Week 5 - Great Britain F3 ($10,000) - Sheffield (Hard)

RJA · Hall of fame

RE: Week 5 - Great Britain F3 ($10,000) - Sheffield (Hard)

indiana · Tennis legend

Well done to Ed, Dave and a nice break for Fancy Dan. I hope other Dan is better soon.

And c'mon, Harry !

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

Not to be for young Harry. cry

QF: (5) Dan Smethurst WR 377 "defeated" (1) Dan Cox WR 249 by a walkover
QF: (3) Ed Corrie WR 296 defeated Rémi Boutillier (FRA) WR 638 by 7-6(5) 6-4
QF: (4) Dave Rice WR 317 defeated Constant Lestienne (FRA) WR 453 by 5 & 4
QF: (7) Antal van der Duim (NED) WR 426 defeated (WC) Harry Meehan WR 1242 by 2 & 0

*****

SF: (5) Dan Smethurst WR 377 vs (3) Ed Corrie WR 296
SF: (4) Dave Rice WR 317 vs (7) Antal van der Duim (NED) WR 426

steven · Tennis legend

Stircrazy wrote:
Not to be for young Harry.
QF: (5) Dan Smethurst WR 377 "defeated" (1) Dan Cox WR 249 by a walkover
QF: (3) Ed Corrie WR 296 defeated Rémi Boutillier (FRA) WR 638 by 7-6(5) 6-4
QF: (4) Dave Rice WR 317 defeated Constant Lestienne (FRA) WR 453 by 5 & 4
QF: (7) Antal van der Duim (NED) WR 426 defeated (WC) Harry Meehan WR 1242 by 2 & 0
*****
SF: (5) Dan Smethurst WR 377 vs (3) Ed Corrie WR 296
SF: (4) Dave Rice WR 317 vs (7) Antal van der Duim (NED) WR 426

Ed leads the (ITF) H2H against Dan 3-0, all in straight sets, with two of those wins coming at this time last year - in the semis here (i.e. in Sheffield) and then in the Wirral final the following week.

The Dutchman is an ex-top 300 player - CH 290 in 2012.

TMH · Futures qualifying

What happened to Harry?

Jeff Stelling · Club Coach

Reverted to the mean.

indiana · Tennis legend

Ed, Fancy Dan and Dave were all semi finalists here last year, and none of them won the title. Hopefully no repeat this year.

RJA · Hall of fame

TMH wrote:
What happened to Harry?

Van Der Duim is a dangerous player, capable of playing to a decent level. He beat Smethurst 1 and 3 at Bath last year.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Tweet from Harry

Tried my best today but injury had caught up and to be honest I can't take away from how he played. Still tho gd week and on to the next!

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

SF: (3) Ed Corrie & Dan Smethurst CR 660 (373+287) defeated Rémi Boutillier & Enzo Couacaud (FRA/FRA) UNR by 2 & 3

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

Dave had no problem with van der Duim in the doubles! wink

SF: (1) David Rice & Sean Thornley CR 412 (207+205) defeated (4) Yannick Mertens (BEL) & Antal van der Duim (BEL/NED) CR 828 (637+191) by 1 & 1

*****

Final: (1) David Rice & Sean Thornley CR 412 (207+205) vs (3) Ed Corrie & Dan Smethurst CR 660 (373+287)

Mburnett1 · Social player

Certainly a great week for ed, dave and fancy dan. The odd one out from tomorrows order of play clearly strikes me as Sean thornley. Sean all but seems to have given up on singles, does anyone know the reason for this? I could've sworn I remember seeing him ranked around the 500 mark a couple of years ago(?) and possibly even a couple of challenger singles appearances. It seems strange that he would concentrate on making a living from futures doubles prize money.

Ratty · County player

I must confess to feeling puzzled by the levels of hostility. (And a tad offended too; I do hope that I have never descended to mockery, or to outright insults about other people's lack of intelligence.)

Please bear with me one more time.

Assume a person's level of skill at tennis is on a scale from 0 to 100. I'm at 20. Nadal's at 100. Harry Meehan was at 70 a year ago, but has since improved to 80 (and it looks as though it may continue to improve). Yannick Mertens is at 90.

Harry beat Mertens yesterday by playing at a higher level than him. Let's say that Harry played a blinder with a level of 90; and Mertens had an off-day, with a level of 85.

Today Harry was back at 80 (or lower, by the sound of it), and took a thumping from a guy with a level of 90. So, yes, he regressed to his mean.

What's the controversy?

Spectator · All-time great

I think that what people were saying was that it's very difficult to work out what the "mean" of a rising tennis player is. The way you originally put it, combining the theory of regression to the mean with the statement "If a guy ranked 1242 beats a guy ranked 283, there are surely only 2-ish explanations: either that 1242 played above his standard, or that 283 played below his standard. Or - more likely - a mixture of both" seemed to imply that someone of a "1242 standard" was definitively of that standard, and not to allow for the fact that someone whose ranking was at 1242 might actually be moving towards a higher standard that might well become his or her mean. Even so, I don't think anyone would disagree with you that Mr Meehan was probably playing a good game even by his standards and Mr Mertens might have been a little off - and when you put it as you did above, I don't really think there is much controversy.

And apologies if my comment came across as mockery. It did seem as though a general theory and the rather more specific knowledge of a few posters were colliding ... but that may have been a misinterpretation of your meaning. At any rate, the comment was phrased generally as a recognition that said scenario is one with which I am all too familiar myself.

-- Edited by Spectator on Thursday 30th of January 2014 07:55:19 PM

plankton · Social player

Good to see some of our top 10 with such a strong start to season - although in futures. There's a group of players there who look like pushing Evo and Dino hard this year for top 3.