Looking Ahead to 2013 and what we might expect/hope for

philwrig · Hall of fame

Looking Ahead to 2013 and what we might expect/hope for

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

I agree with the general thrust of your arguments for all of those players.
I think a good start to the year might be very important to everyone. With so much potential to be realised, or points to be proven, a slow start for anyone might be an affliction that proves hard to shake off, and might end up undermining & diminishing the year overall to an extent beyond the fact of not having scored many points.
I feel that this is especially crucial for Annie.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Yep a good start will be crucial given that is when the big ranking gains could be made.

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

This is certainly the most I've ever been looking forward to a new season with the way Heather and Laura ended last year. I think the difficulty could be not getting anxious if they don't have more success straight away in 2013.

I hopeful Laura will gain a lot from her off season given that it's the first time in a couple of years she has been able to do a proper off season training. I think the extra fitness will help her more in terms of progression through a tournament than in individual matches. She did seeem to run out of energy in Palermo, the US Open and Guangzou.

For Heather, it will be interesting to see if she has progressed her game to be more able to finish off points. If she can improve her net play, that should help a lot because I don't think she will ever develop the power to be aggressive from the baseline (though I will be happy if I'm wrong). She will also have the added confidence of a WTA title to take into the season.

indiana · Tennis legend

Clearly a great opportunity for both Heather and Laura to really rise up the rankings in the first few months of the year. Then with that improvement in rankings and better seedings I would hope that, plus their general improvement, would help them beat their second half of last year so even then they should continue to move up the rankings. In particular, being seeded at Slams ( as they hopefully will be ) should be helpful for big points. So unlike Phil, I look for and expect both their rankings to continue to improve in the second half of the year.

Looking at ranking points is interesting and I would predict for year end :

Heather about WR 20 ( currently 1841 ranking points )

Laura about WR 15 ( currently 2495 ranking points ) Her improvement was really terrific second half, and fitness improvements could really help her go deep more often. I don't even discount that she could have an absolutely stellar year and go even above that, but on balance I think about 2500 will be quite a bit nearer the mark than say kundalini's 4000, which would curently be top 10. But a really fast start, who knows...

Anne about WR 140 ( currently 502 ranking points )

JoKo about WR 90 ( currently 724 ranking points )

Elena, like Anne, about WR 140 ( currently 502 ranking points ) - assumes she is back by March. She appears to have good positiveness, but I have difficulty seeing her much higher than that next year, and could be a fair bit lower.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 15th of December 2012 02:57:10 PM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Heather - If she can get a win over a top 20 opponent within the first few months then I could see her ceiling being just inside the top 20, otherwise mid 20s seems more realistic, with most of her best tournaments being at $235K level; another title wouldn't surprise me. I suspect it may take a while for her to develop and refine a more aggressive approach; it's not an easy transition to make, though vital if she is to give herself a chance of ever breaking into the top 10.

Laura - I think she'll need to display the fighting qualities that we saw towards the end of 2012 if she is to do well on the clay and in the windy conditions you tend to get in Indian Wells and Miami. Looking at the current rankings, the top 4 have more points than Laura could realistically achieve in 2013, after that it very much depends on just how good her best 4 or 5 events are. My guess is she'll get about 4000 points.

Anne - Whenever I saw her in 2012 it looked like she wanted it too much. If she wasn't getting down on herself for putting a forehand long, a poor call would be enough for her to lose her composure and the match would slip away. As insomniacfolder mentioned, a fast start to the season is vital if she is to avoid spending much of 2013 frustrated at her inability to play perfect tennis. A return to the top 100 would be a pleasant surprise, 130-160 seems far more likely.

JoKo - I've not seen much of her so not sure. I would imagine her target will be top 100 and that she'll be very close by the end of 2013.

Elena - Over recent years she's played a schedule that has allowed her to bring a great deal of intensity to the court each time she performs. I'm not convinced that formula will work as well as in the past, given her ranking will be mid 180s when she returns and her protected ranking is 103 (I think). She may find that rather too many of her wins don't earn her that many points, especially if she chooses to use her PR to gain entry to qualifying for some of the bigger events. If she is to return to the top 100 it is far more likely to be in 2014. 150th would be a very decent effort, I fear that she may finish 2013 close to 200 in the rankings.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Ladbrokes have opened a book on the under/over for Hev and Laura's 2013 season end ranking.

They initially offered odds of 5/6 for Hev at 30 1/2, but the over was backed and it is now possible to get 11/10 if you think Hev's ranking will be better than 31.

As for Laura it is 23 1/2, and eventhough I have read a blog suggesting that this is too high Ladbrokes have not altered their prices.

I actually think these odds are about right. A top 30 ranking for would represent a very good year for Heather and similarly a top 20 one for Laura would be equally very stellar. So many things can go wrong so you have to factor that in.

The great unknown for Laura is how much of a boost this training block is going to have. It could be massive as by all accounts it has been brutal and has lasted 7 weeks. Laura just tweeted last week that her track sessions have been doubled for her last 8 days.

indiana · Tennis legend

Interesting odds. Maybe I am being a bit brave, but certainly last year just about everyone in our competition underpredicted both Heather and Laura by quite a bit ( including myself ) and that was with their pretty slow starts to the season, and unpredictable football injury for Heather. Don't think it's the first time we've underpredicted either, certainly for Heather.

