15 in the top 400 is looking much more likely than Bob's 20 in the top 500 now.
10 already in top 400, Ashley and Brydan on the cusp with Gabb, Tom F, Broady and Alex W knocking on the door. I can only see Ed dropping for a short time and Marcus potentially falling out of the top 400.
20 in the top 500 looking harder and harder now. Josh G will be ousted in the next couple of months and it is difficult to see enough players breaking through in that time. Josh M seems to be playing challengers and falling over in qualifying, Neil P and Marzi have had a slow start and JWH is injured, so relying on Bambo, Coups and Cam to jump quickly up the rankings.
With 20 in the top 500 off the agenda for tthe time being, hopefully to return before too long ( though need a few more guys to get their seasons going ), the 15 in the top 400 scenario is simmering nicely with good weeks from Brydan, Richard and Tom.
I think 10 in top 300 in more of a challenge along with 15 in top 400 and 20 in top 500 for the men.
Might take a little time, but I can see all three happening this year.
I agree. You've got to set the bar high enough to be worth something. (It should have a 5 in the top 200 as well, and 2 in the top 100).
The good thing about now (unlike when Bob was getting all excited last year) is that quite a few of the 'retirees' are no longer in the list (Baker, Boggo, Josh G) which was rather artificailly making the situation look a little too rosy.
All the top players are now active tour players and the average age is pretty low - a good sign of things too come. I believe in the contagion theory too - there's a good chance none of the guys in Canada would have done so well on their own - the buzz and vibe of success is catching (not that all GB players have to hang around with their own kind all the time but 'team spirit', however it comes, can be really good).
Looking at the girls 15 inside the top 500 is definitely a target for next year.
Already have 11 and the likes of Anna S, Lucy, Katie, Katy and Mel could make it.
Well, Katy D's nearly there, which would make 12 in the top 500. Not sure where the other 3 are going to come from though. Anna S is there, Lucy seems to hit a barrier in the 500s, Katie Boulter is still splitting her time between junior and senior events. Maybe Manisha or even Eleanor Dean as an outside chance, but that still only makes 14. Not sure the 15 in top 500 is so achievable. Anyone got any other candidates that might help Paulisi's total?
I have the current 11(assuming Mandy and Lisa return) plus Katy, Katie B, Manisha and Eleanor - might take a while. I don't see Lucy breaking in anymore. Freya is the other girl who may break in dependant on what her schedule is.
Harriet Dart is a possibility if she plays more seniors might be the 15th. You can't forgot any of the girls ranked 700-1000 bar Katie they are well overranked.
What is the news on Mandy and Lisa returning? I don't think Freya or Katie B as I think they're splitting their time this year between seniors and juniors and probably won't do enough events to make the cut. Harriet is a possibility. I thought it was strange last year that, having made such a good start on a senior career, she went back to playing juniors. Maybe because she was at the NTC who wanted junior headlines (although I don't think she provided them!). I see she has appeared as a player on the JTC Academy website (alongside Katie D), so perhaps will now focus on seniors again. Manisha's steadily edging upwards but not sure where her ceiling is likely to be - she seems to be a solid player rather than one with real weapons but has a good on court attitude. Can't wait to see what Miss Dean will do. Still think 15 in the top 500 is a bit ambitious.
Not mentioned this for a while, but on the girls side we have 11 inside the top 500.
Katie B is going to be there soon enough.
Lisa W if she can get back to some of that form will
Eleanor Dean if she stays fit will surely make it.
Which just leaves one more- Manisha Foster looks the most likely. I don't see Lucy getting there. Harriet has the talent, but it may be a bit early yet and Eden is showing impressive form at present.
All note we are very close to have 25 girls inside the top 1000 which will be a rarity
For the men 20 inside the top 500 is still a long way off(currently at 17, but nobody knocking on the door)
We now have seven in the top 300 with Marcus, Oli, Ed and Alex all capable of taking the number into double figures
I think 5 inside the top 200 should be viable soon.
15 in the top 400 is still on as well - Brydan, Ash, Gabb and Tom F should all get there.
There are also a lot of people knocking on the door of the top 25, but that position is at it's poorest ranking for some time
-- Edited by paulisi on Friday 16th of May 2014 03:41:36 PM
Yes, it is looking like come Monday we will have 20 in the top 600, but the 21st around the 740s.
When you consider that the 3 of these who will be in the 500s, but still a fair way off the top 500, include the assumed pretty fully retired Josh Goodall ( the other 2 being Josh Milton and Luke ) then we really are for now effectively very far off these 20 in the top 500.
Hopefully Josh Milton and Luke can move up. Who then outside that top 700 can make it into the top 500 within the next year say ?
Going back to Bob's 20 in the top 500, i've looked at points to end September
The top 12 in the rankings cannot fall below 500(assumes 68pts cut off)
Milts will also be safe on min 69pts
Thus you need 7 from the following(excludes current tournaments)
Ashley can drop to 63pts
Klein to 61pts
Bambo 56pts
Neil P 50pts
Gabb 40pts
Tom F 36pts
Cam 36pts
Coups 33pts
Goodall 30pts
Toby 28pts
Jack 25pts
Marzi 21pts
The rest are a long way off
Realistically, Ashley, Klein, Neil P and Bambo should be able to get there
You might struggle to find another 3 yet- Gabb is out of form, Tom F injured, Cam injured and then off to college. Coups possible, Goodall semi retired, Toby, Jack and Marzi needs several very good weeks.