Interesting how people are already discussing the possibility of Nadal taking Murray's no.2 ranking before the US Open. If not then Nadal will surely secure it during, right?
Interesting how people are already discussing the possibility of Nadal taking Murray's no.2 ranking before the US Open. If not then Nadal will surely secure it during, right?
Quite possibly. The only way I can see Murray retaining the number 2 spot is to win the US Open and reach the final here.
Certainly Nadal is in a good position, but also certainly no "surely" about it.
For ranking points post Cincinnati, if you take off last year's Cincinnati points from their current points you have :
Murray : 8610 - 90 = 8520
Nadal : 7860 - 0 = 7860
So Nadal would have to win the title ( 1000 ) to get past Andy and even then if Andy reached the SFs ( 360 ) he would remain ahead. It must be debatable whether Nadal will win a hard coutt masters title for a second week running.
Moving omto the US Open and taking off both last year's Cincinnati and US Open points you.have :
Quite a gap yez ( 1340 ) but say Andy retained the title ( 2000 ) and Nadal went out at the SF stage ( 720 ) that would be 1280 to Andy's benefit.
So while Nadal clearly goes in "ahead", among the various scenarios that would have Andy still properly ahead after the US Open would be :
At Cincinnati go at least one round further than Nadal ( at least 90 ) and at the US Open win the title while Nadal doesn't reach the final ( at least 1280 ). In total a 1370 gain, overcoming the "starting" deficit of 1340 points.
I would personally
Andy a strong favourite to get more points over Cincinnati and the US Open. The question is can he beat Nadal by more than 1340 points.