I'm sure many of us are intrigued about how LA will spin his story to the world to his own ends. Clearly his actions over an extended period of time are indefensible on a number of counts.

1. The years of sophisticated blood transfusions and chemical doping, all of which are of course illegal

2. The years of open lies when questioned/attacked on the above, and the sophisticated smoke screen he put up in order to avoid detection.

3. The aggressive and bullying stance towards team colleagues, peleton rivals, the press and and other interest groups who questioned him. From the various books on the matter, nothing was beyond him, including physical threats, financial threats and legal threats.

4. The "cheating" of the public and the cancer charity supporters who believed in him wholeheartedly.

I could not see how he could aggressively defend himself for 12 years against all accusations (it would seem through lies and threats), both in public forums and under oath, then make a 100% u-turn, without making the situation worse for himself - legally and financially - perhaps even morally.

Then it hit me. I have a theory about what he will say. He is very much the all American hero, and he doesn't really give a stuff about Europe, and to be fair the European press and fans never warmed to him. He wants his US brand restored, and his standing elsewhere doesn't matter.

All criminals or cheats seeking redemption (especially in the US) need to paint themselves as victims. Overweight people are victims of the fast food chains; gun killers are victims of the video game industry and press sensationalisation, etc. Affairs are often blamed on sex addiction!

I'm sure LA will be no different. He needs to become a victim.....even better if all Americans in his sport were somehow victims.

He will say that he, and his American cycling team colleagues were all victims of a corrupt system of professional cycling, dominated by Eureopan teams, and administered by a corrupt European based organisation that tacitly allowed widespread doping to take place. In short, he will say that most/all the top European teams and previous Grand Tour winners from the 5-10 years beforehand were doped, with the full knowledge of the UCI, who were in so deep that to stop it would have effectively torn the sport apart. And as such, the brave US team, these "outsiders" were forced to beat "them" at their own European game, or simply give up.

Of course, there is some truth in all of this, but it doesn't justify a single thing of what he did, how he behaved towards others, and how he lied and cheated - LA is many things, but a "victim" is not one of them.

So I believe the strategy will be to turn it into a USA vs Europe battle of good guys versus bad guys, and then to turn around the gun by positioning himself as a champion of exposing the corruption at the core of world cycling administration. In order words, he was forced to dope by the sytem, the authorities were fully aware of him and others doing this (therefore confirming that it was the "norm") and he was forced to lie aggressively in order to protect the status quo within the sport.

For the avoidance of doubt, this is all speculation and theory - and we'll all find out soon enough - but he has proved throughout his career to be both a master of spin and situation management, and someone who is almost cavalier in his confidence to avoid the heat - and he sure can ride a bike.

-- Edited by korriban on Thursday 17th of January 2013 05:21:48 PM