I don't deny that individually there are at least 7 or 8 guys that could make that top 250 before Wimbledon, but I just can't imagine them all doing it together.
But hey, I made similar comments at an earlyish stage last year when the 20 guys in the top 500 came up. And it so very nearly happened.
The bad news with this is that the 250 mark has been coming in higher the last few weeks so I have risen it up to 195pts, sorry guys! Dan Cox should still make it with ease but its a tough ask for any others. Dan Smethurst and Ed Corrie could get a lot closer with 2 x 15ks and a challenger in the next 3 weeks. Kyle also has some 15k'ws scheduled where the points are better. Others need to win some 10k's to have a chance
But if ypu only start counting post Wimbledon last year ( and remember Laura reached the Wimbledon and also Eastbourne L16s ) the points earned ( still excluding this week ) are :
416 - Jo
403 - Heather
383 - Laura
So, we might see very close GB rankings in a few months.
That pesky 250 mark has been moving around again. Starting the year at 185, moving up to 193, now back to 185 again. For arguments sake I have set it at 190 and the good news is, Mr Cox surpassed that this week with his quarter final appearance.
That is Dan Evans, James Ward and Dan Cox all in line for a main draw Wimbledon Wild Card. I would stick my neck out and say they'll be joined by Dan Smethurst and that'll be it. He still needs another 30-40 pts but, with the form he has shown this year, plus some 15ks scheduled on hard coming up, I think he'll make it.
For the others, poor Alex Ward got crocked. David Rice, Ed Corrie & Marcus Willis have just got to much to do (but still possible!) Kyle and Ollie are the other possibles but this target is unlikely to be as relevant to them given their younger years and, with the LTA previously haven given them one each as a "promising youngster"......I cannot see them doing it a second time. But lets hope I'm wrong!
If Mr Edmund were to win two more 15Ks or three more 10Ks, he would be in with a shout at 250. If he reaches the mark, he qualifies for consideration for the WC. If he doesn't ... well, I think people will probably already guess what I'm going to say, so no need to repeat! (I would favour a QWC, though, in any event)
The difficult one will be the doubles WCs. Potentially a significant number of relevant pairings there: in order of current ranking the two Skupskis (unless they get in by right), Jamie Delgado and partner, Rice and Thornley, Corrie and Smethurst, Willis and Burton ... and I wouldn't be surprised if some combination of the higher-ranked young players (JWH, Broady, Bambridge, Gabb, Martin) came into consideration for a QWC of some sort. (Also Brydan Klein, but is he eligible for GB WCs?) Corrie and Smethurst's Challengers record is certainly making quite a strong case for their inclusion somewhere. And with a total of 6 points to defend (after this week) before June, Mr Corrie is likely to continue to go up the rankings. (Mr Smethurst has 34, so is a bit more vulnerable).
Rightly or wrongly, I do not see Kyle NOT getting a Wimbledon MD WC even if he doesn't make the top 250. Hopefully Dan Smethurst can keep up his form and make it.
Current WR is 219 points as last update, although can be expected to drop a bit.
Clearly Laura, Heather and Jo are well clear and Naomi has pretty well cemented her place. Sam and Tara still probably have a bit to do yet and Jade becoming more of a long shot.
Points guaranteed as of Wimbledon.WC date :
724 - Laura
553 - Heather
454 - Jo
250 - Naomi ( or 255 if she wins her final in Egypt )
When does Laura need to start earning points again to ensure she is DA MD? Also, how many more points (roughly, I know it changes from year to year) do Heather and Jo need to be Q / MD as of right?
Re Wimbledon MD DA, Laura is in no problem ( pointswise anyway ) and Heather and Jo have a chance.
If we take WR as being the DA point ( 128 - 16 Qs - 8 WCs ) as last DA ( could go up a bit due to withdrawals or down a bit due to any PRs ) then :
As at 12/05/14 ( 6 weeks before Wimbledon, which I believe will be the rankings date for the MD entry list ) :
then currrrent WR 104 is 605 points ( may well drop below 600 points by entry date ) and guaranteed points for then are :
799 - Laura - currently equivalent to WR 76
545 - Heather - WR 118
542 - Jo - WR 119
So Heather and Jo definitely in QD at least by right and chance of MD ( of course they will get into MD whatever, but I presume you are thinking about freeing up additional GB ( MD + QD ) WCs ).
Naomi might be already around the normal QD cut off, but come what may I see her as getting a MD WC so she will be in the total WC count whatever.