RJA wrote:

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SMC1809 wrote:

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RJA wrote:

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indiana wrote:

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Great stuff !

That win is very possibly going to take him into the top 250 on Monday and it will take him to 3rd highest ranked Brit after Andy and James.

I won't repeat the obvious re a Wimbledon MD WC !

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He won't quite make the top 250 but he won't be far off.

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 What makes you think he won't hit top 250 with these points?

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Simple mathematics and an understanding of how the ranking system works.

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Just to clarify, the reason I asked the question initially was because the Top 25 table had/has Klein's projected rank at 249 with 183 points. Therefore, I assumed that with 185 points, Dan would be ahead of Klein. Knowing of Steven's excellent work, I would consider that he has an excellent understanding of how the ranking system works.

Part of it is also wishful thinking. Back in March Mike Dickson commented on Dan's omission from the initial DC squad and his "decline". I replied by predicting a Career High by the middle of the year, so I'm really hoping Dan reaches at least WR 247 sometime soon. 

Kyle did a Q & A with Bouncy. Some of the answers are interesting, some just very funny

http://metro.co.uk/2013/06/13/top-british-youngster-kyle-edmund-overjoyed-at-being-given-a-wimbledon-wildcard-3839015/

steven wrote:

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Kyle did a Q & A with Bouncy. Some of the answers are interesting, some just very funny

http://metro.co.uk/2013/06/13/top-british-youngster-kyle-edmund-overjoyed-at-being-given-a-wimbledon-wildcard-3839015/

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Read that on the train to work this morning, but wasn't sure where to post it.  You've got to love the final response!  

Re Dan's potential ranking and any projected rankings in Steven's top 25 table, I believe Steven has advised before that these are estimates based on the points vs ranking positions in the most recent rankings list, so they are not calculated based on other movements ( I am sure Steven will correct me if I am wrong here ).

So in general they are not true predictions ( though still helpful and interesting ). Just maybe helpful for the future if folk are aware of this.

Some sites do do "proper" projections though are not perfect, as RJA has accounted in this case ( missing out last week's futures ).

So, for now it appears to be the case from RJA's calculations that as things stand Dan will not be top 250 on Monday, and Steven agrees.

indiana wrote:

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Re Dan's potential ranking and any projected rankings in Steven's top 25 table, I believe Steven has advised before that these are estimates based on the points vs ranking positions in the most recent rankings list, so they are not calculated based on other movements ( I am sure Steven will correct me if I am wrong here ).

So in general they are not true predictions ( though still helpful and interesting ). Just maybe helpful for the future if folk are aware of this.

Some sites do do "proper" projections though are not perfect, as RJA has accounted in this case ( missing out last week's futures ).

So, for now it appears to be the case from RJA's calculations that as things stand Dan will not be top 250 on Monday, and Steven agrees.

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In most cases, yes, the projected rankings are just based on where the same number of points (and events) would have placed the player concerned in the current week's list, since for obvious reasons I don't have time to work out the exact points for every player on the ranking list who could affect the Brits' positions the following Monday.

They sometimes turn out to be spot on and usually not more than a handful of places out. The worst that has happened recently was that I was pretty confident that Dave Rice would be top 500 this week but he actually ended up at 501.

My estimates early in the week often turn out to be better than those on the 'live rankings' sites, simply because those sites show the best possible position for a player on a given number of ranking points at any given moment - if they don't score more points themselves, they can only stay in that position or go down if other players catch them. Later in the week, the live rankings sites are likely to be more accurate, though it is not a good idea to rely on them completely since they often turn out to be slightly wrong - hardly surprising when they are trying to track every player, especially once you factor in the effects of Futures going on and coming off a week late and the workings of the best 18 rule, etc.

For the top Brits (usually only those in the top 100), I do sometimes check a couple of the live rankings sites just to ensure that my method isn't giving an answer that is clearly higher than the Brit can possibly end up that week without winning more matches and I do amend my esitimates accordingly if that is the case. I am most likely to do that if a new career high might be at stake.

 

And, to back up RJA's point, Tsonga is about (?) to win,, his first singles, but is only 4-2 up in the third and been on the court since first thing.

He'll then have another singles, followed by his doubles.

And it's forecast to possibly be showery this afternoon.

steven wrote:

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For the top Brits (usually only those in the top 100), I do sometimes check a couple of the live rankings sites ...........

 

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 Well that shouldn't take too long then