He's had two disappointing defeats, one with presumable minimal rest and possible jet lag.
I think it's a little bit early to start getting concerned. Whilst his start to this season has been pretty underwhelming (DC aside!), it's clear that he's been playing some much higher ranked players and asides from his last couple of performances, seems to have fared fairly well, if not getting the results. Needs to start winning again soon though, but hopefully he'll get back on track before long.
Well yes he has had 3 disappointing defeats in as many weeks but James has always been like this. We know that he has a fairly high upper level but he has never maintained it on a consistent basis. The idea that something is "happening" to him is silly.
Just been looking at his record on the main tour since the beginning of 2010 (not including qualifying)
He has only won 12 matches in the 4 years 3 months of that time (8 of which were in this country, 4 of which came at the same event - Queens 2011) so he has won only 4 outside this country. He would have undoubtedly received a wc into the tournaments in this country, which had he be made to qualify, his record may well look even less impressive. His only win on the main tour this year was against the might of Antonio Veic (Ranked 228). Davis Cup - different story of course.
Though I am with these who say that last year James was more consistent than ever before.
He certainly was re his consistent ranking points scoring and I believe he was re opponents won and more particularly lost to, and has seemingly lately regressed again in that area.
I intend to analyse his wins and losses in recent years, at least against rankings, and will report back, including if I'm wrong
Hopefully he'll get back on track next week, should be seeded for the Le Gosier challenger.
He was 10th on the original entry list but Lu and Dustov has withdrawn and chances are at least a couple of other players above him might end still be in Miami so will have to withdraw as well. There could be a couple of high ranking players given wild cards but the chances of James being seeded look very high.
Though I am with these who say that last year James was more consistent than ever before.
He certainly was re his consistent ranking points scoring and I believe he was re opponents won and more particularly lost to, and has seemingly lately regressed again in that area.
I intend to analyse his wins and losses in recent years, at least against rankings, and will report back, including if I'm wrong
Agree Indy he was generally more consistent last year but only at the level that he normally plays at (Challenger) though of course that he did manage to qualify for the French Open outside of beating Querrey in the DC and the odd decent win. I am a bit inclined to agree with another poster who another thread commented that his rise is also partly (not all of course) due to canny tournament selection and soft fields/opposition. I also noticed that 7 of his victories in 2014 came as a result of a W/O or opponents retiring hurt which also helped (even if only a little) so I think there has been a bit of luck involved but having said that a lot of players need luck from time to time.
I don't think anybody can question James' 2014 in terms of consistency:
- 2 Challenger finals
- 2 Masters main draws (albeit 1 as a LL)
- DC win over Querrey
- Qualifying for the French
- Multiple top 100 wins (Querrey, Kamke, GGL, Paul HM off the top of my head, as well as 'The Kokk' who's had a great start to 2015.
Yes he has had some luck in terms of weak fields although he was probably due some after an injury hit few years (2012 was it?).
I still firmly believe that James has the ability to get into the top 100 and to stay there.
OK, as promised / threatened figures re James ranking wins and losses since 2012 :
2012 :
vs top 100 : Won 1, Lost 6 ( win was vs Andujar )
101 to 200 : Won 4, Lost 5
201 to 300 : Won 4, Lost 7
301 plus : Won 11, Lost 5 ( included 3 plus 400 losses to Brezac, Kendrick and King-Turner )
Total : Won 20, Lost 23 ( season ended early due to injury )
2013 :
vs top 100 : Won 1, Lost 5 ( win was vs Tursunov DC )
101 to 200 : Won 9, Lost 11
201 to 300 : Won 10, Lost 6
301 plus : Won 18, Lost 7 ( included 3 plus 400 losses to Amritraj, Lemke and Guccione )
Total : Won 38, Lost 29
2014 :
vs top 100 : Won 9, Lost 16 ( wins were vs Rola x2, Kamke x2, Querrey (DC), Gabashvili, Ebden, Mathieu, Garcia-Lopez )
101 to 200 : Won 11, Lost 12
201 to 300 : Won 12, Lost 3
301 plus : Won 14, Lost 3 ( included 2 plus 400 losses to Ginepri and Petzschner )
Total : Won 46, Lost 34
2015 :
vs top.100 : Won 1, Lost 5 ( win was vs Isner DC and includes rather harshly ret loss to Young DC )
101 to 200 : Won 1, Lost 2 ( loses were to Huta Galung and Buchanan in Miami, both outside top 150 )
201 to 300 : Won 2, Lost 0
301 plus : Won 2, Lost 1 ( loss was to Zverev in Indian Wells )
Total : Won 6, Lost 8
2014 certainly looks more consistent for avoiding plus 300 ranked losses as I expected, but probably rather more significant ( highlighted by LouieG before my count ) were all these top 100 wins. so I guess James just enjoyed his best year all round and thus nearly made the top 100.
2015 has not actually been that bad so far for number of really 'bad' ranking losses with only the one against Zverev being against a player outside the top 200, but two of his three worst defeats have come since the Davis Cup so hopefully he can get back to at least 2014 general levels asap.
Walkovers excluded ( as maybe should the Davis Cup Young ( gotta catch a flight ) defeat, and I have done my best re accuracy.
Thanks Indy, makes interesting reading. Nice to kow his w/l in the top 100 bracket has improved significantly - so he can do it. Unfortunately he's got to get his 100-200 up to get there , and that seems to be his worse scenario, and he's mostly got to play these players without any atmosphere.
Good luck to him in the next challenger.
Yes, Helen, against the 101 to 200 range James has never in that period come out in profit and he needs to be doing that for a top 100 player. At least it is the 101 to 150 range that was the bigger issue in 2014 ( up to 300 I did actually have splits per 50 ).
For 2014, 101 to 150 : W 5, L 9. 151 to 200 : W 6, L 3. Total : W 11, L12
Verging on the top 100 was maybe actually more than could be expected with that overall record and I think you have spotted well the 'problem' area. 'Big' wins have improved, but not really that important 101 to 200 range, which to an extent backs up what RJA was saying. Dammit :)