I've now given up on having a 4th Brit at the AO qualies. I did fool myself into believing that Willis/Kedmund/Corrie had an outside chance, but now the best bet is probably Rice, who is miles away.
For me, the positive thing is that ALL the 15 that are guaranteed a place this year, seem to be going in the right direction at the moment - with the possible exception of Josh G depending on how much he intends to play. I would guess that if he is following Harry Meehan around, then he is going to play quite a few.
Outside the top 15, the list of next years probables and possibles gets longer by the day
Josh M, Oli, Liam, Luke, JWH, Rob C, Neil P would be in my list with Jonny O'M as an outside bet (may be a year too soon for him but hope he proves me wrong)
I am sure others could be added to the list.
-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Friday 15th of November 2013 06:04:54 PM
Thought I would give this End of Year table an update. It now looks like 70 points will be needed to get inside the top 500 and we now have 15 guaranteed after the sterling efforts of Dan S in Champaign this week. I also think that Oli and Luke are almost definites to get in now, given their recent form. They are both due to play again next week and by the looks of it, they are off to Qatar in December for possibly 3 more Futures. Sort of hoping one of them nails it this week as a tournament win for either would do the trick.
Josh M is also now in with a good chance, assuming he does play again this year. (Oh, if only he had made one of those 5 MPs last night.) He does appear to be planning some December futures, so fingers crossed he can maintain his upturn in form.
Those three would make 18. Pauffers is still a long shot, depending on his schedule in December. He has been a bit hot and cold this year, but one more HOT week (like Germany a few weeks back) and that would see him in.
Beyond that, unless Boggo rises like a pheonix from the ashes, I can't see anyone else getting there.
20 in top 500 is looking more likely to happen by end Feb, using 70 pts as the benchmark. Although it will be difficult.
Only Tom F - 3 pts to defend, so would need 1 pt Josh G - 16pts to defend, so would need 7 pts. Could easily get these in Cambodia in next two weeks.
So 5 more to find:
Liam - nothing to defend, needs 5 pts could get next week Oli - nothing to defend, needs 4 pts, could get next week( or this week) Josh M - 8 pts to defend, needs 14pts Neil P - 1 pt to defend, needs 17pts Marzi - nothing to defend, needs 26 pts
Otherwise you are relying on JWH or Bambo to have good runs or Boggo to return.
-- Edited by paulisi on Saturday 16th of November 2013 11:56:28 AM
Bob, I'd be tempted to add George Coupland to that list.
George C is a good call.
But I'd be curious to know who people would pick as the 'Ashley' of next year - i.e. the guy who is ranked at WR 1500 or so now but could get to the top 500 by this time next year.
It's a hard pick and it's tempting to pick the real youngsters because they (probably) have more relative tennis talent - but, as with Ash and others, it's often the slightly older ones who suddenly get it all together.
It's so much a question of character and commitment and goals etc. that I've no real idea as I don't know them but that is 'cowardly' so, as a youngster I'll go for Evan, and Joe Salisbury will be my older pick which is pretty unlikely as if he graduates next year but still possible if he has a blinder of the second six months to the year.
Bob, I'd be tempted to add George Coupland to that list.
George C is a good call.
But I'd be curious to know who people would pick as the 'Ashley' of next year - i.e. the guy who is ranked at WR 1500 or so now but could get to the top 500 by this time next year.
It's a hard pick and it's tempting to pick the real youngsters because they (probably) have more relative tennis talent - but, as with Ash and others, it's often the slightly older ones who suddenly get it all together.
It's so much a question of character and commitment and goals etc. that I've no real idea as I don't know them but that is 'cowardly' so, as a youngster I'll go for Evan, and Joe Salisbury will be my older pick which is pretty unlikely as if he graduates next year but still possible if he has a blinder of the second six months to the year.
Have to say that Joe Salisbury is another name I nearly put down as a long shot. But, I wasn't aware of his pending graduation. Will 6 months be long enough to accumulate the necessary points ? Will he even pursue a tennis career ?
Would George Morgan not be the Ashley equivalent, certainly by age since he is just 9 months younger than Ashley so is older than Ashley was a year ago. Yes, he has been up in the 600s but has now had a long period much further down so seems a reasonable shout. And with him seemingly in a "better place" he's maybe worth watching.
Jonny O'Mara I think worth watching from the younger guys. Evan Hoyt, I don't know - seems his potential has been talked about for many years, both within and outwith the LTA, maybe time to deliver.
Yes, good point, George could be our next Ash but he is already in the top 1000, although only just.
As a complete outsider, I'll put in a word for Keelan Oakley. I really can't see him in the top 500 but what do I know, sure people said that about Ash too. He seems a very nice person, is fun to watch, and appreciates his tennis after being so nearly side-lined with injury (scary that his back surgery - exactly the same as Andy's - put him flat on his back for 6 months).
There was quite a nice article a couple of days ago (from the Shoreham Herald !!!!:
I'm not sure about George Morgan, but if he is going to break through, we really be seeing something noteworthy (at pro level) in 2014. Same story with Robert Carter and George Coupland. Of these, I think Mr carter may have the best year.
Of the younger players, I would mention Joshua Paris, Julian Cash, Lloyd Glasspool and Jack Findel-Hawkins. The last 2 are at US college, so we may only see them fleetingly for the next few years at pro tournaments. I'm not sure if Mr Cash and Mr Paris intend to go down the college route, go into the pros, or something else.......if they both combine a full programme of junior ITF and increasingly pro ITF tournaments, we could see a big step jump into the top 750, although top 500 is all but impossible.