For 2012 our average predictions were : Heather WR 69 and Laura WR 79 and it actually ended up Heather WR 49 and Laura WR 53.

I think there is maybe a subconscious wish not to be too rash with these two, as against our normal. if anything, optimistic predictions on here.

Now the bookies are no doubt trying to be as rational as they can be, and in their case as Phil suggests they've got to factor in things going wrong like injuries.

I stick by my predictions for Heather and Laura, partly assuming / predicting that nothing serious will actually go wrong in that they miss tournaments, in which case I really do expect big movements this year, most certainly first half of the year but still real forward movement later in the year too.

philwrig · Hall of fame

I think the first six months are crucial, because obviously the higher ranked you are the more likely you are to be seeded and thus benefiting from more favourable draws.

Indy I'll tip my hat off to you if Hev makes it to the top 20 mark, because that does seem a big call. Hev will really need to improve to make that mark, but here's hoping she does !

Laura to be top 20 only really has to maintain her US open form and stay injury free( no guarantees but to me much more plausible ).

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

I think ~50+ to ~top 20- is very possible. Staying there come year end, less so.

A very cursory glance at the last 2 YE rankings shows:

From 2011 » 2012
Sara Errani 43 to 6
Ekaterina Makarova 52 to 20
Varavara Lepchenko 110 to 21
Hsieh Su-Wei 172 to 25
Sorana Cirstea 60 to 27

Honourable mentions to:
Sloane Stephens 98 to 38
Angelique Kerber 32 to 5

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

If you take indiana's numbers for Laura (2495) and Heather (1841), then play around with the date setting on the WTA rankings, you discover:

Right now - 15th and 20th
End of 2011 season - 20th and 29th
End of 2010 season - 22nd and 32nd

As Tony mentioned, the players ranked 16-20 (true of most of 11-15 too) didn't get many top 20 wins last season and a few of those they did get were w/o or retirements. For instance Goerges got 4, Safarova 6 (not including Fed cup), Vinci 6, Cibulkova 4 including one w/o. Even Sam Stosur managed just 5 (not including Fed cup). Bartoli 2. Petrova beat a lot of top players in Tokyo. Of course some of these players had the advantage of being seeded throughout the year.

Both Heather and Laura playing Pattaya straight after Aus. Depending on the draws, it might not take an amazing a set of results for one or even both of them to be seeded for Indian Wells.

-- Edited by kundalini on Tuesday 18th of December 2012 01:44:20 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

It worked out to be a bad move to travel east to Pattaya straight after the Fed Cup last year, both beaten in the first round, Laura having to retire. This year of course both Hev and Laura will have to play all the singles matches in the Fed Cup as well. Seems like a good idea to try and take advantage of a weak field, but Fed Cup is emotionally and physically draining, so with no preparation time out there and then having to travel back west to Dubai for the following weeks tournament it makes no sense #justsaying

PATTAYA BEFORE FEDCUP NOT AFTER, IGNORE THIS POST.

-- Edited by philwrig on Tuesday 18th of December 2012 04:49:51 PM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Heather was announced a few days ago. I can't recall the link. Laura came from the following Italian site, also listed on their twitter along with various withdrawls from Aus Open. I think I found the info on tennisforum initially.

http://www.livetennis.it/post/124749/anche-laura-robson-sara-presente-a-pattaya-city

-- Edited by kundalini on Tuesday 18th of December 2012 05:56:04 PM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Latest info is that both Heather and Laura are playing Pattaya. The following site announced it (according to the date of the article) before TF and that Italian site so they can't have got the info from them and their list of other entrants matches the info from the article that announced Heather a while ago, rather than the out of date list on the official website. Still possible that their info is wrong. My apologies for my part in this farce.

http://www.tennisworldusa.org/WTAS-NEWCOMER-AWARD-WINNER-ADDED-TO-PATTAYA-OPEN-ENTRANTS-articolo7367.html

Here's Heather:

http://www.pattayamail.com/sports/heather-watson-and-sorana-cirstea-join-ptt-pattaya-open-18790

Looking ahead to 2013, it would seem that a mad dash for points in the early part of the season is something that we might expect. It is noticeable that both were outside the initial cut for all three Premier events (Brisbane, Sydney and Paris) announced so far. In Heather's case she seems to have committed to the 235K events long before she'd have known whether she would have made the cut for the Premier events.

After Fed Cup which seems to be in Israel again, they might play Doha as both would expect make the cut. Cut for Dubai the following week, was 33 last year and playing 3 rounds of qualifying for minimal points doesn't seem a sensible option, so maybe have a break until Indian Wells.

-- Edited by kundalini on Tuesday 18th of December 2012 08:33:11 PM

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

If you look at the results that the players ranked 16-20 have had this season, it certainly seems achievable (maybe more so for Laura unless Heather can start getting at least occasional wins over top players).