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Post Info TOPIC: The standard and depth of tennis across the world


Tennis legend

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The standard and depth of tennis across the world


Is it just me or does there seem to be a drop in the standard and depth in the world game?

Let me provide some examples starting with the women's game and no disrespect to the players mentioned - these are just examples, I can find many more.

Other than Serena Williams, the top 20 women are very much of a muchness and the likes of Venus having stumbled down to 50 in the world have climbed to 13. In fact Sharapova has hardly played for sometime and is still no.3

Going slightly further down, the likes of Jo Konta and Anett Kontaveitt have risen rapidly through the rankings. Similarly Naomi Broady. 

I can even mention that Jodie Burrage absolutely destroyed a Chinese girl just outside the top 100 for a set at Ilkley.

There are 18 suprisegirls now in the top 500 and plenty more following

If you look a bit further down, it is very easy for average players to pick up ranking points and reasonable players to jump up the rankings. So someone like Laura Deigman or Beth Askew climbing to 600-700 fairlyeasily by clever tournament selection.

Into the men's game and once you get past the big four, the rest are much of a muchness. The likes of Bedene and Edmund have been able to climb through the rankings fairly easily as did James Ward until July.

The challenger circuit seems very even, such that players like Josh Milton are now finding winning matches at this level and Dan Evans can walk back into challenger level after half a dozen tournaments and be very competitive.

Even further down, the likes Of Evan, JWH winning 10ks was very much of a suprise

Like I said earlier, I'm not belittling any of the players mentioned, just that the depth and standard may be lower than previous years and now may be the best time for players to progress.

Thoughts?



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County player

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More boring, perhaps. An almost total lack of variety in the women's game - all baseline bashing - and the men not too far behind. Power plus the double hander has killed adventurous net play. It's reduced to a mopping up tactic.

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All-time great

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It's interesting but I feel the reverse, the players are much better conditioned physically and technically, they can then be more patient, play longer points, wait for their opponent to make a mistake, take an attritional approach all of which may if your a thrills and spills man appear boring.

It is also reflected on the men's side in that talent alone is not enough to allow a young player immediate access to the top 30, where teenagers are as common as rocking horse manure. The guys that get there are at their peak in terms of experience, physical fitness and emotional intelligence, we are living in fantastic times where no slam is a gimme yet the standard fantastic with Novak number 1 but still vulnerable to Rodge (who must be the best player the modern game has seen), Andy, Stan and maybe even Rafa. Kevin Anderson is probably the best really big man to play the game ie serve alone is not enough to dominate the best of the best, he has some mobility and an around game close to the best in the next tier.

The different tiers of ability is fascinating seeing the odd player transcend a cohort rapidly, others battle for years until they themselves reach their own peak and finally step up, the steady progress of juniors purely due to maturation and those frustrated by subtle imperfections.

I think it's a bit like wine tasting which for me is a bit like the kings new clothes once you get to a certain point, but others would say that is where the fun begins and I have no palate.

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ATP qualifying

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Largely agree with Oakland.  I don't think the standard is overall any lower than previous years, but there is certainly less variety in playing styles.  In fact, as Oakland says, I think, due to the longevity of playing careers these days, the standard at the top end is higher than ever, although (Miss Williams jnr aside) there is less than ever between them.  I don't have too much knowledge of the ATP ranking system, currently or historically, but with the women it has always been relatively easy to get to 500-600 by playing a full schedule and picking weaker tournaments (clearly assuming a certain standard of player in the first place).

Personally, think tennis at the moment is just great!!



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All-time great

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Certainly, as far as GB is concerned, far more of the younger players are in full time education until 21/22 (see also the long list of those at US colleges). Even if you qualify from college without a mountain of debt, it cannot be enticing to spend 2-3 years and a big pile of cash playing in ITF before you can even start to actually earn money.

In other sports you can earn a reasonable living without being a household name. In tennis only the top 100 or so can do this - and then thay have to cover their expenses. Unless you have the talent to get to the top very quickly, professional tennis must always be a difficult choice.



