Thanks Indiana. I was just thinking it would be good for their confidence if Jo and Heather got in by right, but I'm not so good at following points to defend and so on. They don't really need much of an improvement to get there so I shall cross my fingers for them. My reading of your table is that Naomi will get a MD WC on the 250 criteria. As for others, it will be interesting to see what slant the new CEO puts on the recommendations - youth, previous performance at Wimby, good form this year, ranking position?? I somehow suspect we may be in for a few surprises.
Yes, Naomi is a virtually certain MD WC. She will comfortably beat the WR 250 mark. And would have to go a bit mad in big points tournaments to be anywhete near MD by right.
I'd say Naomi, Sam and Tara are WC ( of some type ) certainties and hopefully Sam and Tara will be at least WR 250 at the appropriate time by a mixture of themselves getting additional counting points and the points mark coming down a bit.
I would think that Jade will get a Q WC. After that interesting, but if still going with a maximum of 8 GB ( MD + Q ) WCs ( plus two play-off Q WCs ), it would be helpful if Heather and / or Jo freed up one or two.
Sam's reawakening for the year and good points haul in Edgbaston has pushed her over the top 250 for Wimbledon threshold and there she will almost certainly remain.
Laura, Heather and Jo are clearly very well over the top 250 mark and nothing has really changed for them since the last update. Laura will not need a Wimbledon MD WC and Heather and Jo remain a bit short of DA ( but will undoubtably get MD WCs if required )
Re the others, the updated guaranteed minimum ranking points at 09/06/14 are :
260 - Naomi - will absolutely be top 250.
220 - Sam - will almost certainly be top 250.
213 - CURRENT WR 250 - this points threshold is much more likely to decrease rather than increase.
196 - Tara - inching towards the mark, no doubt slower than she would like, but should get there.
136 - Jade - must still be a very outside shot.
90 or less - everyone else - the miracles required to be top 250 in time are extremely unlikely to occur.
Dan Smethursts back to back finals take him to 185 points towards a Wimbledon wild card.......often enough for top 250. Any other points score should guarantee it for him, Korea next I think?
With her 9 points from this week's 25K QF, Tara will move to 215 ranking points on Monday week, which is currently precisely equiavlent to WR 250.
Her guaranteed points by Wimbledon WC cut-off have moved up to 203 ( 215 - 8 - 14 + 5 + 5 ).
With Laura ( was guaranteed MD DA, but now irrelevant ), Heather and Jo ( both, as is the case for the French Open, a bit short still of MD DAs ) and Naomi very well clear of any likely top 250 mark, we have currently :
With no progression over the last 2 weeks, Sam remains just a bit above the Wimbledon top 250 line ( so will very likely make it ) and Tara remains below it ( and it's not really dropping to meet her ).
So still :
220 - Sam : 250 - ( 24 + 8 ) + ( 1 + 1 )
215 - CURRENT WR 250 : incidentally, this is a certain Tara Moore
With no progression over the last 2 weeks, Sam remains just a bit above the Wimbledon top 250 line ( so will very likely make it ) and Tara remains below it ( and it's not really dropping to meet her ).
Yes, it's strange how the top 250 points threshold has dropped just 8 points since November (i.e. since the WTA official 'year-end' list for 2013) despite the significant cut in the points on offer in the early rounds of 10Ks, 25Ks & so on. It must mean that either the higher points on offer in qualifying for WTA events is cancelling out much of the reduction in ITF points or more tournaments are being held this year (it doesn't really seem like it!) or a bit of both.
__________________
GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
Leon smith has advised this week that the guide for the doubles WC will be CR 400 so Daniel smethurst & Ed Corrie are likely to get one and Marcus /Lewis & Sean /david rice are in contention .
The patriotic thing to do would be to give all 3 the WC and I am sure one of the pairs would progress beyond the first round . It would be a nice swan song for Sean whose likely to retire end 2014 , Daniel smethurst & ed Corrie habe done it and surely with 16 pro futures titles Marcus deserves a well earned pat on the back .
It would also boost 4 GB top 10 singles players earnings that Could be reinvested in the more expensive travel to foreign challengers so an excellent in GB men's tennis .
While any player might decide to retire at any point and for any reason, I'd be very surprised if the potential retirement mentioned in the previous post is more than a very wild guess.
__________________
GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
If Sean is retiring IMO he shouldn't accept a wc, for the same reason that I thought it was wrong of Annie K to accept one and immediately retire. It denies someone actively pursuing their career (or returning from illness/major injury) an opportunity to make their mark and to earn some funds to keep progressing.
I agree Optimist, several players have had a wild card as a final payday but I have always felt the "gift" of one, was to help you pursue your career to new heights. Alan Mackin retired just before Wimbledon I remember despite having the promise of one, people of that level of integrity are fairly rare mind.
I agree with the last two posts special mention also for Naomi Cavaday a few years back who turned down one to try and get points playing in qualifying rather than the fat cheque of around 10k as it was at the time I believe.