But how good were their junior careers really? Taking Luke as an example a CH of 22 sounds good but it is not as impressive when you look deeper. He did much better at doubles than singles, partnering the likes of Liam, Josh W-H, Kyle and Borna Coric and doubles formed a fair part of that ranking. The junior ranking system is very much geared to the high grade events. It is perfectly possible to be highly ranked winning a round or 2 in a lot of top events, only going deeper in the odd one here or there or by doing well in dubs. This profile matches Luke's junior career and indeed the careers of many of our top juniors. Luke was also physically very developed at a young age and strength as much as skill will have contributed to his wins, a factor which becomes less of an advantage as opponents mature.
Historically, the LTA has flown those juniors it funds around the world to every top grade event chasing junior points for as long as the kids are eligible to play. It is an expensive travel schedule which few other juniors worldwide have followed, but has generated plenty of good headlines for the LTA and justified the amount they have spent on these kids. In contrast, many other nationalities follow a broader schedule; some junior ITFs, some futures, local money tournaments and thus are lower ranked than their UK counterparts.
I would suggest that the problems our top juniors have transitioning is because they, in some cases, are not as 'top' as we and they think they are in global terms, simply having a falsely high junior ranking.
There are a lot of assumptions being made regarding Luke's progress and potential compared with others. Unlike Kyle and Liam, he and others have had to endure incessant dramatic changes imposed by the new LTA regime which have made the past eight months extremely difficult.
Analysing his junior career, he did gain significant points from doubles, but The Optimist's inference that this is any different to any of the other top juniors or that it was due to who he partnered are a little unfair to say the least. Ask any player on the circuit, Luke has always been a good doubles player and those players who played with him also gained ranking points. Singles-wise, he competed well against the top players, e.g. Luke Saville in R3 at Wimbledon 6-7 4-6. Those who really know Luke will know that he has a great understanding of the game, is probably more naturally talented than Kyle and works extremely hard. Sometimes all that is required is a little bit of luck. Let's hope for his and Britain's sake he gets a slice of it soon.
No, no DK. You have misinterpreted my post! I was not suggesting Luke's junior dubs success was down to his partners - just pointing out that his ranking contained a lot of dubs points. I mentioned the partners as they are all good players and presumably had something to do with the good results. Which is not the same thing as suggesting Luke had nothing to do with them! Presumably he would only have attracted such good partners if was seen as a good bet himself.
The point I was making was not that Luke won't have a decent career (sincerely hope he does) or that he is somehow inferior to our other players of similar age but that his junior ranking was flattering because of the schedule the LTA arranged and funded. Which means that his transition into seniors was probably likely to take rather longer than his junior ranking might have suggested; as has proved to be the case.
And my point was not about Luke in particular. As he was being discussed in this thread I was using him as an example of why I think our 'top' juniors so often struggle when they move to seniors; that is I think many of them, including Luke, leave the juniors with an inflated ranking and have a bigger gulf to cross than we,and perhaps they, realise.
However, looking at some of our current juniors, they seem to be following a different path and mixing in a few different types of event as they go eg Finn Bass doing the futures in the Middle East, Katie Swan playing in Sharm. If the LTA have changed their policy in this area, IMO it is to the good.
It appears the technical problems on No1 court have now hit centre court as well. Was hoping to watch Alex Ward in his doubles followed by Liam, but it looks like we are going to miss out again. The only good news is that Alex and partner are already *2-0 up.