General election/politics

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

General election/politics

indiana · Tennis legend

So Liz Truss has been saying that the ground should have been laid better for the tax cuts, that it was all the chancellor's ideas and not discussed in cabinet and it is already clear that she is simply not up to the job.

Oops sorry, she missed saying that last bit.

Worrying times.

christ · Futures level

If she manages to achieve a massive fall in the price of houses then she has achieved something really useful, even if she did it by accident.

Halving the price of houses would be a massive step to fighting inflation and making houses affordable for first-time buyers.

... not that it is something that any sane politician would have advocated.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

So, the proposed abolition of the 45% tax band didn't last long.....

This was inevitable given she'd never have got the Finance Bill through otherwise - which would have been calamatous.

Doesn't really change much but, politically, it's is a smart move/the easiest damage-limitation move

It's obviously the price that had to be paid - now, any Tory MP who votes against the Finance Bill will be expelled from the party (the bullying and fear tactics that the political parties use against their own diehard members is appalling).

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Financial Times not holding back.

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

The reality is that Truss does not have a growth plan. She has a growth plan a magical potion into which she sprinkles the reversal of recent tax increases, freedom for bankers bonuses and lower taxes for the prosperous, says abracadabra and suddenly trend productivity growth quadruples, conjuring 2.5 per cent annual growth.

the addict · Tennis legend

Liz Truss used the song "Moving on up" as she walked on for her introductory speech at the party conference - apparently she chose it herself. Couldn't have read the lyrics though.

"You've done me wrong, your time is up
You took a sip from the devil's cup
You broke my heart, there's no way back
Move right out of here, baby, go on pack your bags

Just who do you think you are?
Stop actin' like some kind of star
Just who do you think you are?
Take it like a man, baby, if that's what you are"

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

So Kwarteng has resigned/was pushed - is that the shortest chancellorship ever?

And the odds are still not far off favouring the iceberg lettuce over Liz Truss for longevity (see The Economist AND the Daily Star - in fact, when both those publications are running the same story, you know there's broad agreement

)

indiana · Tennis legend

Wow, she appoints Jeremy Hunt as the new Chancellor. That's a shift. The woman is a mess

Reports that senior Tories were already plotting as to how they could get Truss and the now gone chancellor out and Mordaunt and Sunak in.

That's the Mordaunt that so convinced MPs during the leadership campaign that Truss managed to convince them more to pass her into the final contest vs Sunak when the early odds were Mordaunt vs Sunak.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

paulisi wrote:
Very interesting read of Patrick Minford's thoughts on the economy in the Telegraph.

Effectively support for government plans
Inflation at peak and will fall quite quickly
Wholesale energy prices dropping very quickly and will reduce the forecasted spend on energy cap
Interest rates will rise, but not as high as markets predict(5%) more like 3%
Supply side economics is the way to create growth

Truss and Kwarteng's economic stance for many years has been to reduce deregulation, simplify the tax system and bring down the tax burden.

They have already started the process.Some may not agree with the policies as they are not always ethically fair, but they should generate growth.
The top rate tax band doesn't generate a huge amount of tax revenue and promotes tax avoidance schemes to avoid it.

Love the way that Minford has been all over the place recently, saying there wasn't anything wrong with his theories, it's all the Bank of England's fault, they 'should have stopped' the gilts rout - as though the mini-budget had nothing to do with it and the fact that the Chancellor/Truss/the team completely hadn't considered the regulations regarding pensions funds and how they have to be more collaterlised, becaue of margin calls, when gilts fell, was just one of those things, just one of life's little quirks that wasn't part of his remit

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, Minford been saying it would be madness for Truss to u-turn just because of a little market turbulence.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Yes, Minford been saying it would be madness for Truss to u-turn just because of a little market turbulence.

Which is why he's an economist (of sorts), not a politician

Even if his economics were right - which only his mother would support - trickle down theories having been de-bunked as, over the past 20 years, it seems (quelle surprise) that only a tiny bit trickles down, and a whole big chunk actually just goes straight off-shore into rich people's bank accounts

Shhh · Challenger level

indiana wrote:
Wow, she appoints Jeremy Hunt as the new Chancellor. That's a shift. The woman is a mess
Reports that senior Tories were already plotting as to how they could get Truss and the now gone chancellor out and Mordaunt and Sunak in.
That's the Mordaunt that so convinced MPs during the leadership campaign that Truss managed to convince them more to pass her into the final contest vs Sunak when the early odds were Mordaunt vs Sunak.

I read (dont know if it is true) that a poll amongst the Tory membership favoured Mordaunt and Badenoch as their leadership choices. The MP's gave them Sunak and Truss to vote for?

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

The current Tory parliamentary party and Government is a busted flush. They need change as much as we do as a country.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
indiana wrote:
Wow, she appoints Jeremy Hunt as the new Chancellor. That's a shift. The woman is a mess
Reports that senior Tories were already plotting as to how they could get Truss and the now gone chancellor out and Mordaunt and Sunak in.
That's the Mordaunt that so convinced MPs during the leadership campaign that Truss managed to convince them more to pass her into the final contest vs Sunak when the early odds were Mordaunt vs Sunak.
I read (dont know if it is true) that a poll amongst the Tory membership favoured Mordaunt and Badenoch as their leadership choices. The MP's gave them Sunak and Truss to vote for?

Yes, I read that too, for the start of the campaign

And then both Mordaunt and Kemi lost their lead, I think, as various thing went a bit wrong, and the members' poll a couple of weeks later had them all very close, with Truss ahead of Mordaunt by a little way

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/mordaunt-truss-and-badenoch-now-all-tied

Whichever which way, the poor party members either have to look to themselves, or the MPs, or the system, or whatever, and ask what went wrong - talk about shooting yourself in the foot.....

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Latest poll according to Election Maps UK gives:

Labour: 53%
Tories: 19%

twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1580648504510148609

Somewhere they have then extrapolated the results on a seat by seat basis. Can't see from this tweet - taken from the same thread - who has done the extrapolation, but the results are apocalyptic for the Tories.

Labour: 546 seats
Tories: 4 seats (four seats - that's not a typo)

twitter.com/georgejck/status/1580652048823246848