Week 26/27 - Wimbledon women's main draw - grass

RBBOT · Futures qualifying

RE: Week 26/27 - Wimbledon women's main draw - grass

Peter too · Tennis legend

So (K)anapés to be served at 1pm.

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

Interesting odds on Betfair: match odds Laura Evens Kanepi 4/5 but tournament odds Laura 28/1 Kanepi 80/1

Surprised the bookies aren't making Laura favourite as they did against Erakovic but I would call this as another 50/50 match

WD40 · Club Coach

Don't know if anyone has noticed. but Laura has only served 8 DF's in her last 3 matches combined. seeing as how she was regularly serving this amount in one match prior to Wimbledon, something has changed!!

-- Edited by WD40 on Sunday 30th of June 2013 12:25:04 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

WD40 wrote:
Don't know if anyone has noticed. but Laura has only served 8 DF's in her last 3 matches combined. seeing as how she was regularly serving this amount in one match prior to Wimbledon, something has changed!!

-- Edited by WD40 on Sunday 30th of June 2013 12:25:04 PM

Maybe the change of coach has something to do with it ?

Not sure if a coach can have such an immediate effect but let's hope it's a sign of things to come.

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 30th of June 2013 12:35:49 PM

WD40 · Club Coach

On that note, Laura's second serve is going to come under severe pressure from Kanepi, as she has the highest percentage of return winners on second serve at Wimbledon so far this year.

-- Edited by WD40 on Sunday 30th of June 2013 01:14:24 PM

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I think that's fair for the tournament. Laura's got the game to win, but Kanepi hasn't. However for the next match, she's also got the ability to beat herself!

Ratty · County player

tony_orient wrote:
Surprised the bookies aren't making Laura favourite as they did against Erakovic

I've hardly placed a bet in my entire life (betting is illogical, you know smile ), but don't bookies simply calculate their odds so as to make a profit, no matter who wins? So longer odds than expected would suggest that the money is currently chasing Kanepi. Which is odd, given that patriotism often swamps common sense, and there's 45 times as many of us than of Estonians.

philwrig · Hall of fame

The real test for Robbo's serve will come when she hits the hard court swing and there is more pressure placed on it. Last year during the grass court season her DFs were comparitively low, but after the semis in Palermo on the clay problems started to develop again. Saying that she was under pressure yesterday and it held up well, but I'd like more evidence before I am completely convinced.

philwrig · Hall of fame

tony_orient wrote:
Interesting odds on Betfair: match odds Laura Evens Kanepi 4/5 but tournament odds Laura 28/1 Kanepi 80/1

Surprised the bookies aren't making Laura favourite as they did against Erakovic but I would call this as another 50/50 match

Betfair now going a more realistic 65/1 Laura and 80/1 Kanepi respectively for tournament odds.

philwrig · Hall of fame

I think Kanepi is a good matchup for Laura but whereas Kanepi's level of performance during this tournament is on an upward curve, Laura's is on a downward curve. So my confidence is not high.
Hopefully a day off will be enough to recharge the batteries, but eventhough the home crowd is a big advantage it is outweighed by the pressure placed on her young shoulders.
Kanepi has also reached quarters before so won't choke like Erakovic did if in a similar situation.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
WD40 wrote:
Don't know if anyone has noticed. but Laura has only served 8 DF's in her last 3 matches combined. seeing as how she was regularly serving this amount in one match prior to Wimbledon, something has changed!!

-- Edited by WD40 on Sunday 30th of June 2013 12:25:04 PM
Maybe the change of coach has something to do with it ?
Not sure if a coach can have such an immediate effect but let's hope it's a sign of things to come.

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Sunday 30th of June 2013 12:35:49 PM

The BBC team claimed that they'd talked to Miles and that Miles has got Laura to 'rock' slightly before her serve, so that she wasn't starting from a completely static position.

I don't know if anyone has noticed it or if it's very minor but, as you say, seems to have helped !

korriban · Challenger level

The good thing about today's match is that Laura can regard it as a "bonus". She's already had a good tournament, picked up decent ranking points, played reasonably well in patches (though never once at her very best), handled the British crowds and press with aplom, and added to her pot of experience. The reward for winning in all likelihood is a zero downside QF with Serena, although I regard Lisicki as pretty much the only player in the entire draw left who could upset Serena if everything went her way.....and even then it's highly unlikely!

Even if the rankings say otherwise, and the betting may say otherwise (I haven't looked), I would put Kaia Kanepi as a strong favourite today.

She has experience on her side, and when playing well her game is enormous, particularly her backhand DTL, but her forehand is awesome too!! She looked very rusty against Tara, and was lucky to come through that match. Against Kerber, who with respect is a far superior athlete to Laura and not at all in the pat-a-cake Wozniacki retriever mould, Kanepi blew her off the court in patches. In particular, Kerber's lefty slice serve to the Kanepi backhand was absolutely pulverised, with return winner after return winner whistling down the line.....Laura has used this serve two thirds of the time throughout the tournament, as it is usually very effective, but Mr Maclagan will need to think again today or things could run away very quickly. Both players are very aggressive, both like to go for winners, both can go through long streaks of winners and UEs alike, but in her third round match Kanepi's consistency (with aggression) was second to none. The Estonian, post latest injury, also appears to have lost a good 10kg (possibly more even looking at past photos!), gained a lot of muscle, and her movement has been transformed, so Laura is likely to lose most rallies where she is on the run. I always bang on about Laura needing more patience to wait for the right shot to unload, but against a big slugger with greater fitness and better movement at the moment, she will probably need to take a lot of risks to be first to the strike. Finally, Kanepi seems to have found a way of handling her nerves.....against Kerber she snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with nerveless, calm aggressive play.

Laura CAN win, but she will need to be at her very best from the gun, so nerves need to be banished today.

Wishing Laura all the best. Good luck!!

-- Edited by korriban on Monday 1st of July 2013 09:24:19 AM

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Gutted, but watching the match, not surprising. Too many UEs surprisingly on her forehand, and Kanepi able to deal with alot of her power.
She was handed the last two matches, and we all knew Kanepi wouldn't blink too much - although it did take her about five match points to win.

I was watching the Serena match at the same time, and it was verry noticable the difference in the amount of movement between the two matches. Laura's done well, but still alot of work to do on that movement. I'm glad she's served well this tourney though. I was worried that the old demons would have got her in that area. Well done Miles!

Onwards for Laura then, I wonder whether she'll play the mixed. I only hope she can take all the positives out of this and do well in her run up to the USO.

-- Edited by Helen40 on Monday 1st of July 2013 01:58:54 PM

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I don't think I'm overly cncerned with Laura's 'downward' trend this tournament. I think this just reflects who she's been playing and how she's perceived the pressure to win the match. I'm hoping that with Kanepi being much closer to her in ranking and having reached a quarter before, Laura will feel less under pressure and play better as a consequence.

I had noticed the rocking, but I haven't got much to compare it with as I haven't watched her for a year or so prior to Eastbourne. Whatever Miles has done seems to have worked though. Much much better stats than earlier in the year.

I think a coach can have an immediate effect, albeit the bigger changes take time, but one thought can change the way you execute a shot, and in Laura's case it's not like she didn't have a good serve already, just that it was inconsistent.

Even if she loses this match she should still be seeded for the US open, which is great, although she has got a few onts to defend between now and then.