Ocean has played 14 10ks, and performed spectacularly well. According to my calcs, she has acquired 55 ranking points in them over the last 4 years - sufficient, were they all within one year, to give her WR478 - certainly good to secure direct entry to more 10ks, but well short of what she'd need for DA at almost all higher-prize tournaments.
Should, in some alt universe, Ocean have won all of her 14 10k tourneys - W-L 70-0 (within the last year), she would have 14x12=168 ranking points, WR260. This would not entitle her to seeding in the qualifying in this week's sole European 25k...
The ITF, presumably with the commendable aim of spurring national associations to offer players enough prize money to eat, awards 4x as many points for 25ks, compared to 10ks - so that they can give their own promising players a leg-up, via WCs. Ocean has profited.
As you say, "You meet the same players you will find in 15, 25, 50, 100Ks and even ex top 100 pros." in 10ks. For much, much less rewards.
Katie is currently within 50 points of the Junior Top Ten. Were she in Brazil with Maia, she would be the 1 Seed (for the first time ever in any Junior tournament, AFAIK), and would make the top ten - and could thus hope for JE scheme by 31/12/15 - by making the semi-finals - win 4 matches. That gives her entry to 3 25k tournaments next year, without wildcards. To acquire direct acceptance to any 25ks next year via Sharm 10ks - win her remaining 10 tournaments - 1 match down, 49 to go - and if she gets to a W -L 50 -0 record, 120 ranking points = WR 313. Rarely good enough to get a 25k DA.
The point I am making here is that Ocean's rapid progress to top 150, bypassing most of the "top juniors" around her age group is the result of playing those senior matches and learning how to earn wins (i.e. earning points rather than being given them) whilst her peers were busy trying to be "top juniors". It's not about ranking points especially at Katie's age. It's about developing the game that will stand the test of time. Once you've got the game, you can very quickly progress through the ranking within a couple of months. Ocean is an excellent example of that. She moved from 10Ks to 25, 50, 75, 100, and AO with ease within six months or thereabout. Playing juniors for those who already have a decent standard and talent encourages the wrong type of mindset.
-- Edited by TennisLover on Thursday 19th of March 2015 07:26:25 AM
Bit like jogging on the spot, you get the exercise but don't go anywhere fast. Part of the problem is that the system works better for boys who mature later, there is little or no point in a 15 yr old boy playing senior tennis but the average top long term top 30 lady probably would have benefitted more.
The way in initially is through 10ks and then 15Ks etc ... Obviously there is little point in playing loads of 10ks if progressing through the tournament, its time to move into qualifiers at the next level. So the best players won't play many. Major junior tournaments where the level is consistently high and appropriate why not play them but its all about development, there are many junior stars everyone has forgotten about and it is really important to make sure that all ours get a good understanding of what they need to do to make it in the senior game early and prepare to do what's necessary.
Even though Katie was a break down in the 2nd set the bookies still had her at ridiculous odds to win the match. Clear what their expectations are.
Came through nicely in the end, winning the 2nd set 7-5.
Re all the interesting comments above about junior versus senior tennis as a path for youngsters, and the relative merits, I don't really have a firm opinion as to which is more successful, tennis wise, or strategy wise.
But I do agree with the points made that one of the problems in playing mainly (successful) junior tennis is that it's easy to become a little 'star', a little princess. And then the transition to seniors is very brutal (or can be).
And I think this is particularly dangerous is the UK because
(a) the media are always looking for the next little star/princess, as we don't have enough/hardly any current stars or princesses and so the pressure is on to find the next one and hype it up, and
(b) there's hardly any domestic tennis so although they're are a few top French juniors, who decide to focus on juniors, and who do get some hype etc., if you look at their full results sheets, they will still have played about 50% of their matches in the domestic leagues and tournaments. So they will have been beaten up by a good variety of very good adult players on a weekly basis, even if it's not in 10ks. This isn't available to UK youngsters and is a major problem so the importance of playing 10ks is probably way more so for them. But is, unfortunately, so much more visible than pure domestic tennis.
Needless to say a career best win (setting the bar nice and high as a starter) with maybe another one needed next as 4th seed Yashina RUS ranked 422 likely to be her QF opponent; she's taken the first set of her R2 6-1
Re all the interesting comments above about junior versus senior tennis as a path for youngsters, and the relative merits, I don't really have a firm opinion as to which is more successful, tennis wise, or strategy wise.
But I do agree with the points made that one of the problems in playing mainly (successful) junior tennis is that it's easy to become a little 'star', a little princess. And then the transition to seniors is very brutal (or can be).
And I think this is particularly dangerous is the UK because
(a) the media are always looking for the next little star/princess, as we don't have enough/hardly any current stars or princesses and so the pressure is on to find the next one and hype it up, and
(b) there's hardly any domestic tennis so although they're are a few top French juniors, who decide to focus on juniors, and who do get some hype etc., if you look at their full results sheets, they will still have played about 50% of their matches in the domestic leagues and tournaments. So they will have been beaten up by a good variety of very good adult players on a weekly basis, even if it's not in 10ks. This isn't available to UK youngsters and is a major problem so the importance of playing 10ks is probably way more so for them. But is, unfortunately, so much more visible than pure domestic tennis.
Good point about the little star transition to the brutal world of 10Ks. I always wondered if this was the problem with Oli Golding. I think what led me to this was reading the excruitating things written about him by his parents on first his acting website and then his tennis website. If you are constantly being told how wonderful you are, you may come to believe it and this can make it difficult when you face a few knock backs in later life. Much has been written about parents generally in building up their children's egos too much.
-- Edited by KK on Thursday 19th of March 2015 11:14:41 AM
L16: (Q) Katie Swan UNR beat (8) Prarthana G Thombare (IND) WR 491 (CH 335 last Aug) by 0 & 5
L16: Laura Deigman WR 857 lost to (7) Julia Terziyska (BUL) WR 490 (= CH) by 1 & 4
QF: (Q) Katie Swan UNR v (4) Ekaterina Yashina (RUS) WR 422 (CH 376 in 2012)
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
LOL while you're all busy debating the various merits of certain pathways, Katie bagelled a recent top 350 player.
Don't read too much in the bagelling. It shouldn't be of importance. Depends on where the other player's game has been recently, which based on recent results haven't been up to scratch. So outcome is not that surprising. Katie shouldn't be sidetracked by that but rather be pleased with holding on to the second set to see it through when the other girl put up a bit of a fight.
Yes, bagel sets are often not representative of anything and often part of a 'quirky' result, but every player loves dishing 'em out!! Well done Katie.