Scottish Referendum

philwrig · Hall of fame

RE: Scottish Referendum

indiana · Tennis legend

It's a while since the polls showed the NOs having a majority when you include the undecideds. And actually to go from over 50% to under 50% seems rather a contradiction of what "decided" should mean.

Been worried about all the heavyweight late interventions ( quite easily conveyed as "panic" that might backfire, and Gordon (whi's generally pretty well respected in Scotland ) I'd actually be rather less worried about than some.

Also the banks and quite a lot if business have very belatedly been coming out with some hometruths. I can understand why they were largely keeping out of things when it looked like it would be a very clear NO. But it doesn't look too good coming in so late, and again is being conveyed as panic, self interest or bullying dependent on what the words / phrases of the day are.

Salmond is a very wily politician if utterly disingenuous about many things.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I don't understand betting odds, I have a blind spot about them. Does that mean the bookies think the vote will be NO?

I suspect many of the undecided, if they haven't managed to make up their minds so late in the day, may just not bother voting.

-- Edited by Madeline on Tuesday 16th of September 2014 08:23:04 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

Madeline wrote:
I don't understand betting odds, I have a blind spot about them. Does that mean the bookies think the vote will be NO?
I suspect many of the undecided, if they haven't managed to make up their minds so late in the day, may just not bother voting.

-- Edited by Madeline on Tuesday 16th of September 2014 08:23:04 PM

Yes the bookies believe it will be a no vote, and based upon those odds in % terms you're talking about 20-25 % chance of it being a yes vote.

Ratty · County player

1/4 odds on a No means 1 chance of Yes to 4 chances of No. So that would be an 80% (4/5) probability of the Scots voting to stay in the UK.

Logically one would expect that the odds on a Yes would be the mirror-image, ie 4/1, or 20%. The fact that they are 3/1 (25% probability of a Yes) gives the bookies their profit.

smile

Ratty · County player

Well at least I agree with someone for once! blankstare

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Thank you both for the explanation. I wish the darn thing was all over and we knew what was going to happen.

indiana · Tennis legend

A few polls out today seem to agree around the 52% / 48 % mark in favour of NO, still individually with a margin of error that still indicated very close, but at least they agree.

General odds have moved very slightly further towards NO.

NO 1/5
YES 7/2

That indicates an 83/22 split, and taking out the bookies' margin / profit proportionately ( i.e. making out of 100 ) that's 79% / 21% predicted chance in favour of NO.

Anyway YES to serve, oops, sorry...

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

indiana wrote:

Anyway YES to serve, oops, sorry...

YES double faulted.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Andy has finally taken a stance - and seemingly wants Scottish independence !

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2760229/Has-Andy-Murray-come-favour-Scottish-independence-Tennis-star-tweets-No-campaign-negativity-totally-swayed-view.html

Armchair · County player

While I respect Andy's views I'd really have preferred he hadn't made them public at this late stage.
Given the idiotic reporting over the previous 'who would you support' brouhaha I don't think this will go down well in some quarters.

scottie1 · Futures level

Armchair wrote:
While I respect Andy's views I'd really have preferred he hadn't made them public at this late stage.
Given the idiotic reporting over the previous 'who would you support' brouhaha I don't think this will go down well in some quarters.

what does it matter he doesn't court favour with the LTA. Plenty of sportspeople have said no like loads of ex Scottish international rugby players and athlete Linsay Sharp. I think he has just expressed an opinion and is entitled to do so. I mean Beckham said No but can he even spell that.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I respect Andy's right to have a view.

But I do not respect his actual view (and I don't even mean the 'yes' part of it).

I do not understand how someone can say that they are going to base a serious decision with extremely important, long-term consequences on the frantic campaigning of 'last few days' - are you so unsure of your own beliefs and logic and intellect that you can be swayed by who shouts the loudest over the last 24 hours?

BeefyDeedz · Pro player

Given the statistical likelihood of the Yes vote being overestimated by the media (anywhere from 1 point to 5, usually) in a Yes/No referendum, it's not really a surprise when big names chirp up in order to sway undecided (and no) voters in the last few days. Andy's may not seem smart to us with his previous banter creating such drama but if he deems the future of his nation important enough to risk his 2015 Wimbledon being a mixed bag, then that's obviously a strong view.

I always found late-swayed voters to lack self-assurance but the Scottish referendum has had facts and rhetoric trickling in very thin amounts over the past few months; it's no surprise that one of the late influxes of 'passion' would change one's mind considering how placid the last few months have been, to me.

steven · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
I respect Andy's right to have a view.

But I do not respect his actual view (and I don't even mean the 'yes' part of it).

I do not understand how someone can say that they are going to base a serious decision with extremely important, long-term consequences on the frantic campaigning of 'last few days' - are you so unsure of your own beliefs and logic and intellect that you can be swayed by who shouts the loudest over the last 24 hours?

Yes, I agree - fair enough to be swayed by personalities when you're actually voting for them to represent you in parliament for the next few years (even though I'd prefer to focus on policies, manifesto promises are so easily broken or overtaken by circumstances that you have to also try to judge character as well) but being swayed by personalities over a decision like this makes no sense, at least in people who should be intelligent enough to make their own minds up based on the longer-term issues involved.

Then again, to be fair to Andy, it's impossible to convey all the reasons for making a decision like this in 140 characters. I wonder if he has been in favour of independence all along but didn't want to risk saying anything unless it was close enough that it might make a difference. I just hope it doesn't make a difference.