just that and is now a major contributor to what remains a VERY fiscally sound family business. Lots and lots of options!

Although born in 97, Emily's birthday is late in the year and so she is in the same academic year as the bulk of the 98s, that is currently in the final year of A levels.  So I'm pretty certain she hasn't left school yet.  She seems to cope with her competitive schedule and academic demands by being incredibly organised - she's the kid who you find in a quiet corner at a tournament getting on with schoolwork.  I've heard rumours that she is looking to go to an Ivy League school, but no idea how accurate this is.  Whether she ultimately decides to go straight onto the tour, I'm certain she will fully investigate the uni route and I'm equally sure the recruiters will fall over themselves to have her.

Is she playing in Tunisia?