Week 12 - ITF $15000 - Sunderland - Hard

steven · Tennis legend

Week 12 - ITF $15000 - Sunderland - Hard

Peter too · Tennis legend

R1: FITZPATRICK, Anna (GBR) WC 788 v BORECKA, Martina (CZE) Q 596
R1: MOORE, Tara (GBR) 3 209 v GOLUBIC, Viktorija (SUI) Q 610
R1: WHYBOURN, Lisa (GBR) 281 v BELZUNCE-CROMPIN, Ana (ESP) Q UNR
R1: MURRAY, Samantha (GBR) 7 262 v DUNNE, Katy (GBR) WC UNR
R1: BROGAN, Anna (GBR) WC UNR v DE VROOME, Indy (NED) Q 580
R1: BROADY, Naomi (GBR) 361 v BREMOND, Iryna (FRA) 379
R1: SMITH, Anna (GBR) WC 986 v GEORGES, Myrtille (FRA) 6 251
R1: BROWN, Lucy (GBR) Q 684 v KIMMELMANN, Julia (GER) 355

-- Edited by Peter too on Tuesday 19th of March 2013 07:06:01 PM

blob · All-time great

korriban wrote:
paulisi wrote:
As expected the only British winners were Lucy and Sabrina
I know this is what the rankings say "should" have happened, and in that sense it is expected. But I'm sure all of us, and certainly all of the GB players involved will be hoping that some or all of them will be climbing the rankings at some point, and therefore we should expect some "unexpected" results from time to time. Or a strong performance; taking a set perhaps; or failing that getting to a tiebreak. Something. It didn't happen again today.
Today in the men's qualifiers Clay Crawford and Sam Hutt were not "expected" to win, but they did. They qualified for the main draw, beating higher ranked players. This sort of thing is happening week in week out on the men's side. Findel-Hawkins, Carter, Skupski and others.
Come on ladies. You CAN do it!!

Part of this effect is explainable because the two tours are not similar in one crucial area afecting this judgment.

WTA circa 1160 ranked women professionals. Little realistic difference in quality between the last 200, or the next 150 up - and so on. The boudaries I set are a somewhat arbitrary and imprecise judgement, but the general point holds.

ATP circa 1981 ranked male professionals. No real difference in quality 1200-1900, or 900-1200 etc. (same proviso as above)

The greater number of players allows for greater numbers in the boundaries between groups of players of roughly (true - over time) similar ability. Mens WR1800 defeating WR1300 is not really that surprising (and so on).

The difference in points, and thus ranking, in that 'ability level group' is easily explainable by fluctuations in form, injury, or even the number of events played - due to having the resources to get to them, or otherwise; e.g. if a player has just played a series of events, easily accessible to them, but perhaps not the players surrounding them in the rankings - events in their native country being an exemplar.

The same is true of course for the WTA, but the 'ability level groups' cover a smaller range of players, by virtue of the fewer players on tour.

It might be useful if rather than posting WR alongside players, we instead (or also) posted the actual number of ranking points.

ATP John Smith WR1800 defeated Joe Bloggs WR1101 - sounds very impressive indeed.

ATP John Smith 1 ranking point defeated Joe Bloggs 6 ranking points - consoderably less so.

NB: yes, even those 6 points have to be earned, but the illustration serves it's purpose given the further considerations outlined above.

There's more to it than that of course, and possibly a kernel of truth to the origianal argument. It's too easy though confuse the issue - if indeed we know what the 'issue' is.

paulisi · Tennis legend

As called Lucy won 2 -0 according to PhilWrig

steven · Tennis legend

So Lucy upsets Kawa in straight sets in the FQR for the 2nd week in a row

Hope she ends up getting at least one ranking point for her pains this week!

indiana · Tennis legend

Well done Lucy. She seems in decent enough form that I would least expect her to be picking up quite a few points in "average" 10K tournaments in the near future as opposed to these 15Ks. But all the best to her here.

Re the still weekly discussions being initiated re how awful our lower ranked women are and just hardly ever get surprise results like the GB men do, well over and above some of what blob says, I would say..

I would suggest that it is just universally the case that lower ranked / unranked women just don't have the relative quality to very often surprise decently ranked women. Whereas many lowly ranked and unranked men have the power and relative ability to shock decently ranked men.

