GB Mens tennis in 2013. 10 random predictions

korriban · Challenger level

GB Mens tennis in 2013. 10 random predictions

indiana · Tennis legend

korriban, please do not leave this forum, you have already in a fairly short time here been in my view a very good and interesting contributor.

As is the nature of someone that posts as in the depth you have at times, much of what you have said I have agreed with, some I disgreed with a bit ( and we have had the odd debate such as re Mr Golding smile ) but it has often still been thought provoking, sometimes of what I thought were my already well established views.

As to Ratty, I don't know if you have come across him before, but it is not the first time that he has given vent on folk making predictions, which i think it is very fair to say is someething people who follow all sports very often do ( and many of us do in this forum and indeed have competitions ). Like many, I find it both interesting to speculate and predict ( randomly or otherwise ), and to read others' predictions, especially with reasons, such as in the women's "Looking ahead to 2013..." thread. For very many folk it adds interest to the following year, season or whatever. At best it adds that context and interest, at worst it is harmless.

Ratty can sometimes be fun in his pecuiar ways / views at times ( why do folk predict ? why do folk ever call tennis players by nickmames etc etc ) and sometimes annoying, and is pretty much a one off, and nothing wrong as such with that. What in time I have realised is not always to take a great deal of notice of him ( sorry, Ratty )

But coming across as pretty rude to a perfectly fair post from a newish poster ( to some of us it is just Ratty being well Ratty ), and when clearly Ratty himself is coming from very much a minority standpoint, is quite uncalled for, and being quite unrepresentaive of this forum, should I hope never make someone feel like leaving. The post was a point of view, the tone was unfortunate.

Sorry I have not had time as yet to give my own random predictions, or comment at all on your interesting opening post.

PLEASE STAY AROUND, KORRIBAN !!! AND FOR ONE THING PLEASE DO NOT JUDGE THIS FORUM BY RATTY !!!

-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 16th of December 2012 07:08:42 PM

Spectator · All-time great

I quite enjoy your postings, Korriban, and would join others in hoping you won't leave.I don't think that Ratty's comments were meant personally. And you clearly have lots of fellow posters who value your presence!

And if it's not too much of a paradox, I am grateful (close your eyes, Ratty) for Ratty's postings, too. While we'll still have to disagree generally on the values of mentoring and occasionally on tone, I like the intellectual honesty of (his/her/its) comments.

-- Edited by Spectator on Saturday 15th of December 2012 07:00:43 PM

Ratty · County player

Here's my first prediction: If you fire enough shots with your scatter gun, some of them will prove to be correct, and the predictor will boast about his (*) remarkable insights!

Here's my second: Some people will do better than expected, some will do worse, and some will do OK, but nobody can tell which will do which.

(*) "his", because speculative sporting discussions based on hunches and non-existent evidence are exclusively a male thing.

smile

korriban · Challenger level

Thanks! Nice!

I thought this was an open-minded forum which welcomed everyone's opinions and encouraged discussion, debate and the sharing of facts, research and points of view. And one which discouraged personal comments about posters, unless they were positive or supportive. After all one can always go on Mumsnet and hurl irrational abuse at anyone not towing the party line, whatever that might be, so there are alternative places to vent.

I'll let others comment further if they wish to, but for now that's me done with this forum.

Miriambee · Futures level

korriban wrote:
Thanks! Nice!
I thought this was an open-minded forum which welcomed everyone's opinions and encouraged discussion, debate and the sharing of facts, research and points of view. And one which discouraged personal comments about posters, unless they were positive or supportive. After all one can always go on Mumsnet and hurl irrational abuse at anyone not towing the party line, whatever that might be, so there are alternative places to vent.
I'll let others comment further if they wish to, but for now that's me done with this forum.

I sincerely hope not, as your comments have always been positive and interesting. Sometimes the clue is in the username, and there are a people who like to stir, the above shouldn't be taken personally!

Ratty · County player

I thought the protocol of the internet was that one can be as rude as one likes, provided that one makes sure that it's all IRONIC, which one does with a smile or two ...

... especially when one's been a member since 10 December 2006, and was once voted the "Most Controversial Poster" on the Board.

But anyway, one person's "edgy" is another's "offensive", and I certainly never meant to be the latter. So, I'm sorry. cry

Friends now?

korriban · Challenger level

Ratty wrote:
I thought the protocol of the internet was that one can be as rude as one likes, provided that one makes sure that it's all IRONIC, which one does with a or two ...
... especially when one's been a member since 10 December 2006, and was once voted the "Most Controversial Poster" on the Board.
But anyway, one person's "edgy" is another's "offensive", and I certainly never meant to be the latter. So, I'm sorry.
Friends now?

Apology accepted. Obviously the title of "most Controversial Poster" is very important to you.

