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paulisi


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Will Katie Swan be junior no.1?
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There is a real chance Katie can push for Junior no.1 status

XU, Shilinup.gif+1pixel.gif CHN10 Jan 1998141102.50
 2BELLIS, Catherinedown.gif-1pixel.gif USA08 Apr 1999171042.50
 3SHYMANOVICH, Irynanomov.gif0pixel.gif BLR30 Jun 199722974.38
 4GALFI, Dalmanomov.gif0pixel.gif HUN13 Aug 199824927.50
 5VONDROUSOVA, Marketanomov.gif0pixel.gif CZE28 Jun 199925907.50
 6KASATKINA, Daryaup.gif+1pixel.gif RUS07 May 19977846.88
 7ARCONADA, Usue Maitanedown.gif-1pixel.gif USA28 Oct 199828826.25
 8SCHMIEDLOVA, Kristinanomov.gif0pixel.gif SVK06 Aug 199717823.13
 9RUSE, Elena Gabrielanomov.gif0pixel.gif ROU06 Nov 199722814.38
 10BOUZKOVA, Marieup.gif+1pixel.gif CZE21 Jul 19989790.00
 11KENIN, Sofiaup.gif+11pixel.gif USA14 Nov 199823780.00
 12MIHALIKOVA, Terezanomov.gif0pixel.gif SVK02 Jun 199829776.25
 13SWAN, Katienomov.gif0pixel.gif GBR24 Mar 199925765.00

 

These are the rankings as of today

Katie's doubles points are additional as she doesn't have a sixth counter and she has to defend final points this week. Other than that she has very little to defend until end August

Both Kenin and Arconada are at the Easter Bowl. Katie is due to meet Kenin in the semi final and will overtake her if she makes the final or Kenin fails to make the semi final. Arconada has nothing to defend for a long time and will be one of Katie main contenders

 Xu  - playing pro tour, but may take in GS - lots of points to defend around Wimbledon

 Bellis - playing pro tour now and Katie could pass her this week, if not mid May

Shymanovich - no longer playing juniors, Katie should pass her in mid May

Galfi  -playing pro tour, but may take in GS - not too much to defend until end of year

Vondrousova - not played since Australia, big points to defend next week and at French/Wimbledon

Kasatkina - playing pro tour - she will drop below Katie in Mid May

Schmeidlova - playing pro tour - lots of points to come off mid April

Ruse - not played juniors this year, French points will be enough for Katie to overtake

Bouzkova - not played juniors this year, points to come off mid June

Mihalikova - still playing Juniors, Katie should climb above her this week

 

So in reality if Katie has a decent French Open or Wimbledon she has a great chance of junior no.1 - Arconda or Kenin must be the main dangers unless someone comes through from lower down the rankings

However if you look at the list anyone in the top 10 or so over 16 has stepped up to play main tour tennis, so I assume this is the way Katie will go shortly, maybe just playing GS (i'm sure she will play a couple of $50Ks on grass in UK after French) 

 



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Mervatron


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Of course she has a chance but would need to win a couple of grade 1 events I would have thought. Plus a few decent doubles result. Could all come down to RG.

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goldfish


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Any others lower ranked who might also overtake?

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paulisi


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goldfish wrote:

Any others lower ranked who might also overtake?

 Claire Liu would be the obvious candidate. Seems to be picking up big titles at 14 and very little points to defend.



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paulisi


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Katie pick up an extra 30pts from the Easter bowl doubles, which will put her to 795pts and potentially into the top ten when the new rankings are issued tonight.

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philwrig


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She'll probably need to win a Junior GS, to get there. Would be nice though.



