Before the draw was made I almost assumed that any away tie will be played on clay , and I still think it will be . Gives the opposition a better chance and they may see it as a chance to discourage andy from playing
OK. What about a venue. I note that Zadar (hard) and Porec (Clay) were their last two home venues for DC (from a Steven re tweet), but where will this one be ?
The person who originally tweeted it said those were their last two home playoff ties, though he meant last two home ties in September, since the Porec tie on indoor clay was their 2009 semi-final against the Czech Republic.
Their last home tie (before a run of 4 away ties) was on indoor hard in Zagreb, the one before that on indoor hard in Split and the one before that on indoor hard in Varazdin, so they like to move them around a bit!
If they want to play us on outdoor clay, Umag is an obvious option, but they hardly ever play DC ties outdoors. But they might not want to, they might even prefer a super-fast indoor hard court.
Zagreb ATP 250 is played on a fast indoor hard court. Evo had a good run there last year, coming through qualifying and then taking a set off Garcia-Lopez in the first round. It was probably that run that got him into the Davis Cup team to play Slovakia which in turn got him into the team this year.
clay was always the default when we had Tim and Greg doing it all, but at least Wardy has some clay pedigree so it's not as bad, but for countries that have the option i think they would still go clay as it's andy's least best surafce, unless they are even worse than us on it (luxemborug springs to mind here)
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Croatia would have to be totally insane to pick a fast indoor hardcourt which would play totally into our hands.
There is likely to be an assumption that if Andy plays the singles will be split (on any surface), and so they should work to try and neutralise our doubles advantage. Which has to mean clay.
Clay also minimises, from their end, the risk of our #2 winning either of their matches.
I'd also be surprised if Evo at a DC tie away from home (perhaps on clay) is the same player as the Evo on a fast indoor court infront of a very vocal home crowd.
Of course lots can happen in 5 months, but it's difficult to see past a team of Andy, Dino, Flemray
Agree on all points. Evo hasn't even played on clay for nearly 2 years. No way could he be seriously considered for such a tie.
I am far from convinced that this tie won't be on hard. Cilic isn't great on clay and I would think that Croatia would think that he would have not dissimilar chances against Andy on both hard and clay immediately after the US Open. I don't see that they will necessarily assume that Andy is taking two wins here and that the singles will be split.
I can certainly see it being on clay, but wouldn't be that shocked to see it on hard.
Croatia would have to be totally insane to pick a fast indoor hardcourt which would play totally into our hands.
There is likely to be an assumption that if Andy plays the singles will be split (on any surface), and so they should work to try and neutralise our doubles advantage. Which has to mean clay.
Clay also minimises, from their end, the risk of our #2 winning either of their matches.
I'd also be surprised if Evo at a DC tie away from home (perhaps on clay) is the same player as the Evo on a fast indoor court infront of a very vocal home crowd.
Of course lots can happen in 5 months, but it's difficult to see past a team of Andy, Dino, Flemray
-- Edited by PaulM on Wednesday 10th of April 2013 03:50:29 PM
Yeah they probably will play it on clay unless they back Cilic to out hit Murray on a fast court
Cilic/Dodig are a very dangerous doubles pair. Cilic is dangerous full stop if he turns up on the day!!
I'd expect clay, along with the general consensus here. Given that, I'd assume James Ward will be the number 2, but it wouldn't be impossible to see Kyle as his back-up in case of injury.....or even as a direct pick, depending on how things go for Kyle between now and then. If Kyle picks up a few decent wins in the 3 CH clay tournaments in the US, and causes some damange at the French Juniors, why not? Is there anyone else who would rank above him on clay after James?
Dan Smethurst has shown decent form on clay in previous years and has not done too bad in this year's hard court GB futures so is in reasonable general form.
So, I'd currently rank him ahead of Kyle for a Davis Cup clay court tie. But be interesting to see how Kyle does in these clay court challengers.
i cant see playing Dan Smethurst is a good idea he may be ok on clay but he is not a Dan Evans and I cannot see him beating Cilic or Dodig or even getting close to them'
It has to be Murray and Ward in the singles with Evans or Baker as back up
Sorry, I should maybe have made more clear that I wasn't really advocating Dan Smethurst for a David Cup place, even if the match is played on clay.
I was really just responding to korriban's question by saying that Dan is one person who I would currently rank above Kyle on clay, so it was much more comparing him against Kyle.
I would agree that at this stage it looks like Andy and James with Evo or Jamie as backup. The tie is still some way off though.
I think you both misunderstand my point, which isnt about a sense of entitlement as such, however if you're going to turn around to the player who has been a fairly consistent number 2 for over a year, you're gonna need a good reason to do so. Ward showed he can handle the pressure of DC and can match top 100 players over 5 sets of tennis, which is arguably the main difference between DC and tour events. Assuming Ward stays injury free, I see him being a near lock-in for the place, as he has proven on several occasions he can upset top 100 and even top 50 players, has the fitness and the mental strength to handle the occasional and has been a committed member of the Davis Cup team.
So is it about entitlement, no, but acknowledging past efforts, yes. Frankly I find it ludicrous for you to suggest their efforts should have no bearing on selection.
-- Edited by murray_2k9 on Saturday 13th of April 2013 11:51:52 AM
Just read an article on Kyle with a fair few quotes, and interestingly he says he was gutted not to play this tie and Leon said he was very close to being picked. He's aiming for that second spot with Murray in September and reckons he can get it. It also says he will be seeded 4th for the French juniors which is good. http://m.thisishullandeastriding.co.uk/story.html?aid=18652833
Hmm if Kyle were to win the FO juniors it might make the argument more interesting, but I really dont see him taking the place of Wardy tbh. It would take an exceptional run indeed for Leon to turn to the two heroes of the previous tie and say neither have made the cut - not sure thats the best message to send!
The ONLY thing that matters is who are the best 2 players in September who can win matches on clay. The fact that Ward and Evans won on an indoor hardcourt in April should not have any bearing on selection. James is in pole position for the #2 slot at the moment, but that could easily change in the next 5 months, which includes the entire clay court season.