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You can only earn a living in other sports because people will pay for the entertainment you provide and I for one spend much more watching football even though passionate about tennis. A lot of the money generated on the ATP tour and at slams is around a passion for attending a very desirable social event rather than being passionate about the game itself. This is reflected in its media coverage, intense for two weeks and getting honourable mentions when there is success, but otherwise a paragraph.

The college system and the money that funds it is a happy accident for tennis players funded by better athletes playing high quality sport for nothing.

Given this background the continued advances in every aspect the top players have made is admirable, UK players who make a serious impression on elite junior tennis do get opportunities to progress but I agree unless you are outside the best 10 juniors in the world at 17 turning pro as a teenager is a courageous choice which makes the achievements of the likes of James Ward truly remarkable.

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I agree with you, sort of, paulisi.

That is, I do think that the standard outside the top few is very flat - there really isn't much between a lot of the players - and certainly not on any given day (i.e. there may be over 20 matches (and even then not much), but there certainly is not in any one match).

That's why I've always said that I think nearly all our players have the potential to make top 500 (down, Bob, down ).

(Although making top 500 is not an economic goal and so many way well drop out before they do so)

And also think that rankings from 800, say, upwards are immaterial.

But I'm not sure that this is new. Or reflects a drop in standard.

No academic or scientific data to back it up, but I've always noticed (over the past 10 years say) that there's been a lot of French players (of quite average ability) who've managed to get up the rankings quite quickly, thanks to some nice home tournaments, a lot of club tennis, a few good wins here and there etc. etc.

I don;t know if the British players didn't managed to do the same, for any specific reason, or if maybe you're right and the standard has dropped.

But my gut feel is that it's not much different and that maybe the GB players have just learnt to be a bit more international and less dependent on the LTA (no credit to the LTA here, it was their fault that they were so badly set up before and now, just throwing in the towel, is no way to get any credit for any eventual improvement).

So, yes, good luck to them all - for whatever reason, make the most of it, guys.







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Just to jump back on an old thread, I think the rankings can be split into several categories.

In fact the women's game is even easier to categorise at present:

1. top 10 - it might not even be that many now... Dominate the game i.e Serena, Sharapova
2. GS ranked - 10 -40 - good enough to stay at this level, but not good enough to break into the top 10 - i,e Sloane Stevens, Pliskova
3. mid ranked - 41- 120 - very interchangeable, winning at WTA events, but struggling to do it consistently - i.e Heather, Brengle, McHale
4. 120 -280 - Regular ITF challenger players 25K +
5. 281 -500 - successful on the 10K circuit, but struggling to step up - i.e Dunne, Dart
6 500 -750 - reasonably successful on 10K circuit, but not winning regularly - i.e Stephenson, Brown, Deigman
7 751+ - the also rans - capable of picking up occasional points, but not regularly i.e Drew, Sills, Hurst

There are opportunities to jump out of the brackets and injuries and youngster often skew the data, but I think most players fall into certain categories - (some are on potential due to age)

For GB:
1 - no -one yet
2. Konta
3. Watson, Broady, Robson*
4. Moore, Swan
5. Dunne, Dart, Boulter, Christie, Webley-Smith, Carreras, Njoze, Lumsden, Taylor, Arbuthnott, Whybourn,
6. Stephenson, Deigman, Brogan, Brown, Appleton, Foster, Silva*
7. Drew, Askew, Asghar, Sills, Hurst, Gibson, Konotopseva, Bamburac,


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Tennis legend

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Interesting, and well considered groupings.

Just 3 off my 20 women in the top 500 on those projections

Can see logic in them all, be great ( if maybe unlikely ) that they all make it. Now c'mon Category 6! ( Appleton in time, Brogan and Silva maybe the best bets, but noone clearly mising from the top 500 ) and EWS, you hang in there.

The above 32 names are our current 33 ranked players plus Boulter ( who I think in time may be the best of Category 5 and go beyond it ) minus our new Brit, Knezevic, and the retired Cavaday. 



