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Post Info TOPIC: Will Andy qualify for the WTF 2014?


Grand Slam Champion

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Will Andy qualify for the WTF 2014?


I was trying to figure out Andy's chances. As far as I know he's playing a 250 now and has a 500 and 1000 to come. Is this correct, or has he got more tournies to play too? Below is the scenario according to http://live-tennis.eu/race. For me it's not looking too hopeful

Pos.Player NameCtryPtsMovedCurrent TournamentPrevious TournamentsNext PtsMax Pts
  
 
 1 Novak DjokovicSRB8150-----
 
 2 Roger FedererSUI7020-----
 
 3 Rafael NadalESP6645-----
 
 4 Stan WawrinkaSUI4795-----
 
  World Tour Finals Qualification Cut 4715     
 
 5 Marin CilicCRO4000-----
 
 6 Kei NishikoriJPN3675-Kuala Lumpur QF-36853845
 
 7 David FerrerESP3535--Lost in Shenzhen R16--
 
 8 Tomas BerdychCZE3510-----
 
 9 Milos RaonicCAN3425-----
 
 10 Grigor DimitrovBUL3335-----
 
 11 Andy MurrayGBR3200-Shenzhen QF-32453405


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There's not a static "cut" is there, Helen40? It's a question of who the top eight are. So if mr Murray starts to overhaul a few of the people in the 7 to 10 spaces, he could be in with a chance. That's a big "If," of course, given that they're all good players. He'd have to do very well indeed in the remaining tournaments, and hope that some of them didn't.

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I suspect the cut is the level at which the player could not be caught, so would definitely go through, but that there is still the possibility with less points.

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Helen, there are TWO Masters 1000 to come, Shanghai and Paris Bercy. He will have to do well at all of them, and pray the ones just above him (and just behind him) don't. That's if he really wants to qualify; a short while ago he said it wasn't a priority, but taking the 2 wild cards to the 250 and 500 makes it look as though he may have changed his mind.

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Doesn't Cilic go through anyway for winning in New York?



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Yes.

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Madeline wrote:

Helen, there are TWO Masters 1000 to come, Shanghai and Paris Bercy. He will have to do well at all of them, and pray the ones just above him (and just behind him) don't. That's if he really wants to qualify; a short while ago he said it wasn't a priority, but taking the 2 wild cards to the 250 and 500 makes it look as though he may have changed his mind.


 

I wouldn't say he had to do well in all of them. It all rather depends how well he does in any of them. For instance, one masters title and 1000 points for that ( OK maybe unlikely as of now ), would make a heck of a difference and might well be enough in itself.

It's really relatively tight ahead iof Andy. At the start of Shenzhen, Berdych in 8th was only 355 ( 3510 - 3155 ) ahead of Andy in 11th, is now in running 265 points ahead and if Andy wins the title here and earns 250 points he will be up to 10th, just 105 points out of 8th place.

There is though a gap behind Andy. Tsonga in 12th place started the week 505 points behind Andy is now 595 points behind.



-- Edited by indiana on Friday 26th of September 2014 02:14:48 PM

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Helen40 wrote:

I suspect the cut is the level at which the player could not be caught, so would definitely go through, but that there is still the possibility with less points.


 

Yes, 4715 points is the level at which a player would be guaranteed qualification for the WTF in all scenarios ( and assuming that the ATP have done their sums right ). In practice, players will be qualifyinjg with a lot less than that. 

It's simply a currently quite tight race for the three remaining places, since as has been said Cilic will effectively qualify on account of his US Open win.

That, of course assumes the top 5 do turn up ( how are things, Rafa ? ) 



-- Edited by indiana on Friday 26th of September 2014 02:12:00 PM

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I've just had a look at the ranking page (above), and I would expect the 'max points' for the top guys to be the current points plus 500. But this doesn't seem to be the case. Please can someone shed some light on this.

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It will be do with some, at this stage of the season, having already got a full quota of non Grand Slam / Masters counters so if they score 500 next week they will knock another score out.

I just had a look at the Duracell Bunny, David Ferrer, since he can usually be relied on to play the necessary amount of tournaments and then some, and that's what's going on for him.

For the top guys, their final 18 counters for the year ( excluding the WTF ) are made up of a compulsory 4 Grand Slam counters, compulsory 8 ATP 1000 Masters and 6 others ( there are certain other conditions, and Monte Carlo counts as a 500 in this regard, but that's the main split ).

Currently Ferrer's race points ( 3535 ) are from 16 tournaments ( 4 Grand Slams, 6 ATP Master 1000s and 6 others ). Essentially, he has a full "others" quota ( 360, 360, 250, 180, 90 and 90 ). So if he scores 500 points ( or indeed anything in excess of 90 ) that score will replace one of the 90s in his total race points. eg. if he scores 500, he will move to 3535 + 410 ( 500 - 90 ) = 3945 points.

Essentially, players will be able to simply add the points from the two remaining ATP 1000 Masters compulsory counters ( Shanghai and Paris ), but for "lesser" tournaments, particularly late in the season, the best 6 "other" rule comes into play.

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Thanks Indy, I'd forgotten about that rule, and more importantly that it applied for the race as well as the rankings. So Andy's got a better chance than I initially thought

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Actually, Helen, I have just had a closer look at Andy's updated race score of 3405 points, and it would appear that after Shenzhen he also now has his full quota of 6 others. So he too cannot add a full 500 next week, but just 480 since his lowest counter is 20. So Andy certainly has more scope than say David Ferrer, but he can't add the full 500 to his race score as live-tennis.eu suggests ( it does get it wrong sometimes ).

Andy's race score of 3405 points :

1800 from 4 Grand Slams ( 720 + 360 + 360 + 360 )
900 from 6 ( so far ) Master 1000s ( 180 + 180 + 180 + 180 + 90 +90 )
705 from 6 others ( 250 + 180 + 145 + 90 + 20 + 20 )

If Andy wins the ATP 500 in Beijing, his race score should move up to :

3405 + 480 ( 500- 20 ) = 3885 points.

( Andy's ranking points score is 3365, because he is still carrying two mandatory zeros from last year, so can only count 4 positive "others" for that for now, so is his race score less the two 20s )

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Ferrer was dumped out of Tokyo in the first round today, so he will most likely fall out of the top 8 I believe.

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Oh dear, how sad, never mind :)

Current race positions ( top 5 will qualify for the WTF, Cilic for winning the US Open )

6 Nishikori 3845 - IN TOKYO L32
7 Ferrer 3535 - OUT TOKYO
8 Berdych 3510 - IN BEIJING L32
9 Raonic 3440 - IN TOKYO L32
10 Murray 3405 - IN BEIJING L32
11 Dimitrov 3335 - IN BEIJING L32

This thread now probably the best one to use for the specific race to WTF 2014 rather than the "Battle for the top" thread.

PS : the live-tennis.eu site now agrees that Andy's maximum after Beijing ( if he wins the title ) is 3885 points.

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Ferrer is doing his best to help the Murray cause so far (though there's a long way to go). Another useful thing is the Raonic draw - pretty grim: Tomic, Melzer or ERV, and Tsonga. All a bit hot-and-cold players, but ...

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