You have the right to be rude as you like and as controversial as you like, so long as it doesn't discourage other posters from taking a view and/or expressing themselves. Predictions are fun to make and shoot down, and they also encourage responses/disagreement, even if they are inherently bound to be wrong (otherwise we'd all be rich). If I'm right about my most of my predictions, I fully intend to boast about it from the rooftops, but I wouldn't hold your breath waiting!

indiana · Tennis legend

korriban wrote:

Apology accepted. Obviously the title of "most Controversial Poster" is very important to you.

I don't think we had a vote for the "most contrary" so it was the best fit.. smile

Ratty · County player

I still can't quite see the value of predictions.

By any objective criteria, Andy Murray's a lot more likely NOT to win Wimbledon in 2013 than he is to win it. If I was a bookie I'd base my current odds on 40% Djokovic, 30% Murray, 20% Federer, 10% the field. I think most people would agree, within a few percentage points here and there.

So what does it actually MEAN, when one says that one "thinks" that Andy Murray will win Wimbledon next year? "Thought" is surely a logical process leading inescapably to the opposite conclusion.

(Is that rude?)

-- Edited by Ratty on Sunday 16th of December 2012 06:40:56 PM

steven · Tennis legend

Ratty wrote:
I still can't quite see the value of predictions.

By any objective criteria, Andy Murray's a lot more likely NOT to win Wimbledon in 2013 than he is to win it. If I was a bookie I'd base my current odds on 40% Djokovic, 30% Murray, 20% Federer, 10% the field. I think most people would agree, within a few percentage points here and there.

So what does it actually MEAN, when one says that one "thinks" that Andy Murray will win Wimbledon next year? "Thought" is surely a logical process leading inescapably to the opposite conclusion.

(Is that rude?)

As a statistician, I'm with you on this ... BUT you seem to miss the point that forums are about discussion (be it serious, frivolous or somewhere in between) and having fun, and lots of us have fun making predictions and seeing to what extent they come true or make us look silly.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Tell you what, Ratty - do as I mostly do, just don't read the prediction threads! Or if you do, just read and go away quietly. Let those that enjoy it have their fun.

korriban · Challenger level

Ratty wrote:
I still can't quite see the value of predictions.

By any objective criteria, Andy Murray's a lot more likely NOT to win Wimbledon in 2013 than he is to win it. If I was a bookie I'd base my current odds on 40% Djokovic, 30% Murray, 20% Federer, 10% the field. I think most people would agree, within a few percentage points here and there.

So what does it actually MEAN, when one says that one "thinks" that Andy Murray will win Wimbledon next year? "Thought" is surely a logical process leading inescapably to the opposite conclusion.

(Is that rude?)

Not especially rude, Ratty. A bit preachy, perhaps. Touch of Star Trek about it, perhaps (sorry!)
In any large field event such as tennis or golf, even where there are just a few outstanding players, the odds of any 1 player winning is invariably less than 50%. I suspect you are probably not far off on your odds. That creates the logical problem that if anyone predicts a specific winner (and I mean anyone), they are always more likely to be incorrect than correct. In your world the solution might be to never make a prediction. Not in mine. I'm sure the odds would favour Djokovic - but I still believe Murray can (and hopefully will) win (there's a bit of pseudo-logic I could employ to explain this, and I do have some strong arguments [Olympics performance, US Open confidence, crowd support, Lendl impact, momentum], but ultimately it's a value judgement). Probably wrong, but harmless fun.
On HossTheBoss's bullish view of Marcus Willis - is there something you know that we don't know?! I hope you are right.
Great to see Neil Pauffley in La Manga with the rest of the Brits, some fully funded, some not. Perhaps he is more relaxed and philosophical about LTA funding support that myself and a few others - after 20 months out with injury, I guess he is glad just to be part of the training team at all - and both healthy and in good spirits, judging by the photos. His jumping further up the rankings would give me the greatest pleasure of all, and I have been quite ambitious on his behalf in my predictions. A lot of stars need to align, but there's enough evidence in place to suggest he could be a hidden gem. The first few months will be critical, but I really do hope he is offered a few wildcards into the bigger events via the LTA, especially if those early year tournaments further demonstrate his progress.

-- Edited by Ratty on Sunday 16th of December 2012 06:40:56 PM

-- Edited by korriban on Wednesday 19th of December 2012 12:15:38 PM

HossTheBoss · Strong Club Player

Heres one for you all to chew over ,Marcus Willis to get in top 350 before end of 2013.

PockyTastic · Futures level

HossTheBoss wrote:
Heres one for you all to chew over ,Marcus Willis to get in top 350 before end of 2013.

As a Berkshire boy I hope this happens but I'm not sure it will sadly...