Week 35 - US Open Singles Main Draw - Hard

Jan · Hall of fame

RE: Week 35 - US Open Singles Main Draw - Hard

nicofrance · Strong Club Player

Just how long are the coming back excuses going to be made for Laura, this was a mental meltdown. Vesnina was falling apart and at 4-0 Laura then decided to give her a boost. From there it was inevitable and added together with her McHale loss the problems are in her head not her game. Commentators keep saying she needs more matches but how do you get them when you keep choking and falling apart mentally.

She needs to drop into some small events where the opponents aren't good enough to take advantage of her mental frailty, get some wins and close out some matches and forget bigger events until shes built up some confidence.

-- Edited by nicofrance on Tuesday 1st of September 2015 06:40:25 PM

SMC1809 · All-time great

After being out for so long, I'm just glad she's back playing again. If after a year she's still losing then I'll worry.

PaulM · Tennis legend

100% mental. Couldn't close it out against a player who's in a total rut.

Gutted. Had it and just froze at the finish line

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Very disappointing performance. Completely went to pieces from 4-0. Landed 6 first serves out of 19 from that point. 4 dfs in 13 second serves (8 in 36 up to that stage). Even before that horrible spell, Laura's first serve was way below the pre-injury version; just doesn't look a weapon at all. Absolutely no confidence in her serve right now.

A few good ground-strokes every so often but a lot of overly safe rallies that let Vesnina take the initiative.

nicofrance · Strong Club Player

SMC1809 wrote:
After being out for so long, I'm just glad she's back playing again. If after a year she's still losing then I'll worry.

Theres nothing wrong with her game, she still has her weapons but mentally this is 2 matches in a row shes squandered. Her opponent was waving the white flag at 4-0 but Laura then fell to pieces. She won't get more matches if she keeps getting knocked out in R1.

Spectator · All-time great

Well, Ms Robson is no fool, and there are plenty of people who have an interest in seeing her do well. So she and they will doubtless work out next steps. The key thing is she has the capacity again to play at Tour level. That's good to see, even if it wasn't consistent in this match.

And hurrah for Ms Konta! So glad to see her get that 1st round win to put the seal on her qualifying.

indiana · Tennis legend

Laura gets more matches by yes now reverting to lower level ITFs, which is precisely what she is going to be doing

The injury setbacks that pushed her return back into the heart of the grass court season and then the other one a month or so ago have not helped her schedule of probably already having had much more progressive matches. The timings have kind of thrown her in at the deep end. Her general play though has progressed.

But of course this was hugely disappointing ( moreso than vs McHale because of the event ), she should have won it from that position, but also of course being out for so long and still having had relative few matches is effecting her more than it ever did previously at the business end.

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 1st of September 2015 08:39:00 PM

SMC1809 · All-time great

nicofrance wrote:
SMC1809 wrote:
After being out for so long, I'm just glad she's back playing again. If after a year she's still losing then I'll worry.
Theres nothing wrong with her game, she still has her weapons but mentally this is 2 matches in a row shes squandered. Her opponent was waving the white flag at 4-0 but Laura then fell to pieces. She won't get more matches if she keeps getting knocked out in R1.

You seem to have repeated your earlier comment, so in a simliar vein I'm just saying I don't care whether it's mental, physical or emotional, im just glad she's playing again.

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

Laura's serve is a problem in general play and of course that is only going to be exacerbated in nervy games at the end of the match. Basically the serve is just about getting her through most of the match and so any dip due to nerves is going to spell trouble. It wasn't like she was making lots of errors all over the place from 4-0 up, but she was constantly on the defensive from Vesnina attacking 70mph second serves that were mostly right in her hitting zone. I was thinking at 5-4 and 15-30 up she might get over the line but Vesnina closed that game out really well.

I can't see the serve immediately improving either, i think it will be a process over the next few months and hopefully by the start of next season she will have got at least back to how she was serving before the injury.

Her game has improved from Wimbledon, and now she needs to turn that into wins at the $25k level in Mexico.

Obviously disappointing that two matches in a row she has got close to a big win but hasn't managed it, and the 70 points would have come in handy.

-- Edited by tony_orient on Tuesday 1st of September 2015 07:12:15 PM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I'm with SMC1809.

Didn't see the match (have turned into a surrogate German tennis fan, having access to nothing but German Eurosport, which at least is free - and some blinkin' brillinat play by young Zverev, by the way).

But after SUCH a long absence, and some serious concerns we might not see her again, I'm thrilled to hear that she's out on the court, playing, close to winning, and (fingers crossed) in no pain. The rest will come. She's so young. No worries.

Priesty · Challenger level

I'm as frustrated as most but let's not forget that in a couple of months, having been out for 17, Laura has gone from a bakery scoreline against Gavrilova to coming within a whisker of beating Tour level players. The mental battles of closing out matches will be the hardest to win but I think if she can just get one, more and more will follow. Just a shame it couldn't have been today.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

So, how do we decide? What should the expectation be?
Well, one way could be to look at players who are of (verrrrry) broadly similar levels, who also had time out commensurate with Lauras, and look at how long it took them from when they started to play again until they got back to where they were, or thereabouts.
So, here's a selection:

Player	Time to regain ~Position	Notes
Petkovic	18 months
Zvonareva	36 months	*Still not yet got back into top 100
Kirilenko	13 months	*before declaring her pregnancy, never got back into top 100
Bacsinszky	30 months
Vaidisova	12 months	*still not yet back inside top 200
Robson	02 months	*still not back inside top 500

There are other examples, but these are all very good players who have surpassed anything Laura has achieved to date and who spent a long time out for injury or otherwise.
Players in this list approached the comeback in a variety of ways, from the PR/SR/WC dependance, to climbing back from $10K up.

Very Crude Conclusion: No matter the method, it's going to take time, and to talk about anything absolute or being a crucial juncture at this point seems demonstrably premature and probably says more about us than it does of Laura's potential or expectations.

PS: did I mention... JOKO!!!

Edit: had Vera's comment against Petko

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Tuesday 1st of September 2015 08:24:08 PM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Does anyone have service speed stats for Laura pre-injury ? Average first serve speed and fastest serve speed.

It looks to me as though her first serve speed is down significantly but I didn't keep a record.

First serve percentage was poor against Vesnina though df rate (25%) was down on recent matches (33% approx). During the US Open run when she beat Clijsters and Na Li, her df rate was 12% though it rose to about 16% during her strong autumn that year.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

kundalini wrote:
Does anyone have service speed stats for Laura pre-injury ? Average first serve speed and fastest serve speed.

It looks to me as though her first serve speed is down significantly but I didn't keep a record.

First serve percentage was poor against Vesnina though df rate (25%) was down on recent matches (33% approx). During the US Open run when she beat Clijsters and Na Li, her df rate was 12% though it rose to about 16% during her strong autumn that year.

You can look them up on a (select) match by match basis here
Set your search parameters, and then click the highlighted button in each case