-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 18th of February 2016 06:30:43 PM

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Improver

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It's surprising just how accurate these group descriptions are having followed the women's game for a while now. smile

I agree with the majority of where you placed our players, although I think putting Swan in group 4 is slightly premature. She hasn't really had the opportunity to play at that level yet & yes looking at her junior record you'd think she'd be a certain bet to get to that level and even higher but more often than not the jump to pros isn't as simple as that. Having almost completely put juniors behind her I'm intrigued to see how she gets on this year. Tara is a player who a couple of years ago I would've said is definitely group 4-worthy but since 2014 she's slowly regressed to the point now where she's almost stuck in a limbo-like state between 10Ks and 25Ks. It's been really sad to see as I for one thinks she has bags of potential to at the very least be a top 150 player. cry 

This highlights the main problem though - that there is a clear lack of depth between our top WTA players and our satellite players. Freya is showing some signs of being able to make the move to challengers at a competitive level, however again it's too early to say. Harriet and Katy seem to have stagnated but they're young and have time. Mandy on the other hand has been stuck around this level for years now and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Katie B's trajectory before she got injured looked as though it was heading towards the challengers. Fingers crossed she can get back to that kind of form. Not forgetting Eleanor Dean, again someone successful at 10Ks looking to move up until injuries got in her way. It'd be great to see Lisa getting back to winning challenger matches too. Sam Murray would've occupied a group 4 slot not too long ago, has she retired for good? Any news on Jade Windley too?

Eden was on the way up, making a 10K final and a SF as well as QFs on a regular basis before she got injured. It's coming up to a year now. hmm

I suppose you could argue that there should be a group 8, for players who are just trying to qualify to get into the main draw such as: Crouch, Covington, Dixon, Mullins, the Pitaks, Ghodrati, Nicholls etc. 





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Yes, I think it's a bit early to put Miss Swan in group 4.  She's made a great start in 10ks but at the moment she's a bit of an unknown quantity to most of her opponents.  Once she starts playing professional matches regularly, other players will get a chance to work out her strengths and weaknesses, particularly those above 10k level.  Whilst hoping she does just zoom straight through the various tournament levels, I just don't think that you can say a great start in 10Ks is going to automatically translate into good regular results at 25K upwards.



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Katie S was based on potential and what the other top juniors have done recently. We'll see in a few weeks when she plays the 25ks and the grass season.

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It's an excellent grouping, and interesting to categorise, but the problem for the LTA, say, is that it only reflects the current position and doesn't give much help going forward.

No one here (I believe) had JoKo in a Group 2 position as of last year, or before. She's made that leap and confirmed it but it wasn't in anyone's predictions (would be interesting to know what the LTA thought 5 years ago say, before they 'lost faith'). The same is probably true for Naomi.

Equally, I'm absolutely sure the LTA think that Katie Swan and Freya are most certainly not Group 4 and 5. They are definitely Group 2 or 3. But again, this is going forward and it depends on the timeframe.

Identifying players of the future is one of the hardest things to do (and, if you have a good system, not even that important). But for the LTA, without a system, it's crucial. I actually feel a bit sorry for them - but only teensy bit, and very fleetingly.

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Challenger level

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I disagree with the original premise, for the womens side at least.
The problem is, with such broad ranging assertions - the whole of the game through large horizontal and vertical slices - it takes so very long to say enough about each of them to reason a counter point.
Short of writing, at great length, a couple of hundred words about each statement and deconstructing them, providing the relevant evidence in each instance, it's nigh impossible to usefully progress the argument.
Even I, who sleep about 2 hours a day, don't have that time; at the moment! I may return inn future to tackle it though.