-- Edited by philwrig on Monday 13th of April 2015 11:35:03 AM

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paulisi


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1 XU, Shilin 0 CHN 10 Jan 1998 14 1102.50
2 SHYMANOVICH, Iryna +1 BLR 30 Jun 1997 22 974.38
3 GALFI, Dalma +1 HUN 13 Aug 1998 22 927.50
4 BELLIS, Catherine -2 USA 08 Apr 1999 15 915.00
5 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa 0 CZE 28 Jun 1999 25 907.50
6 KASATKINA, Darya 0 RUS 07 May 1997 7 846.88
7 ARCONADA, Usue Maitane 0 USA 28 Oct 1998 28 833.75
8 SCHMIEDLOVA, Kristina 0 SVK 06 Aug 1997 17 823.13
9 RUSE, Elena Gabriela 0 ROU 06 Nov 1997 20 813.13
10 SWAN, Katie +3 GBR 24 Mar 1999 25 795.00


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tharris


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Until she wins a title bigger than a grade 4, I can't see her getting to number 1. That being said, top 5 is more than possible.

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TheTraveller2


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I think she will get there. Any player who consistently puts herself in a position to win big events clearly has the drive, desire, talent and focus. She has made lots of grade one finals and one grade A final. I think she will break through sooner rather than later. It might be a technical tweak or a mental change that is required, but it will come. Only a few weeks ago her ability to compete at $10k level was being questioned and then she won her third event.

Look at this week. After having done nothing in doubles at the top level in juniors, she has won this week. What I saw of that tie break on Saturday suggested she was the one who stepped up and made the difference at the critical time.

Lots of things to work on I expect, but at only just 16, that is what you will inevitably have.



-- Edited by TheTraveller2 on Monday 13th of April 2015 02:26:27 PM



-- Edited by TheTraveller2 on Monday 13th of April 2015 02:45:57 PM

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paulisi


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I also think Katie will get there or very close.

Katie only has 5pts in doubles to defend and then nothing until mid Aug. Any positives from France or Wimbledon will push her further up the rankings (60pts singles and 20pts doubles to out score). I reckon she needs a net 100-120pts to get close to no.1 by mid Aug, so a couple of GS semi finals or better(that is where she will be seeded to reach)

Most of the girls above her no longer play juniors, so the main danger will be Arconada and anyone coming through the rankings who manages to win grade 1/grade A's

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Mervatron


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Arconada is over ranked due to weak south American clay events. I think we are more likely to see some younger 'star' come through.

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Britishtennisfan


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Love the balanced, positive contribution of TheTraveller2 rather than the negative "woeful" comments of tharris!!  I am sure Katie could play lower grade ITF tournaments and win titles but that would do nothing to develop her game or her determination to get better by competing against the best world juniors.  Sure she and her team know that there are lots of areas for her to work on but confident she can and will improve.  

 

 

 



-- Edited by Britishtennisfan on Monday 13th of April 2015 04:58:01 PM



-- Edited by Britishtennisfan on Monday 13th of April 2015 04:58:21 PM



-- Edited by Britishtennisfan on Monday 13th of April 2015 05:00:20 PM

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Mervatron


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I don't think he/she was being negative. Just stating a clear fact. She hasn't won a junior title above grade 4. And until she does she's unlikely to get to junior #1. They do state she can get to top 5.

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Oakland2002


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Katie is obviously an outstanding prospect possibly the second best of the 1999 cohort at the moment. Given that Bellis has already moved on I don't think I don't Getting to No1 per saye rates that highly, getting to a GS final at 15 is impressive enough, to win a singles or a doubles Junior GS would be a great experience and thrill for her which should help her in the future. The remaking three GS will be fun to watch, looking forward to having a couple of British girls to cheer for and watching Katie into the later stages.

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tharris


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Mervatron wrote:

I don't think he/she was being negative. Just stating a clear fact. She hasn't won a junior title above grade 4. And until she does she's unlikely to get to junior #1. They do state she can get to top 5.

 Thank you. I don't think I was being negative, but if that's how it came across, it was unintentional. Honestly I think Katie will win a bigger title this year. She's been so close to winning grade 1s in the past, but until then it's, at the very least, unusual for a contender for #1 not to have won a higher grade tournament.



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