paulisi wrote:

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The men's table looks very promising.

Only Tom Burn in there who seems to be concentrating on coaching and Bloomers who is regularly injured that potentially may drop out.

However there is competition to get into the group with Short, Carpenter, Morgan, JWH and Bambridge all capable of pushing on.


The next step is to get some of those hovering in 500-600 mark under 500's and some of those in the 305-500 mark closer to the 300 mark

Dan and Ed should move higher into the top 250 fairly easily if they keep fit.

James, Josh G, Jamie and Alex need some consistent result to keep their ranking and progress upwards.

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And also Liam Broady - if he can get his injuries sorted out.

One other thought was that David Rice may well give up on any singles ambitions in chasing the money with Sean at challenger and above in doubles. Therefore i would expect him to drop out as well.

15 inside the top 500 looks comfortable and should be done in next few weeks.

12 there now, Kyle will be there next week with a couple of decent results from Dan Cox and Oli should see that achieved

30 players inside the top 700 - plausable
25 players inside the top 600 - difficult with Bloomers & Burn not playing much
15 players inside the top 500 - see above
10 players inside the top 350 - 9 should be done comfortably, difficult to see who will get to no.10 - Alex Ward, Kyle, Oli - might be a while
5 players inside the top 250 -if Alex and Jamie can get a run together, Dan and Ed could get there - (all subject to fitness)
2 players inside the top 100- might be a while.......

This week (week 19) has been a terrible week for the 13 Brits ranked above Kyle:

- 9 of the GB top 13 played, 3 were injured and 1 is managing ongoing injury problems

- of the 9 who played, 8 (all but Wardy) lost to lower-ranked opponents, 6 of them going out 2 or more rounds before they were seeded to go out

And yet, for Kyle and some of the players below him, it has been very encouraging. 4 Brits are still in singles this week and due to play 2 Finals and 2 SFs on Saturday, 3 of them against no. 1 seeds and the other against a no. 2 seed. All four of these Brits are ranked in the 500-700 range and are due to play opponents who are 86 (James), 274 (Kyle), 318 (Ashley) and 472 (Tom) places above them.

More to the point, this week has just been an extreme version of the previous two weeks, where much the same story applied if not to quite the same extent. Indeed, Dan Cox even managed to reach a Final when he was ranked below Kyle then took a week off and, now ranked above Kyle, suffered a R1 loss that baffled even him!

I don't know if this effect is just particularly marked at the moment because we are in the very short GB clay court season (though obviously not all of the events Brits are playing in outside the UK are on clay) or if the reality is that the Brits ranked in the 300-800 range (or even the 250-1000 range) are actually very evenly matched, which may partly explain why we are getting more and more players moving up into the top 700 but hardly anyone looking like breaking out upwards into the ranking range where players regularly get into Challengers.

I think it is going to be a very interesting year on the men's side - I just hope we get some players breaking upwards to Challenger level by the end of it so it isn't another frustrating one as well. If we do, it'll be interesting to see whether those who have made big moves in the first few months of 2013 will continue to move up the GB top 25 table and leave those who have been range-bound for a while in their wake or whether most of the big risers early in the year will stall and some of the seemingly range-bound players will finally break upwards instead.

It's getting really competitive to get into the top 25 now and looking at the possible points at least 38 points might well be needed to make it- which is going to be a ranking of 620ish.

In terms of players going backwards at the bottom of the table only Bloomers and Tom Burn look like dropping out. However Lewis Burton and Jack Carpenter are very close to moving into the table (looks like Jack will be in and then drop out again with Gabb's performance this week). There are also a lot of young guns with potential to move up.(JWH, Broady, Bambridge, O'Mara etc)

The good news is that most of these players in the dangerzone are progressing up the rankings - Tom F, David Rice, Fitzy, Oli, Marcus, Marzi, Ashley etc so i can see the top 25 being a top 550 in the next few months.

In addition to this it's good to see more players going well in the 300 - 500 range. Neil Pauffley will hit a career high. Ed Corrie seems destined to moved into the next tier(Dan Evans will do on Monday). Alex Ward showed great promise on clay in ATP qualifying so could improve if he sticks to clay and then you have the likes of Kyle who should move up the rankings and the likes of Tom F, Ricey, Oli and Ashley who should break into this bracket quite quickly.

Yes, that's a good summary, and you're right about how easy it is to ignore the effect of points due to come off when discussing who is on the way up and who is on the way down.