What I am saying is that I really don't think that this supposed terrible ( but realistic to many of us ) failing to provide real shocks is a particular British "disease". Are loads of other lowly ranked / unranked women from other nations beating decently ranked ( say 400 to 600 ) players on a weekly basis. I very much suspect not.

It was like last week with korriban in my view having an overinflated view of the chances that at least one out of six such players should have won, when ohers including myself thought none out of six winning was actually the likely scenario. Just such a quality difference as compared to the men.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Realistically the only players who are going to cause these shocks are unranked juniors who are more than capable of stepping up to the seniors - Katy Dunne, Katie Boultier etc
The only way these average players will get points is if they come up against similarly average players at the moment unless they go away and develop their game significantly.

korriban · Challenger level

Congratulations Lucy - very nice win indeed (against a higher ranked player), and good luck to you this week in the MD.

Blob and Indy - I do hope you are both wrong, but I fear you may be correct. In other words, that the difficulties of lower ranked/unranked [750 downwards] GB women EVER beating higher ranked [500 up] women is a women's game issue, rather than a GB issue.

Personally I'm not convinced at all, but I don't have any facts to support my case, and I think the research would be complicated (and dull!!). If you are right, overseas lower ranked women's players beating top 500 players should be very very rare indeed, even in overseas "home" tournaments, which isn't something I'd ever really noticed before. I must admit to thinking that 1 or 2 local WCs and unranked/lower ranked women in Japanese, US, Aussie, S American tournaments would regularly turn over regular tour players.......but I could well be wrong.

Anyway, this should bode well for Jade who is playing an unranked player today. Good luck to her and all the other girls

philwrig · Hall of fame

Caught up with Lucy after her match and she was in great form and very upbeat for the future.
Last year was a complete writeoff as she had a bad shoulder followed by a serious foot problem, potentially a stress fracture.
But fully recovered she is now playing her best tennis and the future looks very good.

Poor old Tara though has a bit of a fever so was a bit down on herself, but fingers crossed she can still play well this week.

Sam Murray was also in good spirits and her immediate goal is to get her ranking up high enough to make FO qualies.

korriban · Challenger level

Q2: BROWN, Lucy (GBR) 14 684 beat KAWA, Katarzyna (POL) 1 414 7-6 (1) 6-2
Q2: BAMBURAC, Sabrina (GBR) 16 829 lost to MELANDER, Hilda (SWE) 2 428 4-6 2-6
Q2: WEBLEY-SMITH, Emily (GBR) 3 435 lost to GOLUBIC, Viktorija (SUI) 13 610 5-7 2-6
Q2: WINDLEY, Jade (GBR) 4 442 lost to BELZUNCE-CROMPIN, Ana (ESP) UNR 2-6 2-6

Well done Lucy! smile

Straight set losses unfortunately for the others girls this time. Jade lost to an unranked overseas player, however statistically unlikely that might be! wink

Good luck all the Brits for the MD

blob · All-time great

philwrig wrote:
Caught up with Lucy after her match and she was in great form and very upbeat for the future.
Last year was a complete writeoff as she had a bad shoulder followed by a serious foot problem, potentially a stress fracture.
But fully recovered she is now playing her best tennis and the future looks very good.

Poor old Tara though has a bit of a fever so was a bit down on herself, but fingers crossed she can still play well this week.

Sam Murray was also in good spirits and her immediate goal is to get her ranking up high enough to make FO qualies.

Great to hear some first hand reports. Thank you for that.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Emily's tweet is also disappointing. Reads something like two indoors done two to go. Hardly a positive winning attitude when you want tournaments to be over with. That's the way it sounds anyway.

Seems like only Lucy out of the girls ranked over 400 have any aspirations or form this year. Good luck to Lucy Sam Lisa and Tara and here's hoping the juniors coming through step up to the plate in the spring. Jade has points to defend next month and seems to have lost it going by that result.

paulisi · Tennis legend

No sign of Mel South in the draw. Tara has a nice quarter if she can overcome the flu like symptoms.

Lisa, Sam and Noami all have great chances to progress as well as Tara. Lucy has quite a reasonable draw and must have half a chance.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Looking at the draw I'd say 4 going through should be expected and any more is a success.

paulisi · Tennis legend

I'd deem a success If Tara gets to at least the QF and we get at least two other girls into the second round. Anything extra is a bonus at the moment.