However, as just one example of one facet of one of the things stated, here is how it might look were I to begin to break it down, even a little bit:
"2. GS ranked - 10 -40 - good enough to stay at this level, but not good enough to break into the top 10 - i,e Sloane Stevens, Pliskova"
Firstly, Pliskova has been ranked in the top 10 already, for a total of 6 weeks to date.
You could argue that this is not 'a Top 10 player', what was meant was a player that gets there and stays there for a long period of time - okay, but that would be a misleading label then. Top 10 is Top 10, and that's what we should take it to mean. Karolina Pliskova, is one.
There is a useful gradation to be made about those sorts of players that are considered, by what ever measure, the 'top' players of their generation(s - careers being so prolonged now!), but that doesn't always correlate with Top 10 ranking, it's a smaller group than that, but it always has been, as far back as you look.
Furthermore, 10-40 in the women's game is far too broad a grouping (the groupings get exponentially broader the further you go down the rankings), there is a massive difference between WR40 and WR20. The points required are typically, in a fashion that has been sustained over time, approximately double those for WR20 that they are for WR40; for WR10 it's 50% again on top of that required for WR20. Even then within those bands there are always large hurdles internal to those groupings, where a big step of points is required to get you even a single place - 60 points might earn you 2 extra places atone end where 400 points would leave you stationary at the other.
Well, that's nice enough, the boundaries being arguable, or imprecise, or needing refinement. But, does that unravel at all the central thread? To some extent, yes it does because it is predicated on emphasising how few genuinely 'good' players there are, and that within broad groups, you can effectively pin players down in to one of them and they are that sort of player. If those groups don't really exist, or at very least have vastly different properties, boundaries and overlaps, then to all intents and purposes they cease to be useful.
The purposes of this grouping seems to be to show players just below the 'good' threshold, those that Ben Rothenberg & Courtney Nguyen insist on, infuriatingly, calling irrelevant - which reduces: to they won't win Grand Slams. Additionally, given the original premise - that standards have dropped compared to past times - that there are more of these players. Talented, but they will stay in this arbitrary grouping, and not make it into 'relevance' i.e. in to the Top 10.
Well, historically, that's not true either. In the first 40 years of the WTA, from 1973-2014, there were a grand total of 107 different players who at one time or another had a ranking somewhere in the top 10; Dominika Cibulkova was #108. That's 2 or 3 new names a year, over a long period of time; just 2 or 3. Roberta Vinci will, on Monday become #117. So in the last 2 years, that's 10 more. If I were to draw bad conclusions from a tiny sample size and a very unscientific method I could say that that's 5 a year, and so rates are increasing, massively. I won't say that, but you take the point. It is at least fair to say that rates are not declining. At least as many players are breaking in to the Top now, as ever, if not, more so.
What does that show? Perhaps it underlines the general point originally put forward: because there are fewer 'relevant' players now, of course it's easier to break in to the Top 10 - there's nothing of quality to beat to get there. Conversely it's equally arguable - and I would come down on this side, with many more hundreds of words (and charts!) if I had the time - that it's actually illustrating the substantial rises in quality throughout the women's game.
The standard is now so high, and finely honed, that just below the very elite (Williams, Azarenka, Sharapova, an on form Kvitova) it's more competitive than ever, and there is an increased churn in that set of players that makes it seem as though none of these players are consistent, whereas in fact it's indicative of the increased competitiveness. Players can now beat each other with a statistically relevant frequency, much further down the rankings than in previous generations. The progression of quality towards a common flat line standard, instead of a steep curve, does not speak to a lack of quality, rather, it speaks very forcibly for it.

Ok, well, Im still not done with even one example of one facet of one of the things stated, but I'll stop here, for now.
I'd need to do this for all of the statements in order to make my case sufficiently thoroughly, as a lot of the things overlap and reinforce the others. e.g. why is there a very elite few, and is it relevant even if there is, hasn't that always been the case?
So, hopefully you get the point I'm trying to make about the size of the undertaking, far an almost inevitably, at best, Pyrrhic victory.

Anyway, interesting stuff; my reading others views, that is, perhaps I could cure my own insomnia if I read through one more time what I've written!

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It is a generalisation - it is very easy to find examples that don't fit and people will move brackets due to progression, age, illness etc

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