I've noticed in the past that there are some players who nearly always do better in the 2nd half of the year than in the 1st. I can remember thinking every year that some players looked like they were going to fall away in the 2nd half of the year only to be surprised by how well their rankings held up over the following few months. This then often leaves them with a lot of scope for rises in the 1st half of the following year, only for them to revert to type and fail to take advantage!

If I remember right, Boggo has tended to do better in the summer in recent years - in fact, this year he has picked up more than 3 times as many points (49 cf. 16) in the first 24 weeks of the year as he did in the first 24 weeks of 2012! Jamie Baker, on the other hand, has tended to do better earlier in the year, so his position may be a bit more worrying.

I don't think any of these apparent trends are very strong though and whether or not they are likely to continue depends on the cause - it may be that tournaments and/or conditions at certain times of years suit certain players better but on the other hand, the differences may be more random than they look, perhaps dependent on when injuries and illness have occurred, particularly the kind of problems that might contribute to a loss of form without being serious enough to stop a player from playing.

By the way, overall the 24 highest-ranked GB men behind Muzz at the end of week 23 had picked up 942 points in the first 23 weeks of this year. That figure is 19% higher than last year (N.B. comparing with GB 2-25 at the same stage last year, not comparing the same players) and would no doubt look even better if I extended it to a higher number of players, since the players ranked GB 26-30, for example, have significantly higher rankings than the players who were just outside the GB top 25 at this stage last year.

-- Edited by steven on Tuesday 11th of June 2013 10:54:56 PM

Mid year report suggests generally positive news(for men):

Plenty of depth at the bottom of the rankings with plenty of players getting through quali's in 10k's and picking up points.

We should have at least 15 players inside the top 500. If Ashley wins tomorrow then it will be almost guaranteed after Wimbledon. In fact the majority of the top 15 will be 300-420, so it's very competitive.

What we need now is for players to break into the top 200(James W and Dan E) and some of the players in the 300-420 bracket breaking into the top 300

The other area we need to push on is getting players to fill the gap in the 700-900 bracket.

Review:

Murray - as good as ever
J Ward - capable of getting back to top 150 if he can get over the winning line in the bigger match as we knows he tends to struggle on the big points in big matches
D Evans - if he knuckles down and continues to improve definitely top 100 material. It's all down to how much he wants it.
B Klein - having a bad run, but ability must be there to get high enough in the rankings previously.
Boggo - just get the impression that the ability is still there, but the consistency isn't. Cannot see him getting much higher than 250
Josh G - nightmare of a season, falling down the rankings and rumours of retirement
Jamie B - battler, should be ranked in 200's, but struggled with injury
Ed Corrie - solid game, but lacks the big shots. Capable of top 300
Josh Milton - results suggest no further improvement can only see 350-400 ranking
Dan S - very inconsistent, not sure he has the ability to progress any further than 350
Alex Ward - seems to be performing in clay challengers and could easily get down to low 300's if he keeps to the clay.
Neil P - don't know what to make of Neil. Everyone seems to say he is the hardest worker, but results aren't showing and tends to under perform when expectations are high. May break 400
Kyle - judging on recent performances, he is our best prospect. potential top 100 player and should now make top 300 by end of year
David R - much improved singles player, who has specialised in doubles. Potential to be top 400 and play singles and doubles on the challenger circuit.
Slabba - slipping down the rankings, getting towards the end of his career.
Ashley - made big breakthroughs this year. Will break into the top 500 and probably capable of another 100 place jump
Dan C - Obvious ability, but very inconsistent. Should be able to get back to 400-450 if he can get his confidence back
Oli - one of our best prospects. Ability to get into top 300 short term and potential to play on the ATP tour in the next couple of years. Needs to control his emotions on court.
Marzi - some talent if he can keep fit, capable of breaking into top 500
Tom B - retired?
Marcus - lots of ability, but so inconsistent. Should break top 500 capable of getting into top 400 if he can string some performances together.
Fitzy - getting more consistent now and can definitely get to 400-450 short term
Gabb - bit of a surprise with some recent performances. Not sure he has the game to get much higher than 550 at the moment
Tom F - a player making big strides up the rankings. Some talent there and could make top 500
Jack - bit of a surprise with some recent performances. Not sure he has the game to get much higher than 600 at the moment


The best of the rest:

JWH - great potential could go a long way if he keeps progressing
Bloomers - ability is there, injuries seem to constantly prevent him competing
Luke B - one of the top juniors should progress upwards
Broady - loads of ability if he can sort of injury problems and get his head sorted
O'Mara - one of the top juniors should progress upwards
Hoyt -one of the top juniors should progress upwards