On clay, Kyle must start as early favourite for selection. Will be interesting to see whether the Belgians opt for clay and risk Murray tactics.
The Belgians would be be clinically insane not to go for clay. They are underdogs whatever they do but on hard court I struggle to see a realistic scenario, other than injury, where Andy doesn't deliver 3 points. On clay there is an element of doubt.
Yes, I absolutely agree, RJA, and disagree with a previous point that I saw made that they should only consider what their own players most like / want.
I know mention has been made about the Americans opting for clay vs us and clearly thinking about Andy, but in the overall scheme of things I would call that simply err stupid. If they want to supposedly "learn" from the US, be my guest
To me this is probably mostly about rubber 4, Goffin vs Andy, since I see as being pretty bigger favourites for the Andy vs number 2 and doubles matches. On hard, Belgium almost certainly don't win that and don't win the tie.
My point about the Americans opting for clay being the most stupid captaincy decision ever (on the basis that would inconvenience Andy, despite having no clay court players themselves) does not in the slightest mean that Belgium should NOT opt for clay.
Quite the reverse.
My point was Belgium should opt for the clay IF their players want to play on clay - which they almost certainly do.
There's surely no way that Belgium will choose anything else, and quite right.
But that's because they like clay, and usually choose clay, and not because they think Andy will hate it (although it helps, of course, that it's not his favourite surface).
Which as mentioned would certainly make Kyle the favourite (if he wasn't already) for the No. 2 singles spot, and I would expect any competition for him to come from James, rather than Dan. Horses for courses, and I would actually not like to see Dan playing on clay for the sake of trying to get into the team for the final, and prefer him to focus on playing his own game on courts more suitable for him, and continuing his rise through the rankings.
I'd love to see James start to get a few wins on the board and give Kyle some genuine competition for that spot.
I know I'm in a minority with this opinion, but I'd still like Wardy to play. We wouldn't even be here if he hadn't beaten Isner/Querrey. Maybe l'm over loyal, but I like to reward people for what they've contributed in the past.
We have no pressure on the second rubber, so let Wardy play his last hurrah - he's beaten better ranked players than the Belgian's at DC in any case, whatever his performance since.
What does Andy Murray do now? If the ATP grant him an exemption won't this set a precedent, what happens if next year someone else wants the same exemption.
Its difficult for AM to now pull out of the WTF's with a "niggle" because he's already said he'd rather not play if the DC final is on clay. And if Chris Kermode gives him a pass won't this look like favouritism given he's from GB.
I don't know what the solution is here, I suspect AM will have to play and will only play one of the Masters events in the run-up and will skip Paris to get as much rest as possible.
In terms of the second singles place I don't see how Leon Smith can go with anyone but Kyle Edmund given his better clay court form and at least he has some experience playing in front of a partisan crowd at the French Open.
Precisely, RJA, pick the best player to win, except for parachuting in Aljaz if he wins his appeal, it's the ruddy Davis Cup Final !
We're hardly a given to stroll to a 3-1 lead ( or to have lost by then ), it's a nonsense. Cue Davis Cup deciding 5th rubber - I'd rather like us to win that if it came to it, and playing a Darcis on top of that, or any other "2nd" Belgian is just more pressure, because certainly winnable.
Thanks very much James for what you have previously done for the team, now prove you're the man for the final.
As I have said before, for me it looks like it should be Kyle as of now, but I'd say very foolhardy to try to be definitive still so far from the final.
-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 23rd of September 2015 01:07:10 PM
Usually the doubles rubber is the key, but they've got a very poor doubles pairing, if it wasn't on clay I would say we were dead certs to win that rubber, still think we are heavy favourites for that one.
For me Indie the only definitive is that Evo is highly unlikely to be chosen over either of those two on clay. Totally agree though, plenty of time for things to change, and to be honest whilst it's very good to hear Aljaz saying he thinks the others have earned it, if he was eligible he'd be going straight in for me, as he's without much doubt our strongest second to Andy on clay.
I don't think Andy will be getting any kind of exemption at the Tour Finals, and will have to play - which on the whole is dead right as it's the ATP's showpiece event and no player should be treated any differently to anyone else.
In terms of Aljaz Bedene that's such a tricky situation because on one hand this is GB's best chance in over 70 years to win it and if he came into the team GB would be overwhelming favourites for the tie however it might cause some bad feeling amongst the other members of the team.
Usually the doubles rubber is the key, but they've got a very poor doubles pairing, if it wasn't on clay I would say we were dead certs to win that rubber, still think we are heavy favourites for that one.
Yes, I'd say we are very likely to win the doubles with the 1 vs 1 being more the key this time and then still possibly the 2 vs 2. Especially so if Andy plays the doubles, which to me will not be obvious even if he is fully fit and as ready as can be.
Possibly almost a juggling of uncertain probabilties, how much would you add to the doubles, but take away from his second singles. The more you feel pretty sure Jamie & Dom would get the job done ( and that to me looks more likely than vs Australia ), the less I'd pick Andy. And overall clay for me just adds to the temptation to go without him in the doubles.
-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 23rd of September 2015 01:20:49 PM
Coppejeans and Bemelman beat Nestor and Shamasdin, so they can't be too shabby.
I think the Tour Final thing is desperately unfair - not just for Mr Murray, but more generally. It's fine if the two Davis Cup finalists both have people in the Finals, as would normally be the case (eg last year). But when you have a situation where one country does and one doesn't, it's an invitation to do precisely what Belgium are doing and clearly disadvantages the one side. I don't know what the answer is - but something really does need to be changed.
Coppejeans and Bemelman beat Nestor and Shamasdin, so they can't be too shabby.
I think the Tour Final thing is desperately unfair - not just for Mr Murray, but more generally. It's fine if the two Davis Cup finalists both have people in the Finals, as would normally be the case (eg last year). But when you have a situation where one country does and one doesn't, it's an invitation to do precisely what Belgium are doing and clearly disadvantages the one side. I don't know what the answer is - but something really does need to be changed.
Here's a thought...howsabout the Final being over two match-ups home and away?